Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2020 Predictions:
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Recap:
9-5 (LR) and 9-5 (RF). The LR model had an expected value of 8.879 while the RF model had an expected value of 8.219. So both models behaved as expected.
Falcons did win despite my personal reservations. Chargers lose by 1 to the Broncos after giving up 21 points in the 4th quarter. Dolphins do beat the Rams in accordance with my models and my personal choice. Ravens lose to Steelers so Steelers remain undefeated.
Big surprises? Packers lose to Vikings and Titans lose to Bengals. Ouch.
Average week. On to the next week.
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Week 8:
No changes in the models except to retrain them with the latest data. The models agree on all outcomes this week. I have noticed that the linear regression model tends to have more extreme probabilities than the random forest model. I would have thought that it was overly confident except that so far it has been doing a slightly better job predicting than the random forest model. It will be interesting to see if that continues to be true, or if probabilities that are much higher do tend to win more often (as they should). Some post season comparison and analysis should yield some interesting results.
14 games this week. Cardinals, Jaguars, Texans, and Washington have a bye.
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- Falcons vs. Panthers
- Both models choose Falcons but 538 chooses Panthers. Falcons are 1-6 and Panthers are 3-4. Falcons previously lost to Panthers and found a way to lose to Lions last week. I'd personally pick the Panthers.
- Chargers vs. Broncos
- Both models choose Chargers but 538 chooses Broncos. Both teams are 2-4. Broncos have played a lot of good teams and beat the Patriots. Chargers have played relatively good teams as well, kept games close, and are coming off a win. I think I side with the Chargers on this one.
- Dolphins vs. Rams
- Both models choose Dolphins to beat the Rams. This is very surprising. 538 chooses Rams, as I would have initially thought. Dolphins are 3-3 while Rams are 5-2. Both lost to Bills but Dolphins beat 49ers while Rams lost. Dolphins are coming off a bye week. Surprisingly, after looking at the stats, my gut is leaning towards Dolphins.
- Ravens vs. Steelers
- My models and 538 agree: Ravens victory. Predicting an end to the undefeated season of the Steelers.
So a difference of 3 predictions compared with 538, and I personally side with my models on 2 of those. We shall see if that was wise or foolish. Good luck!
Here are the predictions for Week 8:
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