Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2020 Predictions:
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Recap:
10-4 (LR) and 9-5 (RF). The difference between the two was the Bears-Rams game, which LR correctly predicted a Rams victory while RF incorrectly favored the Bears. 49ers win and Cowboys lose. Seahawks lose to Cardinals in OT, ending their undefeated season so far. Lions barely beat the Falcons as the Falcons give up the game in the final minutes and seconds. Steelers beat Titans against my model predictions. Steelers are the only team still undefeated and Jets are the only team that has not yet won a game. NFC West is all above .500 while NFC East is all below .500.
LR had an expected value of 9.723 wins and RF an had expected value of 8.513, so both models performed as expected. Pretty good week, although disappointed by Seahawks loss.
On to week 8!
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Week 7:
No updates this week. I may have been kidding myself thinking I could do weekly predictions and make updates and improvements to the models while still doing everything else in my life. More likely any significant improvements in the data storage, processing, pipeline, modeling, and predictions will have to come in the off season. But I'll keep trying.
The models agree except in one instance. 14 games this week. Ravens, Colts, Dolphins, and Vikings have a bye.
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- 49ers vs. Patriots
- Both models choose 49ers. But 49ers play away and they have been somewhat inconsistent this season. Patriots are 2-3 against hard teams and 49ers are 3-3 against average teams. I'm inclined to go with Patriots personally. 538 chooses Patriots.
- Cowboys vs. Washington
- Both models choose Cowboys but 538 chooses Washington. It's an away game for Cowboys. Cowboys are 2-4 and Washington is 1-5. Cowboys have kept the game closer against better teams. But they did that with Dak Prescott, who is out for the season. My source data does not have that data updated, so its not surprising that my models give an overwhelming victory to the Cowboys because they are blind to this fact. That is a limitation of data driven models: they need good data to be accurate. Not sure which way I personally go on this one but the models are overestimating the Cowboys at the very least.
- Bears vs. Rams
- LR votes for Rams while RF votes for Bears. Rams play at home. Rams are 4-2 and Bears are 5-1. Bears have had close games against IMHO relatively average teams. Rams have had close games against better than average teams. So I don't know, but my gut tells me Rams if I have to choose. 538 chooses Rams.
Good luck!
Here are the predictions for Week 7:
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