Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2020 Predictions:
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Recap:
12-4 (LR) with 10.21 expected, and 13-3 (RF) with 9.297 expected. I personally go 13-3. A very good week for predictions, but a weird week with Thanksgiving, changing game schedules, and Covid 19 illness impacts.
- Washington beats Cowboys as I thought they would. RF gets this but LR misses.
- Ravens lose to Steelers. Both models miss this as I thought they would. The game was originally scheduled for Thanksgiving, which is why it shows up that way in my data. Due to Covid 19 illnesses in both teams but primarily in the Ravens, it was moved to Sunday, then to Tuesday, then to Wednesday.
- Falcons crush Raiders 43-6, to my surprise. Both models get this right.
- Saints beat Broncos as I thought they would and as my models picked. Saints rookie QB played instead of their starter, but Broncos didn't even have a QB as all four Bronco QBs were disqualified due to Covid 19 restrictions. Their QB was actually a practice squad wide receiver that was promoted a couple hours before the game. Not a surprising end result given the circumstances.
- Giants beat the Bengals as I thought they would and as my models predicted.
- Colts lose to Titans, and Rams lose to 49ers in an exciting back and forth game with a field goal for the win. Misses for both models and myself.
On to next week which starts today! Time to get the next round of predictions ready.
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Week 12:
Happy Thanksgiving! A pretty bad round of predictions last week, but hoping it was an unlucky probabilistic fluke. No changes in the models except to retrain them with the latest data. The models disagree with each other on one game this week, and disagree with 538 on three games (QB adjusted) and 2 (traditional).
538's QB adjusted predictions (default) factor in a scoring of QBs, which impacts the overall traditional prediction. As quoted here, " Our quarterback-adjusted Elo model incorporates news reports to project likely starters for every upcoming game and uses our quarterback Elo ratings to adjust win probabilities for those games. A team’s current quarterback adjustment is based on possible starters in its next game and how much better or worse that QB is than the team’s top starter. "
As you can see based on the below predictions, most of the disagreement between my models and 538's QB adjusted predictions come down to whether the team's best QB is starting or injured and how good the QBs are. My models factor this in as well, but they don't appear to have as much influence as they do in 538's models.
16 games this week as no team has a bye.
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- Cowboys vs. Washington
- LR says Cowboys but RF says Washington. 538 says Washington (QB adjusted) and Cowboys (traditional). Both are 3-7 and Cowboys play at home. Cowboys are without their best QB but Washington has theirs. I'd go with Washington.
- Ravens vs. Steelers
- Both models surprisingly predict a Ravens victory, while 538 predicts Steelers (QB adjusted and traditional). Steelers are 10-0 and Ravens are 6-4. Steelers play at home. Injured QBs are not a factor here. Not sure what my models see that I don't, but going with the Steelers.
- Falcons vs. Raiders
- Both models pick Falcons while 538 picks Raiders (QB adjusted) and Falcons (traditional). Falcons are 3-7 and Raiders are 6-4. Falcons play at home. Both top QBs are playing. I think 538's model practically says that the Falcons are a better overall team but the Raiders have an even better QB, which is why the model changes when factoring in the QB. Personally going with Raiders.
- Saints vs. Broncos
- Both models pick Saints while 538 picks Broncos (QB adjusted) and Saints (traditional). Saints are 8-2 and Broncos are 4-6. Broncos play at home. The Saints starting QB is injured, which, after looking at the stats, is the only reason that makes sense to me why one would pick the Broncos to win. Not sure why 538 picks Broncos other than the replacement Saints QB is a rookie (and so has a low starting QB score). Sticking with the Saints.
- Giants vs. Bengals
- Both models pick Giants while 538 picks Giants (QB adjusted) and Bengals (traditional). Bengals are 2-7-1 and play at home. Giants are 3-7. Bengals best QB is injured. Giants have their starting QB and are coming off a bye. Sticking with Giants.
So staying with my models for 2 and disagreeing on 2 when they disagree with 538. Good luck and hope you have a great holiday weekend!
Here are the predictions for Week 12:
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