Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2020 Predictions:
- Week 13: 10-5 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
- Week 12: 13-3 (RF); 12-4 (LR)
- Week 11: 6-8 (RF); 4-10 (LR)
- Week 10: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
- Week 9: 10-4 (RF); 12-2 (LR)
- Week 8: 9-5 (RF); 9-5 (LR)
- Week 7: 9-5 (RF); 10-4 (LR)
- Week 6: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
- Week 5: 9-5 (RF); 11-3 (LR)
- Week 4: 11-4 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
- Week 3: 7-8-1 (LR)
- Week 2: 8-8 (LR)
- Week 1: Kickoff
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Week 14 Playoff Predictions:
I have managed to resurrect my code and Excel files for predicting who will get to the playoffs. I am still working on the code for what happens after that, that is, who will win in the playoffs and ultimately win the Super Bowl.
Using my linear regression model to predict the outcome for the games remaining (weeks 14-17) , adding those results to the current results, and implementing (I hope correctly) the tie breaking procedures and other rules for picking the playoff seeds, we have the below playoff spot predictions. Note that there are 7 spots this year per conference. Seeds 2-7 in each conference play 3 games in the Wild Card round while seed 1 has a bye. The 3 winners along with seed 1 play two games in the divisional round. The two winners play each other in the conference round. The winners from each conference play each other in the Super Bowl.
Here are the predictions for who will get into the playoffs:
- AFC
- Chiefs: West Champ
- Steelers: North Champ
- Bills: East Champ
- Titans: South Champ
- Browns: Wild Card #1
- Colts: Wild Card #2
- Dolphins: Wild Card #3
- NFC
- Saints: South Champ
- Packers: North Champ
- Rams: West Champ
- Giants: East Champ
- Seahawks: Wild Card #1
- Buccaneers: Wild Card #2
- Vikings: Wild Card #3
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