Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2020 Predictions:
- Playoffs - Division: 2-2 (RF); 4-0 (LR)
- Playoffs - Wild Card: 5-1 (RF); 3-3 (LR)
- Week 17: 13-3 (RF); 13-3 (LR)
- Week 16: 9-7 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
- Week 15: 11-5 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
- Week 14: Playoffs
- Week 14: 7-9 (RF); 9-7 (LR)
- Week 13: 10-5 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
- Week 12: 13-3 (RF); 12-4 (LR)
- Week 11: 6-8 (RF); 4-10 (LR)
- Week 10: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
- Week 9: 10-4 (RF); 12-2 (LR)
- Week 8: 9-5 (RF); 9-5 (LR)
- Week 7: 9-5 (RF); 10-4 (LR)
- Week 6: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
- Week 5: 9-5 (RF); 11-3 (LR)
- Week 4: 11-4 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
- Week 3: 0-0 (RF); 7-8-1 (LR)
- Week 2: 0-0 (RF); 8-8 (LR)
- Week 1: Kickoff
_______________________________________________________
Recap:
1-1 (LR) with 1.05 expected; 0-2 (RF) with 1.078 expected. Buccaneers upset the Packers but Chiefs beat the Bills as expected. Tom Brady gets to go to the Super Bowl again. I guess the lesson now is not so much "don't bet against the Patriots" but "don't bet against Tom Brady". Personally disappointed that the Packers lost but glad that the Chiefs made it through.
- Packers vs. Buccaneers
- Buccaneers scored first, Packers tied, but Buccaneers took the lead again and never let go. Everyone misses.
- Chiefs vs. Bills
- Bills were up 9-0, but Chiefs got 3 consecutive touchdowns and never lost the lead. LR, myself, 538 correct; RF incorrect.
On to the Super Bowl!
_______________________________________________________
Conference Championships:
Four teams left as we move to the conference championships: Chiefs vs. Bills, Packers vs. Buccaneers. Two games this week. The models disagree on 1 of the 2 games. 538 is in agreement between QB and traditional models. It sides with LR on both games.
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- Chiefs vs. Bills
- LR picks the Chiefs and RF barely picks the Bills. 538 picks the Chiefs. A major factor in this is whether or not the Chiefs' top QB will be starting after sustaining a concussion. The models currently assume he will be playing. I pick the Chiefs if their top QB does play. If not, I'm not sure....
- Packers vs. Buccaneers
- All models pick the Packers. I agree: Packers will win.
Good luck!
Here are the predictions for the Conference Championships:
Playoffs:
How will the playoffs playout using the final seeding and game results? Using the LR model for one-time head-to-head matchup predictions:
- Wildcard:
- AFC
- Chiefs (1)-bye
- Bills (2) vs. Colts (7) -> Bills (2)
- Steelers (3) vs. Browns (6) -> Browns (6)
- Titans (4) vs. Ravens (5) -> Ravens (5)
- NFC
- Packers (1)- bye
- Saints (2) vs. Bears (7) -> Saints (2)
- Seahawks (3) vs. Rams (6) -> Rams (6)
- Washington (4) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5)
- Division:
- AFC
- Chiefs (1) vs. Browns (6) -> Chiefs (1)
- Bills (2) vs. Ravens (5) -> Bills (2)
- NFC
- Packers (1) vs. Rams (6) -> Packers (1)
- Saints (2) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5)
- Conference:
- AFC: Chiefs (1) vs. Bills (2) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.522)
- NFC: Packers (1) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Packers (1) - (0.528)
- Super Bowl:
- Chiefs (1) vs. Packers (1) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.510)
The LR model still predicts that the Chiefs will go all the way and win the Super Bowl against the Packers. No changes in game outcomes in Conference Championships or Super Bowl.
If we run this as a Monte Carlo simulation with the seeding fixed, played games fixed, and 50,000 runs, we get the following result:
Chiefs are still on top but are practically tied with the Packers like last week. Bills stay at third and Buccaneers are fourth still, but are a much closer fourth than last week after beating the Saints.
Best Team:
What is the "best" team this week? If each team were to play every other team once, which team would have the most wins? By summing up the probabilities of each game matchup, the 32 game season would have a final top 5 rank of:
- Packers
- Chiefs
- Bills
- Seahawks
- Colts
Packers take over the top position (from 2) as Chiefs slide to 2 from 1. Bills stay at 3. Seahawks surprisingly jump to 4 (from 7), and Colts move to 5 (from 10). Buccaneers move from 9 to 6, Saints move from 5 to 7, and Titans move from 4 to 8. I should note that the difference between the Seahawks at 4 and the Steelers at 10 is less than a single game. While slight changes in the probabilities are dramatically changing the ordering, there are very few if any major differences in the quality of these teams as 5 of the 7 would round to the same number of games won (i.e., 21).
By summing the outcome of each game matchup (1 point per win), the final top 5 rank would be:
- Chiefs
- Packers
- Bills
- Buccaneers
- Browns
Chiefs remain on top. Packers move to 2 (from 3). Bills move back to 3 (from 2). Buccaneers stay at 4. Browns move up to 5 (from 12). Titans move to 8 (from 5).
For the top three teams, the expected value and total win ranks are largely in agreement. However, the Packers are moving up from fighting with the Bills for second, to fighting with the Chiefs for first. Although the Packers have a slight expected value advantage over the Chiefs, the model still predicts that the Chiefs would beat the Packers in a matchup. So we have Chiefs and Packers for first/second, and Bills for third.
No comments:
Post a Comment