Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2020 Predictions:
- Playoffs - Conference: 0-2 (RF); 1-1 (LR)
- Playoffs - Division: 2-2 (RF); 4-0 (LR)
- Playoffs - Wild Card: 5-1 (RF); 3-3 (LR)
- Week 17: 13-3 (RF); 13-3 (LR)
- Week 16: 9-7 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
- Week 15: 11-5 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
- Week 14: Playoffs
- Week 14: 7-9 (RF); 9-7 (LR)
- Week 13: 10-5 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
- Week 12: 13-3 (RF); 12-4 (LR)
- Week 11: 6-8 (RF); 4-10 (LR)
- Week 10: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
- Week 9: 10-4 (RF); 12-2 (LR)
- Week 8: 9-5 (RF); 9-5 (LR)
- Week 7: 9-5 (RF); 10-4 (LR)
- Week 6: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
- Week 5: 9-5 (RF); 11-3 (LR)
- Week 4: 11-4 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
- Week 3: 0-0 (RF); 7-8-1 (LR)
- Week 2: 0-0 (RF); 8-8 (LR)
- Week 1: Kickoff
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Recap:
0-1 (LR) with 0.52 expected; 0-1 (RF) with 0.52 expected. Both models were wrong, I was wrong, and 538 splits. Don't bet against Tom Brady. Buccaneers soundly defeat the Chiefs, playing in their home stadium, 31-9. Don't bet against Tom Brady.
The season is over so its time for the season recap!
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Super Bowl:
Here we are at the end: the Super Bowl, with the Chiefs playing the Buccaneers.
The Chiefs have a repeat appearance from last year's Super Bowl victory. They had the best record in the regular season and have been consistently judged by my models to be the best team in the league. They have always been the #1 seed in my playoff predictions and have always been picked to win the Super Bowl. They certainly deserve to be here.
The Buccaneers under Tom Brady struggled in the middle of the season. Before their bye in week 13 they were 7-5. However, they won 4 straight to finish 11-5 with a Wild Card 5th seed and have been winning ever since, knocking off the Saints and Packers on their way. They have also climbed in my model's estimation. They started Week 14 as the predicted #6 seed getting knocked out in the Wild Card round, with a ranking of 15th in the league. By Week 17 they were the predicted 5th seed progressing to the Division round before losing as 13th in the league. They moved to 8th in Wild Card week, 9th in Division week, and 6th in Conference week as they continued to win again and again. What rank are they going into the Super Bowl? See below.
So who will win?
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
- Both models pick the Chiefs. 538 QB chooses the Chiefs while the 538 traditional model chooses the Buccaneers. The Chiefs won the last matchup in late November, 27 to 24. I know I'm not supposed to bet against Tom Brady, but I am picking the Chiefs.
Good luck!
Here are the predictions for the Super Bowl:
Playoffs:
How will the playoffs playout using the final seeding and game results? Using the LR model for one-time head-to-head matchup predictions:
- Wildcard:
- AFC
- Chiefs (1)-bye
- Bills (2) vs. Colts (7) -> Bills (2)
- Steelers (3) vs. Browns (6) -> Browns (6)
- Titans (4) vs. Ravens (5) -> Ravens (5)
- NFC
- Packers (1)- bye
- Saints (2) vs. Bears (7) -> Saints (2)
- Seahawks (3) vs. Rams (6) -> Rams (6)
- Washington (4) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5)
- Division:
- AFC
- Chiefs (1) vs. Browns (6) -> Chiefs (1)
- Bills (2) vs. Ravens (5) -> Bills (2)
- NFC
- Packers (1) vs. Rams (6) -> Packers (1)
- Saints (2) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5)
- Conference:
- AFC: Chiefs (1) vs. Bills (2) -> Chiefs (1)
- NFC: Packers (1) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5)
- Super Bowl:
- Chiefs (1) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.523)
The LR model still predicts that the Chiefs will go all the way and win the Super Bowl, but obviously its now against the Buccaneers. No need to run a Monte Carlo simulation this week as it would only tell us that the Chiefs have a 52.3% chance of winning the Super Bowl compared with the Buccaneer's 47.7% chance, with everyone else at a 0% chance.
Best Team:
What is the "best" team this week? If each team were to play every other team once, which team would have the most wins? By summing up the probabilities of each game matchup, the 32 game season would have a final top 5 rank of:
- Chiefs
- Packers
- Bills
- Buccaneers
- Saints
Packers move back down to 2 from 1 as Chiefs reclaim the top position. Bills remain at 3. Buccaneers jump to 4 from 6. Saints move to 5 from 7. Seahawks move to 6 from 4. Colts move to 8 from 5. The top 10 has become significantly more competitive as the Chiefs drop below 23 games to 22.955 expected. The Dolphins at 10 are at 19.692 expected wins. Ranks 3 - 5 round to 21 games and 6 - 10 round to 20 games. So the field is very close together in predicted wins.
By summing the outcome of each game matchup (1 point per win), the final top 5 rank would be:
- Chiefs
- Buccaneers
- Packers
- Bills
- Browns
Chiefs stay on top. Buccaneers move from 4 to 2. Packers slide to 3 from 2. Bills move to 4 from 3. Browns remain at 5. Interestingly and for the first time, we have some ties, as the Titans tie the Seahawks for 6th and the Dolphins tie the Colts for 8th. This is possible because:
- Seahawks beat the Titans but lose to the Colts
- Titans beat the Colts but lose to the Seahawks
Similarly:
- Dolphins beat the Colts but lose to the Seahawks
- Colts lose to the Dolphins but beat the Seahawks
I guess the transitive property doesn't hold (i.e., if A beats B and B beats C, then A beats C).
At this point, it looks like we have 4 top teams: the Chiefs, Packers, Bills, and Buccaneers. Two of those teams are in the Super Bowl and the other two lost in the Conference Championships, so the playoffs are at least matching this ranking pretty well.
The Chiefs are at the top of both lists and get the number 1 spot. Packers are ahead of the Bills in both lists as well. So the Buccaneers are the variable as they win lots of games narrowly while the Packers and Bills win fewer games but with a wider margin on average. So who is better? Of just those top 4 teams, the Chiefs win against the others (3), the Buccaneers win 2 (Packers-0.532 and Bills-0.53), the Packers win 1 (against the Bills-0.51), and the Bills win 0. The Packers have a 0.625 expected value margin on the Buccaneers while the Bills have a 0.277 expected value margin.
One can average the rankings and thereby split the difference between the two rankings, meaning that the Chiefs take first, the Packers take second, but the Buccaneers take third with the Bills moving into fourth. This seems to be a fair compromise. But in any case, it seems that the Chiefs are on top, with the Packers/Buccaneers likely fighting for second and third, and with the Bills in fourth.
We'll see if that remains true after this final game...
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