2020 NFL Game Predictions: Week 11

 Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2020 Predictions:

• Week 10: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
• Week 9: 10-4 (RF); 12-2 (LR)
• Week 8: 9-5 (RF); 9-5 (LR)
• Week 7: 9-5 (RF); 10-4 (LR)
• Week 6: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
• Week 5: 9-5 (RF); 11-3 (LR)
• Week 4: 11-4 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
• Week 3: 7-8-1 (LR)
• Week 2: 8-8 (LR)
• Week 1: Kickoff

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Recap:

4-10 (LR) with 8.583 expected, and 6-8 (RF) with 8.36 expected.  Terrible week, but it's bound to happen every now and then.  In fact, running a simulation of 100,000 weeks with the probabilities given in the LR model, getting a result of 4 games or fewer will occur about 1% of the time, and 6 games or fewer will occur about 12% of the time.  So very rare, but not impossible.

As the models have gotten really lucky in the past, this week they were really unlucky, despite being in agreement largely with each other and with 538.  The disagreements between LR and RF (Bengals vs. Washington and Eagles vs. Browns) both went for RF this week, which is why it did two games better.  This is the first time RF did better than LR, although it is still behind LR overall.

• Seahawks beat Cardinals, thankfully, against my models and my personal prediction.  It was a back and forth game and could have easily gone the other way.
• Bengals lose to Washington, and Eagles lose to Browns.  RF picks up both predictions and LR misses both.
• Dolphins lose to Broncos, Lions get shut out by Panthers (ouch), Packers lose to Colts in OT, Patriots lose to Texans, Ravens lose to Titans, Vikings lose to Cowboys (really?), and as I thought might happen, Buccaneers lose to Rams.

Jets are without a win at 0-10.  Steelers are still undefeated at 10-0.  NFC East has no one over .500 as each team has only won 3 games.  AFC North and NFC West both have 3 teams over .500.

On to next week!

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Week 11:

No changes in the models except to retrain them with the latest data. The models disagree with each other on two games this week, and disagree with 538 on one.  So predictions are pretty consistent.

14 games this week. Bills, Bears, Giants, and 49ers have a bye.

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

• Bengals vs. Washington
• Bengals predicted to win by LR but lose by RF.  Bengals play away.  538 picks Washington.  Washington is 2-7 and Bengals are 2-6-1.  I was sort of leaning to Bengals victory as they appear to have kept games closer than Washington.  But Alex Smith is back as QB for Washington and has kept the past two games close.  I don't know.
• Eagles vs. Browns
• Eagles predicted to win by LR but lose by RF. Eagles play away. 538 picks Browns.  Browns are 6-3 and Eagles are 3-5-1.  Eagles have played better teams but have been very inconsistent.  Going with the Browns.
• Cardinals vs. Seahawks
• Both models predict a Cardinals victory, but 538 predicts a Seahawks.  I hope 538 is correct.  Cardinals play away.  Both are 6-3.  Cardinals won the last round in overtime and have been playing well.  Seahawks have not been looking good on both offense and especially defense.  I'm inclined to predict Cardinals victory.
• Buccaneers vs. Rams
• The models and 538 agree on a Buccaneers victory.  Buccaneers play at home. Not inclined to disagree but a Rams victory wouldn't surprise me.

Good luck!

Here are the predictions for Week 11: