2020 NFL Game Predictions: Week 15, Playoffs, Best Team

 Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2020 Predictions:

• Week 14: Playoffs
• Week 14: 7-9 (RF); 9-7 (LR)
• Week 13: 10-5 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
• Week 12: 13-3 (RF); 12-4 (LR)
• Week 11: 6-8 (RF); 4-10 (LR)
• Week 10: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
• Week 9: 10-4 (RF); 12-2 (LR)
• Week 8: 9-5 (RF); 9-5 (LR)
• Week 7: 9-5 (RF); 10-4 (LR)
• Week 6: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
• Week 5: 9-5 (RF); 11-3 (LR)
• Week 4: 11-4 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
• Week 3: 7-8-1 (LR)
• Week 2: 8-8 (LR)
• Week 1: Kickoff

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Recap:

10-6 (LR) with 10.759 expected; 11-5 (RF) with 10.516 expected.  So the models performed as expected, and RF did slightly better than LR.  Personally I went 11-5 as I agreed with RF on each prediction.

• Cowboys beat the 49ers.  LR gets this correct; RF, myself, and 538 miss this.  Cowboys either had the lead or were tied the entire game.
• Falcons lose to Buccaneers after giving up a 17 point lead.  LR misses this, RF, myself, and 538 get this correct.  It could have easily gone the other way.
• Washington loses to the Seahawks.  Seahawks had the lead the whole game, but Washington came on strong in the 4th quarter and nearly came back to win.  Again, it could have easily gone the other way.   LR misses this, RF, myself, and 538 get this correct. 
• Chargers beat the Raiders in a back and forth game decided in OT.  Everybody misses.
• Jets beat the Rams for the biggest upset of the week, thereby ending their winless season so far.  Rams started playing the second half but the Jets' lead was too much to overcome.  Everybody misses.
• Bears beat the Vikings.  Bears had the lead or were tied for the entire game.  Everybody misses.
• Bengals beat the Steelers in another huge upset.  Bengals always had the lead.  Steelers have now lost 3 in a row after being undefeated.  Everybody misses.

On to week 16!

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Week 15:

Three weeks left before the playoffs!  No changes in the models except to retrain them with the latest data. However, I did update the code to make playoff and matchup predictions, and I also added a little code to handle some bad data that was resulting in a not-so-insignificant issue in the features being created.  Playoff and matchup predictions are below the Week 15 predictions.

The models disagree with each other on three games this week.  RF is in complete agreement with 538 QB and traditional, which are also the same this week.  So much more consistency with only LR disagreeing in three games.  LR has outperformed RF so far.  Will it have some correct surprises this week?

16 games this week as no one has a bye.

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

• Cowboys vs. 49ers
• LR chooses Cowboys and RF chooses 49ers.  538 (QB and traditional) chooses 49ers. Cowboys are 4-9 and play at home.  49ers are 5-8.  Picking the 49ers.
• Falcons vs. Buccaneers
• LR chooses Falcons and RF chooses Buccaneers.  538 (QB and traditional) chooses Buccaneers.  Falcons are 4-9 and play at home.  Buccaneers are 8-5.  Picking the Buccaneers.
• Washington vs. Seahawks
• LR chooses Washington but RF chooses Seahawks.  538 (QB and traditional) chooses Seahawks.  Washington is 6-7 and plays at home.  Seahawks are 9-4.  Picking the Seahawks.

Not sure what my LR model is thinking, but I am siding with RF and 538 on each one.  Good luck!

Here are the predictions for Week 15:

Playoffs:

Here are the latest predictions using the LR model for who will get to the playoffs.  No changes in the AFC.  In the NFC, Packers take the place of the Saints as #1 seed while the Saints go to the #2 seed.  Washington takes the place of the Giants as the #4 seed and so the Giants are out of the playoffs.  Cardinals replace the Vikings as the Wild Card #3, so the Vikings are out.  NFC West currently has 3 of its 4 teams in the playoffs.

• AFC
1. Chiefs: West Champ
2. Steelers: North Champ
3. Bills: East Champ
4. Titans: South Champ
5. Browns: Wild Card #1
6. Colts: Wild Card #2
7. Dolphins: Wild Card #3
• NFC
1. Packers: North Champ
2. Saints: South Champ
3. Rams: West Champ
4. Washington: East Champ
5. Seahawks: Wild Card #1
6. Buccaneers: Wild Card #2
7. Cardinals: Wild Card #3

If the foregoing is true, how will the playoffs playout?  Using the LR model for one-time head-to-head matchup predictions:

• Wildcard:
• AFC
• Chiefs (1)-bye
• Steelers (2) vs. Dolphins (7) -> Dolphins (7) - (0.518)
• Bills (3) vs. Colts (6) ->Colts (6) - (0.503)
• Titans (4) vs. Browns (5) -> Titans (4) - (0.551)
• NFC
• Packers (1)- bye
• Saints (2) vs. Cardinals (7) -> Saints (2) - (0.643)
• Rams (3) vs. Buccaneers (6) -> Rams (3) - (0.509)
• Washington (4) vs. Seahawks (5)-> Washington (4) - (0.514)
• Division:
• AFC
• Chiefs (1) vs. Dolphins (7)-> Chiefs (1) - (0.602)
• Titans (4) vs. Colts (6) -> Titans (4) - (0.55)
• NFC
• Packers (1) vs. Washington (4) -> Packers (1) - (0.524)
• Saints (2) vs. Rams (3) -> Saints (2) - (0.657)
• Conference:
• AFC: Chiefs (1) vs. Titans (4) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.613)
• NFC: Packers (1) vs. Saints (2) -> Saints (2) - (0.503)
• Super Bowl:
• Chiefs (1) vs. Saints (2) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.592)

The LR model predicts that the Chiefs will go all the way and win the Super Bowl.  Definitely some surprises in here along the way, but the final result is not surprising.

If we run this as a Monte Carlo simulation with the seeding fixed and 10,000 runs, we get the following result:

The Chiefs win most often, but its only about a quarter of the time.  Though sometimes small, every team has a chance.

Best Team:

What is the "best" team?  If each team were to play every other team once, which team would have the most wins?

By summing up the probabilities of each game matchup, the 32 game season would have a final top 5 rank of:

1. Chiefs
2. Saints
3. Packers
4. Titans
5. Seahawks

By summing the outcome of each game matchup (1 point per win), the final top 5 rank would be:

1. Chiefs
2. Saints
3. Packers
4. Titans
5. Washington

So the Chiefs are the top pick in both ranks and would be considered to be the "best" team.  It is surprising to me that Washington is ranked so highly by my model and that the Steelers are ranked so low.  But generally speaking, this ranking seems to be more correct than not.  Here are the full results.