2020 NFL Game Predictions: Super Bowl, Playoffs, Best Team

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2020 Predictions:

• Playoffs - Conference: 0-2 (RF); 1-1 (LR)
• Playoffs - Division: 2-2 (RF); 4-0 (LR)
• Playoffs - Wild Card: 5-1 (RF); 3-3 (LR)
• Week 17: 13-3 (RF); 13-3 (LR)
• Week 16: 9-7 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
• Week 15: 11-5 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
• Week 14: Playoffs
• Week 14: 7-9 (RF); 9-7 (LR)
• Week 13: 10-5 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
• Week 12: 13-3 (RF); 12-4 (LR)
• Week 11: 6-8 (RF); 4-10 (LR)
• Week 10: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
• Week 9: 10-4 (RF); 12-2 (LR)
• Week 8: 9-5 (RF); 9-5 (LR)
• Week 7: 9-5 (RF); 10-4 (LR)
• Week 6: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
• Week 5: 9-5 (RF); 11-3 (LR)
• Week 4: 11-4 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
• Week 3: 0-0 (RF); 7-8-1 (LR)
• Week 2: 0-0 (RF); 8-8 (LR)
• Week 1: Kickoff

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Recap:

0-1 (LR) with 0.52 expected; 0-1 (RF) with 0.52 expected.  Both models were wrong, I was wrong, and 538 splits.  Don't bet against Tom Brady.  Buccaneers soundly defeat the Chiefs, playing in their home stadium, 31-9.  Don't bet against Tom Brady.  

The season is over so its time for the season recap!

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Super Bowl:

Here we are at the end: the Super Bowl, with the Chiefs playing the Buccaneers.

The Chiefs have a repeat appearance from last year's Super Bowl victory.  They had the best record in the regular season and have been consistently judged by my models to be the best team in the league. They have always been the #1 seed in my playoff predictions and have always been picked to win the Super Bowl.  They certainly deserve to be here.

The Buccaneers under Tom Brady struggled in the middle of the season.  Before their bye in week 13 they were 7-5.  However, they won 4 straight to finish 11-5 with a Wild Card 5th seed and have been winning ever since, knocking off the Saints and Packers on their way.  They have also climbed in my model's estimation.  They started Week 14 as the predicted #6 seed getting knocked out in the Wild Card round, with a ranking of 15th in the league.  By Week 17 they were the predicted 5th seed progressing to the Division round before losing as 13th in the league.  They moved to 8th in Wild Card week, 9th in Division week, and 6th in Conference week as they continued to win again and again.  What rank are they going into the Super Bowl?  See below.

So who will win?

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

• Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
• Both models pick the Chiefs.  538 QB chooses the Chiefs while the 538 traditional model chooses the Buccaneers.  The Chiefs won the last matchup in late November, 27 to 24.  I know I'm not supposed to bet against Tom Brady, but I am picking the Chiefs.

Good luck!

Here are the predictions for the Super Bowl:

Playoffs:

How will the playoffs playout using the final seeding and game results?  Using the LR model for one-time head-to-head matchup predictions:

• Wildcard:
• AFC
• Chiefs (1)-bye
• Bills (2) vs. Colts (7) -> Bills (2)
• Steelers (3) vs. Browns (6) -> Browns (6)
• Titans (4) vs. Ravens (5) -> Ravens (5)
• NFC
• Packers (1)- bye
• Saints (2) vs. Bears (7) -> Saints (2)
• Seahawks (3) vs. Rams (6) -> Rams (6)
• Washington (4) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5)
• Division:
• AFC
• Chiefs (1) vs. Browns (6) -> Chiefs (1)
• Bills (2) vs. Ravens (5) ->  Bills (2)
• NFC
• Packers (1) vs. Rams (6) -> Packers (1)
• Saints (2) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5)
• Conference:
• AFC: Chiefs (1) vs. Bills (2) -> Chiefs (1)
• NFC: Packers (1) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5)
• Super Bowl:
• Chiefs (1) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.523)

The LR model still predicts that the Chiefs will go all the way and win the Super Bowl, but obviously its now against the Buccaneers. No need to run a Monte Carlo simulation this week as it would only tell us that the Chiefs have a 52.3% chance of winning the Super Bowl compared with the Buccaneer's 47.7% chance, with everyone else at a 0% chance.

Best Team:

What is the "best" team this week?  If each team were to play every other team once, which team would have the most wins?  By summing up the probabilities of each game matchup, the 32 game season would have a final top 5 rank of:

1. Chiefs
2. Packers
3. Bills
4. Buccaneers
5. Saints

Packers move back down to 2 from 1 as Chiefs reclaim the top position.  Bills remain at 3.  Buccaneers jump to 4 from 6.  Saints move to 5 from 7.  Seahawks move to 6 from 4.  Colts move to 8 from 5.  The top 10 has become significantly more competitive as the Chiefs drop below 23 games to 22.955 expected. The Dolphins at 10 are at 19.692 expected wins.  Ranks 3 - 5 round to 21 games and 6 - 10 round to 20 games.  So the field is very close together in predicted wins.

By summing the outcome of each game matchup (1 point per win), the final top 5 rank would be:

1. Chiefs
2. Buccaneers
3. Packers
4. Bills
5. Browns

Chiefs stay on top.  Buccaneers move from 4 to 2.  Packers slide to 3 from 2.  Bills move to 4 from 3.  Browns remain at 5.  Interestingly and for the first time, we have some ties, as the Titans tie the Seahawks for 6th and the Dolphins tie the Colts for 8th.  This is possible because:

• Seahawks beat the Titans but lose to the Colts
• Titans beat the Colts but lose to the Seahawks

Similarly:

• Dolphins beat the Colts but lose to the Seahawks
• Colts lose to the Dolphins but beat the Seahawks

I guess the transitive property doesn't hold (i.e., if A beats B and B beats C, then A beats C).

At this point, it looks like we have 4 top teams: the Chiefs, Packers, Bills, and Buccaneers.  Two of those teams are in the Super Bowl and the other two lost in the Conference Championships, so the playoffs are at least matching this ranking pretty well.

The Chiefs are at the top of both lists and get the number 1 spot.  Packers are ahead of the Bills in both lists as well.  So the Buccaneers are the variable as they win lots of games narrowly while the Packers and Bills win fewer games but with a wider margin on average.  So who is better?  Of just those top 4 teams, the Chiefs win against the others (3), the Buccaneers win 2 (Packers-0.532 and Bills-0.53), the Packers win 1 (against the Bills-0.51), and the Bills win 0.  The Packers have a 0.625 expected value margin on the Buccaneers while the Bills have a 0.277 expected value margin.

One can average the rankings and thereby split the difference between the two rankings, meaning that the Chiefs take first, the Packers take second, but the Buccaneers take third with the Bills moving into fourth.  This seems to be a fair compromise.  But in any case, it seems that the Chiefs are on top, with the Packers/Buccaneers likely fighting for second and third, and with the Bills in fourth.

We'll see if that remains true after this final game...

2020 NFL Game Predictions: Conference Championships, Playoffs, Best Team

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2020 Predictions:

• Playoffs - Division: 2-2 (RF); 4-0 (LR)
• Playoffs - Wild Card: 5-1 (RF); 3-3 (LR)
• Week 17: 13-3 (RF); 13-3 (LR)
• Week 16: 9-7 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
• Week 15: 11-5 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
• Week 14: Playoffs
• Week 14: 7-9 (RF); 9-7 (LR)
• Week 13: 10-5 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
• Week 12: 13-3 (RF); 12-4 (LR)
• Week 11: 6-8 (RF); 4-10 (LR)
• Week 10: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
• Week 9: 10-4 (RF); 12-2 (LR)
• Week 8: 9-5 (RF); 9-5 (LR)
• Week 7: 9-5 (RF); 10-4 (LR)
• Week 6: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
• Week 5: 9-5 (RF); 11-3 (LR)
• Week 4: 11-4 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
• Week 3: 0-0 (RF); 7-8-1 (LR)
• Week 2: 0-0 (RF); 8-8 (LR)
• Week 1: Kickoff

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Recap:

1-1 (LR) with 1.05 expected; 0-2 (RF) with 1.078 expected.  Buccaneers upset the Packers but Chiefs beat the Bills as expected.  Tom Brady gets to go to the Super Bowl again.  I guess the lesson now is not so much "don't bet against the Patriots" but "don't bet against Tom Brady".  Personally disappointed that the Packers lost but glad that the Chiefs made it through.

• Packers vs. Buccaneers
• Buccaneers scored first, Packers tied, but Buccaneers took the lead again and never let go.  Everyone misses.
• Chiefs vs. Bills
• Bills were up 9-0, but Chiefs got 3 consecutive touchdowns and never lost the lead.  LR, myself, 538 correct; RF incorrect.

On to the Super Bowl!

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Conference Championships:

Four teams left as we move to the conference championships: Chiefs vs. Bills, Packers vs. Buccaneers.  Two games this week.  The models disagree on 1 of the 2 games.  538 is in agreement between QB and traditional models.  It sides with LR on both games.

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

• Chiefs vs. Bills
• LR picks the Chiefs and RF barely picks the Bills.  538 picks the Chiefs.  A major factor in this is whether or not the Chiefs' top QB will be starting after sustaining a concussion.  The models currently assume he will be playing.  I pick the Chiefs if their top QB does play.  If not, I'm not sure....
• Packers vs. Buccaneers
• All models pick the Packers.  I agree: Packers will win.

Good luck!

Here are the predictions for the Conference Championships:

Playoffs:

How will the playoffs playout using the final seeding and game results?  Using the LR model for one-time head-to-head matchup predictions:

• Wildcard:
• AFC
• Chiefs (1)-bye
• Bills (2) vs. Colts (7) -> Bills (2)
• Steelers (3) vs. Browns (6) -> Browns (6)
• Titans (4) vs. Ravens (5) -> Ravens (5)
• NFC
• Packers (1)- bye
• Saints (2) vs. Bears (7) -> Saints (2)
• Seahawks (3) vs. Rams (6) -> Rams (6)
• Washington (4) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5)
• Division:
• AFC
• Chiefs (1) vs. Browns (6) -> Chiefs (1)
• Bills (2) vs. Ravens (5) ->  Bills (2)
• NFC
• Packers (1) vs. Rams (6) -> Packers (1)
• Saints (2) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5)
• Conference:
• AFC: Chiefs (1) vs. Bills (2) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.522)
• NFC: Packers (1) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Packers (1) - (0.528)
• Super Bowl:
• Chiefs (1) vs. Packers (1) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.510)

The LR model still predicts that the Chiefs will go all the way and win the Super Bowl against the Packers.  No changes in game outcomes in Conference Championships or Super Bowl.

If we run this as a Monte Carlo simulation with the seeding fixed, played games fixed, and 50,000 runs, we get the following result:

Chiefs are still on top but are practically tied with the Packers like last week.  Bills stay at third and Buccaneers are fourth still, but are a much closer fourth than last week after beating the Saints.

Best Team:

What is the "best" team this week?  If each team were to play every other team once, which team would have the most wins?  By summing up the probabilities of each game matchup, the 32 game season would have a final top 5 rank of:

1. Packers
2. Chiefs
3. Bills
4. Seahawks
5. Colts

Packers take over the top position (from 2) as Chiefs slide to 2 from 1.  Bills stay at 3. Seahawks surprisingly jump to 4 (from 7), and Colts move to 5 (from 10).  Buccaneers move from 9 to 6, Saints move from 5 to 7, and Titans move from 4 to 8.  I should note that the difference between the Seahawks at 4 and the Steelers at 10 is less than a single game.  While slight changes in the probabilities are dramatically changing the ordering, there are very few if any major differences in the quality of these teams as 5 of the 7 would round to the same number of games won (i.e., 21).

By summing the outcome of each game matchup (1 point per win), the final top 5 rank would be:

1. Chiefs
2. Packers
3. Bills
4. Buccaneers
5. Browns

Chiefs remain on top.  Packers move to 2 (from 3).  Bills move back to 3 (from 2).  Buccaneers stay at 4.  Browns move up to 5 (from 12).  Titans move to 8 (from 5).  

For the top three teams, the expected value and total win ranks are largely in agreement. However, the Packers are moving up from fighting with the Bills for second, to fighting with the Chiefs for first.  Although the Packers have a slight expected value advantage over the Chiefs, the model still predicts that the Chiefs would beat the Packers in a matchup.  So we have Chiefs and Packers for first/second, and Bills for third.

2020 NFL Game Predictions: Division, Playoffs, Best Team

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2020 Predictions:

• Playoffs - Wild Card: 5-1 (RF); 3-3 (LR)
• Week 17: 13-3 (RF); 13-3 (LR)
• Week 16: 9-7 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
• Week 15: 11-5 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
• Week 14: Playoffs
• Week 14: 7-9 (RF); 9-7 (LR)
• Week 13: 10-5 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
• Week 12: 13-3 (RF); 12-4 (LR)
• Week 11: 6-8 (RF); 4-10 (LR)
• Week 10: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
• Week 9: 10-4 (RF); 12-2 (LR)
• Week 8: 9-5 (RF); 9-5 (LR)
• Week 7: 9-5 (RF); 10-4 (LR)
• Week 6: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
• Week 5: 9-5 (RF); 11-3 (LR)
• Week 4: 11-4 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
• Week 3: 0-0 (RF); 7-8-1 (LR)
• Week 2: 0-0 (RF); 8-8 (LR)
• Week 1: Kickoff

_______________________________________________________

Recap:

4-0 (LR) with 2.345 expected; 2-2 (RF) with 2.319 expected.  I personally went 3-1, as did 538.  LR got lucky and RF got unlucky.

• Bills beat the Ravens as predicted.  All models except RF correct.
• Packers solidly beat the Rams.  All models correct.
• Chiefs beat the Browns, holding on to the lead after losing their starting QB to a concussion.  All models correct.  Whether the QB will play in the next game will be a huge factor in the Chiefs' likelihood of winning that game.
• Buccaneers upset the Saints as LR is correct; everyone else is incorrect.

Next week is the Conference Championships!

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Division:

The Wild Card week is done and we are on to the Divisional round.  The winners of the Wild Card games play each other and the #1 seeds that had a first round bye.  There are 4 games this week.  

The models disagree on 2 of the 4 games.  538 is in agreement between QB and traditional models.  It sides with LR on 1 game and RF on another.  All models are in agreement on 2 games.  So not a straightforward week for predictions.  I'd expect to only get 2 games right.

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

• Bills vs. Ravens
• LR picks Bills but RF picks Ravens.  538 (QB and traditional) chooses the Bills.  Bills are 14-3 and Ravens are 12-5.  Bills play at home.  I think this is a pretty good matchup with pretty evenly matched teams, so it could go either way.  I am going to side with the Bills.
• Packers vs. Rams
• All models agree: Packers will win.  I am inclined to agree.
• Saints vs. Buccaneers
• LR picks Buccaneers but RF picks Saints.  538 (QB and traditional) picks Saints.  Saints play at home and are 13-4.  Buccaneers are 12-5.  Both teams are passing teams and the stats are very similar so it's a close call.  Buccaneers lost both previous matchups this season.  Picking the Saints.
• Chiefs vs. Browns
• All models agree: Chiefs will win.  Picking the Chiefs.

Good luck!

Here are the predictions for the Divisional Round:

Playoffs:

How will the playoffs playout using the final seeding and game results?  Using the LR model for one-time head-to-head matchup predictions:

• Wildcard:
• AFC
• Chiefs (1)-bye
• Bills (2) vs. Colts (7) -> Bills (2)
• Steelers (3) vs. Browns (6) -> Browns (6)
• Titans (4) vs. Ravens (5) -> Ravens (5)
• NFC
• Packers (1)- bye
• Saints (2) vs. Bears (7) -> Saints (2)
• Seahawks (3) vs. Rams (6) -> Rams (6)
• Washington (4) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5)
• Division:
• AFC
• Chiefs (1) vs. Browns (6) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.56)
• Bills (2) vs. Ravens (5) ->  Bills (2) - (0.618)
• NFC
• Packers (1) vs. Rams (6) -> Packers (1) - (0.661)
• Saints (2) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5) - (0.506)
• Conference:
• AFC: Chiefs (1) vs. Bills (2) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.512)
• NFC: Packers (1) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Packers (1) - (0.526)
• Super Bowl:
• Chiefs (1) vs. Packers (1) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.525)

The LR model still predicts that the Chiefs will go all the way and win the Super Bowl against the Packers.

If we run this as a Monte Carlo simulation with the seeding fixed, played games fixed, and 20,000 runs, we get the following result:

The Chiefs still win most often at 17.8% (down from 20%), followed by the Packers at 17.6% (up from 16%), so they are virtually tied.  The Bills, having won in the first round, are now at 16.8% (up from 9%).  All of the teams that played and won in the first round have a boost in likelihood as they now distribute among themselves the collective probabilities once assigned to their Wild Card opponents.  Also, the advantage once given to the Chiefs and Packers due to their having first round byes no longer applies, meaning that the probabilities given now better reflect only the strength of each team as measured by the model (as well as matchup advantages/disadvantages due to seeding).

Best Team:

What is the "best" team this week?  If each team were to play every other team once, which team would have the most wins?  By summing up the probabilities of each game matchup, the 32 game season would have a final top 5 rank of:

1. Chiefs
2. Packers
3. Bills
4. Titans
5. Saints

Chiefs remain on top. Packers move from 5 to 2.  Bills move from 2 to 3.  Steelers get bumped from 3 to 8.  Seahawks get bumped from 4 to 7.  Titans move up to 4 from 13.  Saints move up from 7 to 5.  Ravens move from 9 to 6.  Buccaneers move from 8 to 9, Browns from 6 to 12, and Rams from 14 to 13.  

By summing the outcome of each game matchup (1 point per win), the final top 5 rank would be:

1. Chiefs
2. Bills
3. Packers
4. Buccaneers
5. Titans

Chiefs stay on top.  Bills remain in second. Packers move from 4 to 3.  Buccaneers move from 5 to 4.  Steelers move from 3 to 7.  Titans move from 11 to 5.  Saints move from 9 to 6.  Ravens move from 12 to 9.  Browns move from 7 to 12.  Rams move from 14 to 13.  

For the top three teams, the expected value and total win ranks are largely in agreement.  In short, the Chiefs still remain the "best" team with the Bills and Packers fighting it out for second and third.

2020 NFL Game Predictions: Wild Card, Playoffs, Best Team

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2020 Predictions:

• Week 17: 13-3 (RF); 13-3 (LR)
• Week 16: 9-7 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
• Week 15: 11-5 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
• Week 14: Playoffs
• Week 14: 7-9 (RF); 9-7 (LR)
• Week 13: 10-5 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
• Week 12: 13-3 (RF); 12-4 (LR)
• Week 11: 6-8 (RF); 4-10 (LR)
• Week 10: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
• Week 9: 10-4 (RF); 12-2 (LR)
• Week 8: 9-5 (RF); 9-5 (LR)
• Week 7: 9-5 (RF); 10-4 (LR)
• Week 6: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
• Week 5: 9-5 (RF); 11-3 (LR)
• Week 4: 11-4 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
• Week 3: 0-0 (RF); 7-8-1 (LR)
• Week 2: 0-0 (RF); 8-8 (LR)
• Week 1: Kickoff

________________________________________________________

Recap:

3-3 (LR) with 3.406 expected; 5-1 (RF) with 3.548 expected.  With those probabilities, I had a 52% chance of getting 3 or fewer games correct with the LR model, so not surprising.  I think I got lucky with the RF model.  Personally, I go 4-2.  538 QB is 4-2 and 538 traditional is 3-3.

• Bills beat the Colts.  Colts scored first but Bills took lead late in 1st quarter and never gave it up.  Everybody correct. 
• Rams beat the Seahawks.  Rams scored first, Seahawks tied, but Rams took lead again and never gave it up.  Several interceptions and dropped passes by the Seahawks as the Rams decisively win over the Seahawks.  Everybody incorrect.
• Buccaneers beat Washington.  Buccaneers took and never lost the lead.  Everybody correct.  
• Ravens beat Titans.  Titans took early lead but Ravens tied it by the half.  Ravens took lead in 3rd quarter and never lost it after that.  RF, 538 QB, and myself correct; LR and 538 traditional incorrect.
• Saints beat the Bears as expected.  Saints took and never lost the lead.  Everybody correct.
• Browns beat the Steelers.  Browns took 28-0 lead in first quarter with a missed Steelers snap turned into a Browns touchdown and several interceptions.  Steelers closed in to 11 points by the end of the game but never caught up.  Lots of scoring for a final 48-37 Browns victory in which Steelers QB throws for 501 yards but 4 interceptions.  RF correct; LR, myself, 538 QB, and 538 traditional incorrect.

Playoff predictions are hard.  Better and more evenly matched teams mean that the probabilities are closer together, making any prediction more like a 50-50 guess.  I suppose that is good as it makes for an exciting playoff experience.

On to the divisional round!

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Wild Card:

At last we are in the playoffs with the Wild Card round.  Seeds 2-7 face off while the number 1 seeds have a bye.  There are 6 games this week.  The models disagree on 2 of the 6 games.  538 is split on one of those as well.  Here we go...

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

• Steelers vs. Browns
• LR favors Steelers while RF picks Browns.  538 (QB and traditional) picks Steelers.  The Browns and Steelers just played, and though the Browns won, they won barely, and the Steelers were sitting a lot of their starters.  Steelers play at home.  Steelers are 12-4 and Browns are 11-5.  Picking the Steelers.
• Titans vs. Ravens
• LR narrowly picks Titans while RF narrowly picks Ravens.  538 QB picks Ravens while 538 traditional picks Titans.  So this is a toss up.  Titans play at home and are 11-5.  Ravens are also 11-5.  Titans won the previous matchup this season.  Ravens look like a slightly better team on paper.  Picking the Ravens.

The other predictions look correct, but I have a funny feeling about the Colts upsetting the Bills... Good luck!

Here are the predictions for Wild Card Week:

Playoffs:

The playoff seeds are now fixed as follows:

• AFC
1. Chiefs: West Champ
2. Bills: East Champ
3. Steelers: North Champ
4. Titans: South Champ
5. Ravens: Wild Card #1
6. Browns: Wild Card #2
7. Colts: Wild Card #3
• NFC
1. Packers: North Champ
2. Saints: South Champ
3. Seahawks: West Champ
4. Washington: East Champ
5. Buccaneers: Wild Card #1
6. Rams: Wild Card #2
7. Bears: Wild Card #3

How good were my playoff predictions?  I started predicting playoffs in week 14.  So there are 4 weeks of playoff seed predictions.  These are the summary results:

• Week 14:
• Made Playoffs: AFC - 6/7; NFC - 5/7
• Correct Seed: AFC - 2/7; NFC - 0/7 
• Week 15:
• Made Playoffs: AFC - 6/7; NFC - 6/7
• Correct Seed:  AFC - 2/7; NFC - 3/7
• Week 16:
• Made Playoffs: AFC - 6/7; NFC - 6/7
• Correct Seed: AFC - 2/7; NFC - 4/7
• Week 17:
• Made Playoffs: AFC - 6/7; NFC - 7/7
• Correct Seed: AFC - 5/7; NFC - 7/7

The consistent misses in making the playoffs were the Dolphins in the AFC and the Cardinals in the NFC, but overall this was not too challenging.  The correct seeding is much more difficult.  Seeds #1-4 remained largely the same, but the ordering of #5-7 changed nearly every week.

How will the playoffs playout using the final seeding and game results?  Using the LR model for one-time head-to-head matchup predictions:

• Wildcard:
• AFC
• Chiefs (1)-bye
• Bills (2) vs. Colts (7) -> Bills (2) - (0.528)
• Steelers (3) vs. Browns (6) -> Steelers (3) - (0.521)
• Titans (4) vs. Ravens (5) -> Titans (4) - (0.509)
• NFC
• Packers (1)- bye
• Saints (2) vs. Bears (7) -> Saints (2) - (0.681)
• Seahawks (3) vs. Rams (6) -> Seahawks (3) - (0.631)
• Washington (4) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5) - (0.536)
• Division:
• AFC
• Chiefs (1) vs. Titans (4) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.613)
• Bills (2) vs. Steelers (3) ->  Bills (2) - (0.513)
• NFC
• Packers (1) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Packers (1) - (0.507)
• Saints (2) vs. Seahawks (3) -> Seahawks (3) - (0.53)
• Conference:
• AFC: Chiefs (1) vs. Bills (2) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.539)
• NFC: Packers (1) vs. Seahawks (3) -> Packers (1) - (0.51)
• Super Bowl:
• Chiefs (1) vs. Packers (1) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.559)

The LR model still predicts that the Chiefs will go all the way and win the Super Bowl against the Packers.  In fact, the outcomes are the exact same as the predictions from last week.  There are slight probabilistic changes, but the predicted winner of each game in the playoffs is the same.

If we run this as a Monte Carlo simulation with the seeding fixed and 20,000 runs, we get the following result:

The Chiefs still win most often at 20% of the time (down from 24%), followed by the Packers at 16% (down from 20%) and the Bills at 9% (stay the same).  The downward change in the Chiefs is most likely due to sitting their starters and losing their last game.  We know that this doesn't really reflect how good the team is, but the model doesn't know that.  The previous 24% is probably a better reflection of the Chief's chances of winning the Super Bowl.

Best Team:

What is the "best" team this week?  If each team were to play every other team once, which team would have the most wins?  By summing up the probabilities of each game matchup, the 32 game season would have a final top 5 rank of:

1. Chiefs
2. Bills
3. Steelers
4. Seahawks
5. Packers

Chiefs remain on top. Bills remain in second.  Steelers move from 8 to 3.  Packers move from 3 to 5.  Seahawks move from 5 to 4.   Saints move from 4 to 7.  In all this, it is important to remember that only the Chiefs are ahead of the next team by a full game.  In fact, the difference between the Bills and the Saints is only 1.37 games.  A very slight change in the probabilities can significantly change the ordering of the top teams, as it continues to do so.

By summing the outcome of each game matchup (1 point per win), the final top 5 rank would be:

1. Chiefs
2. Bills
3. Steelers
4. Packers
5. Buccaneers

Chiefs stay on top.  Bills remain in second. Steelers move from 4 to 3.  Packers move from 3 to 4.  Buccaneers jump from 11 to 5.  Seahawks remain at 6.  Dolphins move from 4 to 10.

For the top three teams, the expected value and total win ranks are in agreement.  In short, the Chiefs still remain the "best" team, the Bills remain in second, and the Steelers move up to third.