Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
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Kickoff
I last did football predictions for the 2017 season, and even then only for the playoffs. It's been over two years since I ran the code to ingest data and output predictions and analysis of the regular and post NFL seasons. However, after completing my MS Data Science degree and having work and life somewhat calm down again, I have taken this up again for the 2020 season.
Who really knows how the season will play out? With many players sitting out due to concerns over the virus, with games and schedules likely to be changed or canceled, with no-preseason to get teams ready for the regular season, I don't really know how well training data from past years will predict this year's game outcomes.
However, with low expectations for the season, perhaps it is the perfect time to try new things in code, debug, retrain, experiment, and otherwise develop and advance this yearly NFL prediction and analysis effort. At the very least, it is a good time to try and get this going again. Accordingly, I will do so as time permits, while recognizing that I also do not know what my life holds in the coming months and will likely need to adjust.
My plan is to at least do predictions and recap every week starting with the second week of the regular season. Games start tomorrow, so look for my first round of predictions a week from now. Time to get coding...
Good luck!
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