2020 NFL Game Predictions: Week 16, Playoffs, Best Team

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2020 Predictions:

• Week 15: 11-5 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
• Week 14: Playoffs
• Week 14: 7-9 (RF); 9-7 (LR)
• Week 13: 10-5 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
• Week 12: 13-3 (RF); 12-4 (LR)
• Week 11: 6-8 (RF); 4-10 (LR)
• Week 10: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
• Week 9: 10-4 (RF); 12-2 (LR)
• Week 8: 9-5 (RF); 9-5 (LR)
• Week 7: 9-5 (RF); 10-4 (LR)
• Week 6: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
• Week 5: 9-5 (RF); 11-3 (LR)
• Week 4: 11-4 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
• Week 3: 0-0 (RF); 7-8-1 (LR)
• Week 2: 0-0 (RF); 8-8 (LR)
• Week 1: Kickoff

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Recap:

 10-6 (LR) with 10.519 expected, and 9-7 (RF) with 9.937 expected.  So the models performed as expected.  I personally go 12-4.  538 QB goes 11-5, 538 traditional goes 12-4.

• Seahawks beat the Rams.  LR, myself, and 538 get this correct; RF misses this.  Rams got the first score, but Seahawks were able to tie things up by the half and then took the lead without losing it again in the second half.
• Chargers beat the Broncos.  538 and myself correct; LR and RF incorrect.  Chargers took the lead early, but Broncos came back to tie it up near the end.  Chargers finished the game with a field goal to win.
• Steelers win against Colts.  538 traditional and myself correct; 538 QB, LR, RF incorrect.  Steelers were down 21-7 at the half.  Steelers got 3 touchdowns in second half to put them over the top 28-24.  
• 49ers beat Cardinals.  Everyone misses.  Cardinals got the first score, but 49ers quickly took the lead and never let go.
• Jets upset the Browns by winning their second game.  Everyone misses. Browns scored first but Jets took the lead and then never gave it up.
• Bengals beat the Texans.  Everyone misses.  Bengals took the lead first but Texans kept tying it up.  Texans even took the lead halfway through the 4th quarter, but Bengals came back with a TD to take the lead and a field goal to cap it off.
• Panthers beat Washington.  Everyone misses.  Panthers got up 20-3 in the first half, and though they didn't score anymore, they held on to win 20-13.  

On to the last week!

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Week 16:

Merry Christmas! Two weeks left before the playoffs!  No changes in the models except to retrain them with the latest data.  However, another code update was required to handle some new bad data that was giving incorrect results for starter information.

The models disagree with each other on one game, with 538 on another, and 538 models split on a third.  So pretty consistent this week.

16 games this week as no one has a bye.

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

• Seahawks vs. Rams
• LR predicts a Seahawks victory while RF predicts a Rams victory.  538 (QB and traditional) pick Seahawks.  Seahawks play at home and are 10-4, while Rams are 9-5.  Rams won the last matchup in LA.  Rams lost to Jets last week.  Picking the Seahawks.
• Broncos vs. Chargers
• LR and RF barely pick Broncos, but 538 (QB and traditional) barely picks Chargers.  Chargers play at home.  Both teams are 5-9.  Broncos won the last matchup by 1 point. Looking at the statistics, Chargers seem to be the better team on paper.  Picking the Chargers.
• Colts vs. Steelers
• LR and RF pick Colts.  538 QB adjusted picks Colts as well while 538 traditional picks Steelers.  Steelers play at home and are 11-3.  Colts are 10-4.  Steelers have lost 3 in a row, including last week to the Bengals.  Colts have won the last 3 games.  Looking at the statistics, Colts appear to be the better team, but they also haven't played as strong a schedule as the Steelers.  Hmmm. I could go either way, but I feel like I should pick the Steelers.  I don't think they will lose four in a row...

Good luck!

Here are the predictions for Week 16:

Playoffs:

Here are the latest predictions using the LR model for who will get to the playoffs. 

Changes in AFC include Steelers moving to seed 4 (lost to Bills, predicted loss to Colts), and Bills take second seed.  Colts jump to third seed with a predicted win over Steelers.  Browns remain at seed 5 with head to head win over Titans.  Titans move down to seed 6.  Dolphins remain seed 7 with conference win % advantage over Ravens.

In the NFC, Packers remain on top.  The Saints stay at the second seed with conference win % advantage over Seahawks.  Seahawks jump to third seed.  Washington remains fourth seed.  Rams go to 5th seed with head to head record over Buccaneers.  Buccaneers are 6th seed, and Cardinals remain as 7th seed.

• AFC
1. Chiefs: West Champ
2. Bills: East Champ, head to head win over Steelers
3. Colts: South Champ, predicted win over Steelers
4. Steelers: North Champ
5. Browns: Wild Card #1, head to head over Titans
6. Titans: Wild Card #2
7. Dolphins: Wild Card #3
• NFC
1. Packers: North Champ
2. Saints: South Champ, conference win% over Seahawks
3. Seahawks: West Champ
4. Washington: East Champ
5. Rams: Wild Card #1, head to head record over Buccaneers
6. Buccaneers: Wild Card #2
7. Cardinals: Wild Card #3

If the foregoing is true (and I did the tiebreaking correctly), how will the playoffs playout?  Using the LR model for one-time head-to-head matchup predictions:

• Wildcard:
• AFC
• Chiefs (1)-bye
• Bills (2) vs. Dolphins (7) -> Bills (2) - (0.516)
• Colts (3) vs. Titans (6) ->Colts (3) - (0.512)
• Steelers (4) vs. Browns (5) -> Browns (5) - (0.526)
• NFC
• Packers (1)- bye
• Saints (2) vs. Cardinals (7) -> Saints (2) - (0.573)
• Seahawks (3) vs. Buccaneers (6) -> Seahawks (3) - (0.633)
• Washington (4) vs. Rams (5)-> Washington (4) - (0.510)
• Division:
• AFC
• Chiefs (1) vs. Browns (5)-> Chiefs (1) - (0.632)
• Bills (2) vs. Colts (3) ->  Colts (3) - (0.513)
• NFC
• Packers (1) vs. Washington (4) -> Packers (1) - (0.589)
• Saints (2) vs. Seahawks (3) -> Seahawks (3) - (0.589)
• Conference:
• AFC: Chiefs (1) vs. Colts (3) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.601)
• NFC: Packers (1) vs. Seahawks (3) -> Packers (1) - (0.513)
• Super Bowl:
• Chiefs (1) vs. Packers (1) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.590)

The LR model still predicts that the Chiefs will go all the way and win the Super Bowl, now against the Packers.

If we run this as a Monte Carlo simulation with the seeding fixed and 20,000 runs, we get the following result:

The Chiefs still win most often at 25% of the time, followed by Packers (18%) and Seahawks (10%).

Best Team:

What is the "best" team?  If each team were to play every other team once, which team would have the most wins?

By summing up the probabilities of each game matchup, the 32 game season would have a final top 5 rank of:

1. Chiefs
2. Packers
3. Seahawks
4. Titans
5. Colts

Chiefs remain on top.  Packers move up to 2 from 3, Seahawks move from 5 to 3, Saints move down from 2 to 7, Titans stay at 4, and Colts move to 5.

By summing the outcome of each game matchup (1 point per win), the final top 5 rank would be:

1. Chiefs
2. Packers
3. Seahawks
4. Colts
5. Titans

Chiefs stay on top.  Packers move from 3 to 2.  Saints move from 2 to 8.  Seahawks move up to 3.  Colts move to 4 and Titans move to 5 from 4.  Washington moves to 12.  

In short, Chiefs still remain the "best" team, with Packers taking second and Seahawks taking third.