Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2020 Predictions:
- Week 13: 10-5 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
- Week 12: 13-3 (RF); 12-4 (LR)
- Week 11: 6-8 (RF); 4-10 (LR)
- Week 10: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
- Week 9: 10-4 (RF); 12-2 (LR)
- Week 8: 9-5 (RF); 9-5 (LR)
- Week 7: 9-5 (RF); 10-4 (LR)
- Week 6: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
- Week 5: 9-5 (RF); 11-3 (LR)
- Week 4: 11-4 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
- Week 3: 7-8-1 (LR)
- Week 2: 8-8 (LR)
- Week 1: Kickoff
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Recap:
9-7 (LR) with 10.633 expected, and 7-9 (RF) with 9.836 expected. As I anticipated, not a great week as there was too much disagreement in the models for any to do well. Personally I went 9-7. 538 goes 11-5 (QB) and 10-6 (traditional).
- Rams beat the Patriots. LR and myself correct; RF incorrect.
- Bills beat the Steelers. LR correct; RF and myself incorrect.
- Cowboys beat the Bengals. LR correct; RF and myself incorrect.
- Cardinals beat the Giants. LR and myself incorrect; RF correct.
- Washington beats the 49ers. LR and myself correct; RF incorrect.
- Ravens beat the Browns. LR incorrect; RF and myself correct.
- Bears beat the Texans. LR, RF, and myself incorrect.
- Buccaneers beat the Vikings. LR and RF incorrect; myself correct.
- Chargers beat the Falcons. LR, RF, and myself incorrect.
- Broncos beat the Panthers. LR, RF, and myself incorrect.
- Eagles beat the Saints. LR, RF, and myself incorrect.
The models and myself missed three "uncontentious games" in addition to generally splitting on the contentious games. Given the above, sort of surprised it wasn't worse.
Moving on to next week.
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Week 14:
Four weeks left before the playoffs! No changes in the models except to retrain them with the latest data. The models disagree with each other on six games this week, and disagree with 538 on two others. So half of the games are in contention. Lots of disagreement in the models so doubtful that it is going to be a good week for any model (unless one model gets really lucky). 16 games this week as no one has a bye.
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- Rams vs. Patriots
- LR chooses Rams but RF chooses Patriots. 538 chooses Rams (QB and traditional). Rams play at home and are 8-6. Patriots are 6-6. Going with the Rams.
- Bills vs. Steelers
- LR chooses Bills but RF chooses Steelers. 538 chooses Bills (QB and traditional). Bills are 9-3 and play at home. Steelers are 11-1. Steelers have had an easier schedule than Bills. Will Steelers lose two in a row after being undefeated? I don't see a good reason for betting against them. Picking the Steelers.
- Cowboys vs. Bengals
- LR chooses Cowboys and RF chooses Bengals. 538 chooses Cowboys (QB) and Bengals (traditional). Bengals play at home and are 2-9-1. Cowboys are 3-9. Both top QBs are out. Meh. Picking the Bengals.
- Giants vs. Cardinals
- LR chooses Giants and RF chooses Cardinals. 538 chooses Cardinals (QB) and Giants (traditional). Giants are 5-7 and play at home. Cardinals are 6-6. Giants just beat the Seahawks and have won the past 4 games they have played. They have had a decently tough schedule. Cardinals have lost the last 3 and have also had a pretty tough schedule. Surprised I am saying this, but choosing the Giants.
- Washington vs. 49ers
- LR chooses Washington and RF chooses 49ers. 538 chooses 49ers (QB and traditional). 49ers play at home and are 5-7. Washington is 5-7 as well. Washington has won past 3 games, including against the Steelers. Their schedule has been sort of easy recently except for Steelers. 49ers have been struggling. Leaning towards Washington (another surprising statement).
- Browns vs. Ravens
- LR chooses Browns and RF chooses Ravens. 538 chooses Ravens (QB and traditional). Browns play at home and are 9-3. Ravens are 7-5. Interesting that Browns have fewer points scored per game than points allowed per game, and yet they are 9-3. I think a lot of that comes from the first game in which they got blown out by the Ravens 38-6, and another game against the Steelers 38-7. A lot of their wins are against bad teams. I think the Ravens have had a slightly tougher schedule. I think I am going with the Ravens.
- Texans vs. Bears
- Both models choose Texans but 538 chooses Bears (QB and traditional). Bears play at home and are 5-7. Texans are 4-8. Texans have had a tough schedule. So have Bears. Bears are on losing streak of 6. I'm sticking with the Texans.
- Vikings vs. Buccaneers
- Both models choose Vikings but 538 (QB and traditional) chooses Buccaneers. Buccaneers play at home and are 7-5. Vikings are 6-6. Apart from a win over the Packers, I am not very impressed with the Vikings. Buccaneers beat the Packers as well. Definitely going with the Buccaneers.
Too many games to weigh in on personally. Splitting myself between the two models, and siding with 538 on one of the two conflicts with my models. So I guess I am somewhere in the middle of this week's mess. Hopefully next week is more straightforward.
Good luck!
Here are the predictions for Week 14:
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