Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
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Recap:
9-5 this week using RF model. Only 14 games played this week as Broncos-Patriots game was pushed back to week 6 and both Packers and Lions had a bye. Expected value of RF performance was 8.532 correct predictions given the probabilities assigned, so the model performed as expected this week.
Logistic regression model was 11-3, higher than its expected value of 9.016, as the Bears beat the Buccaneers and the Panthers beat the Falcons.
Browns beat the Colts. 49ers lose to Dolphins in major upset and Chiefs lose to Raiders.
Overall, happy with the model performance this week as the misses were understandable, and otherwise, the models performed as expected.
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Week 5:
No changes to the models this week. What is interesting is that the logistic regression model and the random forest model are giving slightly different results, so it will be interesting to see which one does better. For the reasons given below, I am inclined to favor the random forest model predictions and will use those to assess this week's results.
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- Bears vs. Buccaneers
- Logistic model picks Bears to win barely, while RF chooses Buccaneers. Both are 3-1 and Bears play at home. One could argue that the Buccaneers have played slightly better teams. They also have Tom Brady, so I am personally inclined to go with them. 538 agrees with a Bucs win.
- Colts vs. Browns
- Both models pick the Colts. Browns play at home, and after an exciting and energizing game last week, they are going to be pumped up for this next game. Both are 3-1. Both have played about the same level of teams in my estimation. I'm kind of leaning towards the Browns, but maybe that is because I want them to be good after so long of being bad. 538 has a 50-50 split that picks the Browns.
- Falcons vs. Panthers
- The RF picks the Falcons while the logistic regression model picks the Panthers. Falcons play at home. Panthers are 2-2 and Falcons are 0-4. Falcons have had a hard schedule so far, harder than the Panthers in my opinion, but have put up good numbers. I could go either way personally. 538 picks the Falcons.
Good luck in week 5!
Here are the predictions for Week 5:
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