Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2020 Predictions:
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Recap:
12-2 (LR) with 9.084 expected. 10-4 (RF) with 7.972 expected. The models did much better than expected this week. Definitely got lucky.
- Bills beat the Seahawks (correct for LR but incorrect for RF).
- Chargers lose to Raiders (incorrect for LR but correct for RF).
- Falcons beat the Broncos (correct for LR but incorrect for RF).
- Titans beat the Bears (correct for LR but incorrect for RF).
- Dolphins beat Cardinals (correct for both).
- Saints beat Buccaneers (correct for both).
- Washington loses to Giants (incorrect for both).
538 misses 3 this week. I personally missed 3 (counting indecision as 0.5). The surprise this week is that there weren't any real surprises, as the clear majority of games came out as expected and losses were from relatively evenly matched teams. A couple games looked like they were going to be surprises/upsets as the favorites were behind, but they virtually all caught up in the end to win.
The linear regression model continues to outperform the random forest.
On to next week!
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Week 9:
A busy and exciting week with the election and other priorities. No changes in the models except to retrain them with the latest data. The models disagree on four games this week, so it should be a real test of which model predicts better as they have been mostly in agreement to this point. Also, lots of disagreement with 538, so another opportunity for distinguishing my models from theirs (for good or ill). 14 games this week. Bengals, Browns, Eagles, and Rams have a bye.
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- Bills vs. Seahawks
- The LR model predicts a Bills victory while RF predicts Seahawks. 538 chooses Seahawks. Seahawks are 6-1 and Bills are 6-2. Seahawks have had a pretty challenging schedule, but so have the Bills. I can see why the models disagree. No clear rational choice to me, but as a fan, personally choosing to support the Seahawks. Go hawks!
- Chargers vs. Raiders
- LR chooses Chargers while RF chooses Raiders. 538 chooses Raiders. Chargers are 2-5 and Raiders are 4-3. The teams played are fairly similar, and those in common the Raiders have won more of. I'd go with the Raiders.
- Falcons vs. Broncos
- LR chooses Falcons while RF chooses Broncos. 538 chooses Falcons. Falcons are 2-6 and Broncos are 3-4. Falcons have played and lost to a lot of good teams, but so have Broncos. I really don't know.
- Titans vs. Bears
- LR chooses Titans while RF chooses Bears. 538 chooses Titans. Titans are 5-2 while Bears are 5-3. Both teams have kept games pretty close and have played roughly the same kind of teams. It's another that I don't really have any strong feeling for.
- Dolphins vs. Cardinals
- Both models choose Dolphins but 538 chooses Cardinals. Dolphins are 4-3 and Cardinals are 5-2. Cardinals are coming off a bye week, but Dolphins have played better teams. I think I will stay with Dolphins.
- Saints vs. Buccaneers
- Both models choose Saints but 538 chooses Buccaneers. Buccaneers are 6-2 and Saints are 5-2. Saints beat Buccaneers in the first week but haven't done well against mediocre teams since. Buccaneers have a better record against slightly better teams, and it looks like they have done better against them as well from a points perspective. I am inclined to go with Buccaneers.
Six of the 14 games are odd or bold this week, so lots of room for upsets and missed predictions. Good matchups this week. Good luck!
Here are the predictions for Week 9:
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