Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2020 Predictions:
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8-6 (LR) with 9.309 expected and 8-6 (RF) with 8.527 expected. Not a great week as I would have hoped for 9-5, but it balances out with last week. 538 gets 9-5. My personal inclinations get 10-4.
- Titans lose to Colts. Both models miss.
- Bills lose to Cardinals. Both models miss.
- Broncos lose to Raiders. LR missed this but RF got this. I personally thought this would happen.
- Lions beat Washington. LR got this correct but RF missed this. My personal pick of Lions was correct.
- Eagles lose to Giants.
- Ravens lose to Patriots.
- Seahawks lose to Rams as I personally suspected they would. Both models missed this.
- Vikings beat the Bears as the models and I personally thought they would.
On to next week!
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Week 10:
Good showing last week with both models. No changes in the models except to retrain them with the latest data. I fixed a minor bug in code that projected the starters based on current injuries. The models disagree with each other on two games this week, and disagree with 538 on two others.
14 games this week. Chiefs, Cowboys, Falcons, and Jets have a bye.
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- Broncos vs. Raiders
- LR picks Broncos but RF picks Raiders. 538 picks Raiders at 64%. Raiders play at home. Raiders are 5-3 and Broncos are 3-5. Raiders have beaten the Saints, Chiefs, and Browns. Broncos have only won against moderate or weak teams. Definitely picking the Raiders.
- Lions vs. Washington
- LR picks Lions but RF picks Washington. 538 picks Lions at 53%. Lions are 3-5 and Washington is 2-6. Lions play at home. Picking the Lions.
- Seahawks vs. Rams
- Both models pick Seahawks but 538 picks Rams at 50% (essentially a toss up). Rams are 5-3 and Seahawks are 6-2. Rams play at home. Looks like an offense (Seahawks) vs. defense (Rams) matchup. Seahawks are pretty banged up and Rams had a bye last week. Seahawks have definitely had a tougher schedule so far, but they didn't look very good last week. I hope I am wrong but I am sort of leaning towards the Rams given the bye week and the current condition of the Seahawks team.
- Vikings vs. Bears
- Both models pick Vikings but 538 picks Bears at 56%. Bears play at home. Bears are 5-4 and Vikings are 3-5. It seems like a pretty good matchup. Bears have lost the last couple while Vikings have won the last couple and they look healthier. I'm kind of leaning towards the Vikings.
Good luck!
Here are the predictions for Week 10:
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