Previous predictions:
_________________________________________________________________________________
Recap Week 17:
11-5. Much better than last week. With the probabilities I listed the expected outcome was 10 correct predictions (20% likely). 11 correct predictions was 19% likely. To my surprise, the 49ers did beat the Rams, and the Seahawks clobbered the Cardinals. But the Redskins did in fact beat the Cowboys. Biggest upset: Patriots lost to the Dolphins.
Full results are below. On to the playoffs!
_________________________________________________________________________________11-5. Much better than last week. With the probabilities I listed the expected outcome was 10 correct predictions (20% likely). 11 correct predictions was 19% likely. To my surprise, the 49ers did beat the Rams, and the Seahawks clobbered the Cardinals. But the Redskins did in fact beat the Cowboys. Biggest upset: Patriots lost to the Dolphins.
Full results are below. On to the playoffs!
Week 17:
Happy New Year! Still no new code changes. As we are soon moving into the playoffs, new code changes will likely have to wait until the offseason unless I have more time than expected in the month of January. Below are the predictions according to my current models.
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
-49ers predicted to beat Rams, but I am inclined to think this is wrong. I'd pick the Rams over the 49ers. The Rams play really well in the division.
-Seahawks predicted to beat the Cardinals. However, since the Seahawks looked really bad last week and the Cardinals have been so consistently good, I think the model is probably wrong in this prediction. Of course, as a Seahawks fan, I hope my model is correct.
-Cowboys predicted to beat the Redskins. This also seems incorrect. Redskins are doing well and Cowboys are not. I believe the model is biased against teams that haven't made the playoffs in a while, hence, the dislike for the Rams and Redskins.
We shall see. Good luck in Week 17!
Here are the predictions for Week 17:
|
Week
|
Date
|
Team
|
Home Away
|
Opponent
|
Prob. Win
|
Pred. Team Win
|
Actual Team Win
|
Pred. Team PD
|
Actual Team PD
|
Pred. Team
Score
|
Pred. Opp.
Score
|
Actual Team
Score
|
Actual Opp.
Score
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
49ers
|
Rams
|
0.637
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
23
|
19
|
19
|
16
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Bears
|
Lions
|
0.383
|
0
|
0
|
-7
|
-4
|
20
|
25
|
20
|
24
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Bengals
|
Ravens
|
0.668
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
8
|
23
|
17
|
24
|
16
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Bills
|
Jets
|
0.465
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
5
|
21
|
18
|
22
|
17
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Broncos
|
Chargers
|
0.58
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
7
|
24
|
20
|
27
|
20
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Browns
|
Steelers
|
0.319
|
0
|
0
|
-5
|
-16
|
19
|
24
|
12
|
28
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Buccaneers
|
@
|
Panthers
|
0.237
|
0
|
0
|
-7
|
-28
|
20
|
28
|
10
|
38
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Cardinals
|
Seahawks
|
0.474
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
-30
|
24
|
22
|
6
|
36
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Chargers
|
@
|
Broncos
|
0.42
|
0
|
0
|
-5
|
-7
|
20
|
24
|
20
|
27
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Chiefs
|
Raiders
|
0.533
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
6
|
24
|
22
|
23
|
17
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Colts
|
Titans
|
0.642
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
22
|
16
|
30
|
24
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Cowboys
|
Redskins
|
0.774
|
1
|
0
|
8
|
-11
|
29
|
24
|
23
|
34
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Dolphins
|
Patriots
|
0.287
|
0
|
1
|
-5
|
10
|
21
|
26
|
20
|
10
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Eagles
|
@
|
Giants
|
0.531
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
5
|
27
|
22
|
35
|
30
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Falcons
|
Saints
|
0.615
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
-3
|
22
|
24
|
17
|
20
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Giants
|
Eagles
|
0.469
|
0
|
0
|
-3
|
-5
|
22
|
27
|
30
|
35
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Jaguars
|
@
|
Texans
|
0.312
|
0
|
0
|
-7
|
-24
|
21
|
27
|
6
|
30
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Jets
|
@
|
Bills
|
0.535
|
1
|
0
|
-3
|
-5
|
18
|
21
|
17
|
22
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Lions
|
@
|
Bears
|
0.617
|
1
|
1
|
7
|
4
|
25
|
20
|
24
|
20
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Packers
|
Vikings
|
0.554
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
-7
|
24
|
23
|
13
|
20
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Panthers
|
Buccaneers
|
0.763
|
1
|
1
|
7
|
28
|
28
|
20
|
38
|
10
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Patriots
|
@
|
Dolphins
|
0.713
|
1
|
0
|
5
|
-10
|
26
|
21
|
10
|
20
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Raiders
|
@
|
Chiefs
|
0.467
|
0
|
0
|
-2
|
-6
|
22
|
24
|
17
|
23
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Rams
|
@
|
49ers
|
0.363
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
-3
|
19
|
23
|
16
|
19
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Ravens
|
@
|
Bengals
|
0.332
|
0
|
0
|
-5
|
-8
|
17
|
23
|
16
|
24
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Redskins
|
@
|
Cowboys
|
0.226
|
0
|
1
|
-8
|
11
|
24
|
29
|
34
|
23
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Saints
|
@
|
Falcons
|
0.385
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
3
|
24
|
22
|
20
|
17
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Seahawks
|
@
|
Cardinals
|
0.526
|
1
|
1
|
-1
|
30
|
22
|
24
|
36
|
6
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Steelers
|
@
|
Browns
|
0.681
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
16
|
24
|
19
|
28
|
12
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Texans
|
Jaguars
|
0.688
|
1
|
1
|
7
|
24
|
27
|
21
|
30
|
6
| |
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Titans
|
@
|
Colts
|
0.358
|
0
|
0
|
-5
|
-6
|
16
|
22
|
24
|
30
|
17
|
1/3/2016
|
Vikings
|
@
|
Packers
|
0.446
|
0
|
1
|
-2
|
7
|
23
|
24
|
20
|
13
|
