Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2020 Predictions:
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Recap:
8-6 for both RF and LR. The expected value for LR was 8.581 and for RF it was 8.06. So the models performed as expected.
Both of my disagreeing picks with 538 were incorrect, although Lions won as I personally thought they would. The biggest surprise was the Packers loss to the Buccaneers. Looks like Packers took an early lead, but with two interceptions that lead to touchdowns, the momentum shifted and the Buccaneers were able to score on offense and shutdown Rogers on defense to a huge victory over the Packers. The Cardinal's victory over the Cowboys was also pretty crushing, and coincidentally, the final score was the same as the Buccaneers/Packers game: 38 - 10.
On to week 7.
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Week 6:
Somedays just getting the model to run is a challenge. Due to game schedule changes, changing schemas in data sources, and 'NA' values popping up in new places that caused the models to fail, simply getting the predictions output was no small feat. So no new changes in the model this week, but at least I have some predictions before game time. The models agree with each other on every prediction this week, so that's nice.
Only 14 games this week. Seahawks, Raiders, Saints, and Chargers have a bye.
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- Jaguars vs. Lions
- My models pick Jaguars but 538 picks Lions. Lions are 1-3 and Jaguars are 1-4 but playing at home. Lions have definitely had a harder set of opponents so far but have kept pretty close. Personally I'd pick the Lions.
- Cowboys vs. Cardinals
- My models pick Cowboys but 538 picks Cardinals. Cowboys are 2-3 while Cardinals are 3-2. Cowboys play at home. Cowboys put up large points but their opponents have put up larger. I think they have played slightly better teams than Cardinals. I'm still inclined to go with Cowboys.
All other picks are in agreement with 538, so I guess I didn't mess it up too bad, right? Good luck in week 6!
Here are the predictions for Week 6:
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