Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2020 Predictions:
- Playoffs - Wild Card: 5-1 (RF); 3-3 (LR)
- Week 17: 13-3 (RF); 13-3 (LR)
- Week 16: 9-7 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
- Week 15: 11-5 (RF); 10-6 (LR)
- Week 14: Playoffs
- Week 14: 7-9 (RF); 9-7 (LR)
- Week 13: 10-5 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
- Week 12: 13-3 (RF); 12-4 (LR)
- Week 11: 6-8 (RF); 4-10 (LR)
- Week 10: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
- Week 9: 10-4 (RF); 12-2 (LR)
- Week 8: 9-5 (RF); 9-5 (LR)
- Week 7: 9-5 (RF); 10-4 (LR)
- Week 6: 8-6 (RF); 8-6 (LR)
- Week 5: 9-5 (RF); 11-3 (LR)
- Week 4: 11-4 (RF); 11-4 (LR)
- Week 3: 0-0 (RF); 7-8-1 (LR)
- Week 2: 0-0 (RF); 8-8 (LR)
- Week 1: Kickoff
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Recap:
4-0 (LR) with 2.345 expected; 2-2 (RF) with 2.319 expected. I personally went 3-1, as did 538. LR got lucky and RF got unlucky.
- Bills beat the Ravens as predicted. All models except RF correct.
- Packers solidly beat the Rams. All models correct.
- Chiefs beat the Browns, holding on to the lead after losing their starting QB to a concussion. All models correct. Whether the QB will play in the next game will be a huge factor in the Chiefs' likelihood of winning that game.
- Buccaneers upset the Saints as LR is correct; everyone else is incorrect.
Next week is the Conference Championships!
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Division:
The Wild Card week is done and we are on to the Divisional round. The winners of the Wild Card games play each other and the #1 seeds that had a first round bye. There are 4 games this week.
The models disagree on 2 of the 4 games. 538 is in agreement between QB and traditional models. It sides with LR on 1 game and RF on another. All models are in agreement on 2 games. So not a straightforward week for predictions. I'd expect to only get 2 games right.
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- Bills vs. Ravens
- LR picks Bills but RF picks Ravens. 538 (QB and traditional) chooses the Bills. Bills are 14-3 and Ravens are 12-5. Bills play at home. I think this is a pretty good matchup with pretty evenly matched teams, so it could go either way. I am going to side with the Bills.
- Packers vs. Rams
- All models agree: Packers will win. I am inclined to agree.
- Saints vs. Buccaneers
- LR picks Buccaneers but RF picks Saints. 538 (QB and traditional) picks Saints. Saints play at home and are 13-4. Buccaneers are 12-5. Both teams are passing teams and the stats are very similar so it's a close call. Buccaneers lost both previous matchups this season. Picking the Saints.
- Chiefs vs. Browns
- All models agree: Chiefs will win. Picking the Chiefs.
Good luck!
Here are the predictions for the Divisional Round:
Playoffs:
How will the playoffs playout using the final seeding and game results? Using the LR model for one-time head-to-head matchup predictions:
- Wildcard:
- AFC
- Chiefs (1)-bye
- Bills (2) vs. Colts (7) -> Bills (2)
- Steelers (3) vs. Browns (6) -> Browns (6)
- Titans (4) vs. Ravens (5) -> Ravens (5)
- NFC
- Packers (1)- bye
- Saints (2) vs. Bears (7) -> Saints (2)
- Seahawks (3) vs. Rams (6) -> Rams (6)
- Washington (4) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5)
- Division:
- AFC
- Chiefs (1) vs. Browns (6) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.56)
- Bills (2) vs. Ravens (5) -> Bills (2) - (0.618)
- NFC
- Packers (1) vs. Rams (6) -> Packers (1) - (0.661)
- Saints (2) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Buccaneers (5) - (0.506)
- Conference:
- AFC: Chiefs (1) vs. Bills (2) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.512)
- NFC: Packers (1) vs. Buccaneers (5) -> Packers (1) - (0.526)
- Super Bowl:
- Chiefs (1) vs. Packers (1) -> Chiefs (1) - (0.525)
The LR model still predicts that the Chiefs will go all the way and win the Super Bowl against the Packers.
If we run this as a Monte Carlo simulation with the seeding fixed, played games fixed, and 20,000 runs, we get the following result:
Best Team:
What is the "best" team this week? If each team were to play every other team once, which team would have the most wins? By summing up the probabilities of each game matchup, the 32 game season would have a final top 5 rank of:
- Chiefs
- Packers
- Bills
- Titans
- Saints
Chiefs remain on top. Packers move from 5 to 2. Bills move from 2 to 3. Steelers get bumped from 3 to 8. Seahawks get bumped from 4 to 7. Titans move up to 4 from 13. Saints move up from 7 to 5. Ravens move from 9 to 6. Buccaneers move from 8 to 9, Browns from 6 to 12, and Rams from 14 to 13.
By summing the outcome of each game matchup (1 point per win), the final top 5 rank would be:
- Chiefs
- Bills
- Packers
- Buccaneers
- Titans
Chiefs stay on top. Bills remain in second. Packers move from 4 to 3. Buccaneers move from 5 to 4. Steelers move from 3 to 7. Titans move from 11 to 5. Saints move from 9 to 6. Ravens move from 12 to 9. Browns move from 7 to 12. Rams move from 14 to 13.
For the top three teams, the expected value and total win ranks are largely in agreement. In short, the Chiefs still remain the "best" team with the Bills and Packers fighting it out for second and third.
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