Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2020 Predictions:
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Recap:
11-4 (LR) with expected 9.642, and 10-5 (RF) with 9.677 expected. The models performed as expected. Interesting that the RF had a higher expected value than LR, as it has previously always been more conservative in its estimates. Personally, I went 11-4.
- Lions beat the Bears. Bears had the lead all the way until late in the 4th quarter when the Bears QB was stripped of the ball, which was recovered by the Lions, leading to a touchdown. Tough loss. LR correct; RF and myself incorrect.
- Saints beat Falcons as Saints keep the lead through the whole game. LR, RF, and myself correct.
- Colts beat Texans. LR and RF incorrect; myself correct.
- Bills beat 49ers. LR, RF, and myself correct.
- Seahawks lose to Giants. Terrible. From a probability perspective, this was the biggest upset of the week as the models gave an average of 62% likelihood of Seahawks win. LR, RF, and myself incorrect.
- Titans lose to Browns. Browns took early lead and never gave it up. LR, RF, and myself incorrect.
- Steelers lose to Washington, ending their undefeated season. Steelers led until halfway through 4th quarter when Washington tied. Washington took the lead at 2 minutes with a field goal. An interception led to another Washington field goal in final seconds before the end of the game. Models gave an average of 59% probability of Steelers victory. LR, RF, and myself incorrect.
Steelers are no longer undefeated, but Jets are still winless.
On to week 14!
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Week 13:
Happy Friday! Due to the Steelers/Ravens game being postponed until Wednesday this past week, the data for the model was not completely available until Friday morning. Fortunately, as there was no Thursday game (the Ravens were supposed to play the Cowboys but that has been pushed to Tuesday), my predictions will still be made before any game has been played for the week.
No changes in the models except to retrain them with the latest data. I am starting to think about the playoffs and will hopefully start making some playoff predictions in the next few weeks.
The models disagree with each other on one game this week, and disagree with 538 on two games (QB adjusted) and one (traditional).
15 games this week as Panthers and Buccaneers both have a bye.
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- Bears vs. Lions
- LR picks Lions but RF picks Bears. 538 picks Bears (QB adjusted and traditional). Bears play at home and are 5-6 while Lions are 4-7. Bears QB is injured but currently listed as "probable" (though he was "doubtful") and Lions QB is injured and listed as "questionable" (but he played last week). The model data interprets this based on each team's injury history that Bears will be without their starting QB but Lions will have theirs. LR relies on the QB presence more heavily than RF, which is why I think it swings to favoring the Lions in the absence of the Bears' top QB whereas RF isn't as easily influenced by this and sticks with the Bears. Bears won the last matchup but are on a losing streak. Bears have kept their losses closer than Lions have. It may depend on which QBs show up to play, but I'd pick the Bears to win this if both top QBs are in the game. However, latest reports say backup Bears QB is starting while Lions top QB is starting. I have to pick one so.... going with the Bears.
- Saints vs. Falcons
- Both models choose Saints. 538 QB adjusted picks Falcons but traditional picks Saints. Falcons play at home and are 4-7 while Saints are 9-2. Saints starting QB is injured but Falcons QB is healthy. I'm still picking the Saints.
- Texans vs. Colts
- Both models choose Texans. 538 QB adjusted picks Colts but traditional picks Texans. Texans are at home and are 4-7 while Colts are 7-4. Colts QB is "questionable" Apart from beating the Packers, the Colts haven't beaten any really good teams. They did beat Titans once but lost last week to them so that doesn't help. Texans haven't beaten any really good teams. If Colts starting QB plays I'd probably pick them, and the latest reports say he will. Picking the Colts.
- Bills vs. 49ers
- Both models choose Bills. 538 QB adjusted picks Bills as well but traditional picks 49ers. 49ers play at home and are 5-6 while Bills are 8-3. 49ers former starting QB is on injured reserve, but current QB starter is not injured and is scheduled to play. Bills starting QB is "probable". 49ers lineup is pretty injured. Bills have done better against a comparatively similar schedule. Sticking with the Bills.
Good luck!
Here are the predictions for Week 13:
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