Friday, January 27, 2017

The Interview Games: 10 Tips for Being Successful

Over my relatively short career, I have done many interviews.  Some have been for new jobs while others have been for new clients while working at the same consulting company. While I am sure I still have much to learn about the interview process, here are some insights I have already gathered in my experience in the BI and data analytics job market.

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1. The interview process experience depends greatly on the company culture and role.

In some companies, a culture fit appears to be most important: are you likeable, do you have good "soft" skills.  In consulting, while the broad technical skills are important, the nature of the work requires a lot of personal interaction, self-motivation, discipline, and communication as one works across multiple groups on a regular basis and is only on a project for a short time.  This is what matters most to the consulting company in recruiting employees.  In a more technical full time employment role, the "soft" skills are also important, but the technical skills appear to be much more valued as one works mainly with the same group of individuals in a deeply technical role for a long period of time.

Consequently, the interview style tends to match the nature of the work.  For a consulting position, one looks mainly for personal soft skills.  However, as a consultant interviewing for a technical client position, make sure that you have your technical skills down solid, as these may be the most important skills you have to the client.  You have to have both the soft and hard skills, but mostly it will be your technical skills that are on trial in an interview.  For a technical FTE, one looks mainly for technical skills, but the soft skills are important too, so don't minimize these.

In short, know what kind of company culture and role you are interviewing for, and present yourself accordingly.

2. In person meetings are important for getting an interview.

When possible, it is important to meet with a hiring manager in person before any interview.  This brings to life an otherwise unknown person defined by a piece of paper.  One can better empathize and relate with someone face to face.  And it distinguishes you from everyone else who applied for the position, but never met with the hiring manager.  It is too easy to ignore an email or glaze over a resume.  Don't let that happen to you.  Get a meeting, an "informational", to make that connection.

This is true for both full time positions and for consulting type work.  In consulting, getting in front of a potential client makes all of the difference.  When work becomes available, they will think of you for the position to do that work.

3. A personal connection still matters.

A common respected connection to introduce or recommend you for a position goes a long way in getting that interview, and can even smooth over any difficulties experienced in the interview.  They act as a character and work reference informally, and can root for you and help you prepare.  The fact is, a better candidate may be passed over for another candidate with a personal connection batting for him or her.  Don't ignore this importance, and make the most use of your connections.

In consulting, this is especially true.  Fellow consultants or employees that are known to the client and that can introduce you to the client will help you get the project.  Use the success of your connections to achieve your own success in meeting with clients.

4. Typically, but not always, interviewing is less about assessing ones technical skills and more about assessing one's ability to think and passion for the job.

For technical FTE positions, one may be asked very few technical questions, even though the position is technical.  Why?  Well, most technical questions about coding can be found in a minute through an internet search.  And most technologies can be learned fairly quickly with dedicated study.  Hence, the most important skill for long term success in a role is the ability to think well about a problem and to find an effective solution quickly.  This skill is not so easily learned and is much more valuable nowadays. And if one is not excited about the role, chances are one isn't going to do very good work or be motivated to give one's best.  So conveying passion is necessary.

I say this with the caveat that I have been in interviews where the technical was all that mattered.  My ability or inability to rattle off esoteric code syntax was what determined whether I got the job or not.  This is especially true in consulting.  While your employer may desire you to be a well-rounded individual, a technical client just wants you to deliver using a specific set of skills, and you may be completely judged on how well you can articulate those skills.  Make sure you can.

5. Personality matters, and if you have a personality mismatch with your interviewer, tough luck.  But maybe that is a good thing.

My worst interviews in my experience came as a result of ineffective communication and personality disagreements.  It's hard to interview well when the interviewer is cold, combative, and unclear, but you have to remain warm, excited, professional, and clear.  Perhaps this is even part of the interview, a test to see how well you do under stress and in dealing with a difficult "customer".  Reflecting back now, however, perhaps it is best when those jobs don't work out.  Is it really in my long term interest to work for a team, whether as an FTE or consultant, which has a culture that is negative or in which I just don't fit?  Probably not.

A good job can be characterized by a good project (work/subject matter), good pay (compensation), and good people (coworkers, clients, customers).  Even with good work and good pay, difficult bosses and coworkers can make work miserable.  So don't despair if you and the interviewer don't click.  This may be a blessing in disguise.

6. You have to sell yourself.

Prepare to be a sales person, and the product you are pushing is you.  You can take this in two ways: become everything to everyone you are interviewing with, or put your best foot forward.  I recommend the second route.  If you opt for the first route, you will feel like you are selling your soul in some sense by pretending to be what you are not, and likely, this job will not be a good fit for you anyway.  And people can see through the phoniness that you try to pass off as genuine, so it will likely backfire.  So focus on your strengths, be honest in your weaknesses, and look for jobs or clients that fit what you are excited about and what you can do best.

That being said, you really do need to sell the real you.  You'll probably feel like you are overdoing it, but that's ok.  If you are excited about something, be visibly excited!  Turn gaps in your resume into opportunities for learning.  Explain in detail what you do and what you know.  Be positive and confident.  You need to be likeable.

In short, put the best spin on who you are and what you do in your presentation to the hiring manager or client.  Be true to yourself, but show the best version of yourself that you can.

7. Be prepared for a marathon.

The job search and interview process is grueling.  Be prepared for a long slog and (unless you don't have a current job), wait to begin the process until you can be prepared to put in the effort.  It will feel like working two jobs at the same time.  You need to have the time and energy to do good job searches, prepare for interviews, and conduct those interviews.  If you don't have a good month or two or three to do this in, wait for a better time.  You don't want to hurt your future chances by doing interviews prematurely that do not go well, but which are part of your interview record nevertheless.

As a consultant, one interviews pretty regularly with clients.  But maybe 1 out of 5 of those turns into something.  And with consulting, the stakes are much lower for a bad hire, so the interviews tend to be less intense and grueling.  For an FTE position, maybe 1 in 10 will result in an offer, or perhaps less.  It's a numbers game, and you may have to keep playing for a while before you win in this game of roulette.

8. You can't tell your current boss, until you have an offer.

One can't feel good about the necessary deception (or at least omission) about your job search and interviewing with your current employer.  But what option do you have?  If your job search is known, you may be let go, put on a terrible project, lose a promotion or bonus, etc.  This could especially come back to bite you if you are not successful in finding another job.  So you can't talk about it.  But you still have to go on working as though you will continue to be there long term.  I don't like advocating this duplicity, but I am not sure that there is any other choice here.  In a political working world, one has to be political sometimes.  If you have any better suggestions, I'd love to know them.

Be careful who you trust with knowledge of your job search.  Perhaps you have been blessed with a great manager who cares more about your happiness and long term success than whether you remain a part of the team.  But if that is the case, it is hard to imagine you leaving that situation under normal circumstances.  Best to play it safe if you aren't sure.

That being said, once you have an offer, talk to your boss or manager about it.  You can use the offer as leverage for something more.  "Something more" need not be more money, but it can be whatever reason you might have for thinking about leaving (e.g., promotion, experience).  If you think you can have a good discussion about it, talk to your boss about his or her thoughts on the offer and reasons for going or staying.  He or she may convince you to stay.

9. Great isn't good enough.  You have to be the best

In an employer's market, with tens, even hundreds, of people applying for the same job, getting an interview is an accomplishment.  But even if you get that far, you will still be competing against several others.  It doesn't matter if you can easily do the job and if you are a great fit.  If you aren't the best fit, you won't get the job.  You have to be the best.  Sometimes you aren't, and that is hard, because you didn't do anything wrong.  You just got unlucky, beaten by a better candidate even though you truly did your best and couldn't have done anything more.  Pick yourself up and try again.  If you don't give up, someday, you will be the best and you will get the job.

10. The grass isn't always greener

Why are you interviewing in the first place?  Potential employers will ask you, so you better know why.  Is it for better compensation, more employer engagement, better job experience, a promotion, work-life balance?  What will you gain by leaving?  What will you lose?  Make sure you understand what you really want and the prospects for getting these things.  Then before you decide to interview or leave for other positions, consider how you might bring about or participate in the desired changes in your current role.

If you want a raise or promotion, have you asked for one?  If the work-life balance is bothering you, have you talked with your boss about solutions?  If company engagement is lacking, have you suggested ideas for better communication and engagement?  Changing jobs is difficult, and you especially don't want to trade a mediocre, or even good, known, for a bad unknown that you thought would be great but isn't.

Do an honest assessment of your wants, needs, and expectations, and think realistically about whether these will be satisfied somewhere else, or if you can get them in your current role.  You may be surprised to discover that where you are already is in fact the best place to be all things considered.

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Hope that helps.  What do you think?  What has been most challenging and surprising in your job search and interview experience?


Thursday, January 26, 2017

2016 NFL Game Predictions: Superbowl

 
















Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2016 Predictions:


_________________________________________________________________________________

Recap Superbowl:

Summary:
  • Outcome model: 1 - 0
  • Ensemble model: 1 - 0
  • Expected value: 0.574
  • Running total: 153 - 98 (61%)
Well, you watched the game.  Falcons owned the first half, Patriots owned the 4th quarter.  Falcons made some bad calls and had some unlucky plays, while the Patriots had some miracles and amazing plays.  Boring first half, with Falcons leading 21 - 3.  Exciting 4th quarter with 19 points by the Patriots to tie the game, send it into OT, and then win with a TD.  Ridiculous.  But, it's the Patriots, so we shouldn't be too surprised, right?
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Superbowl:
2 - 0 in the Conference Championships. 5 - 5 in the playoffs.  Playoffs are just harder to predict with more evenly matched teams and fewer games.  So what about this last round? This won't be a surprise to anyone, but what do the models predict for the Superbowl?
Predictions:
  • Patriots vs. Falcons
    •  Patriots will win: 57.4% with 5 PD and a final score of 29 - 23.  All models agree.  Going with the Patriots to win .

Expected value this week is 0.574 correct predictions out of 1 game.  Haha.  Last one of the season.  Hoping for a Falcon's victory, but c'mon, we know the Patriots are going to win. (sigh)  Or will they...? You never really know :)
Here are the predictions for the Superbowl:

Week
Date
Team
Home Away
Opponent
Prob. Win
Pred. Team Win
Actual Team Win
Pred. Team PD
Actual Team PD
Pred. Team Score
Pred. Opp. Score
Actual Team Score
Actual Opp. Score  
Ensemble Prediction Win     
SuperBowl
2/5/2017
Falcons
@
Patriots
0.426
0
0
-5
-6
23
29
28
34
0
SuperBowl
2/5/2017
Patriots
@
Falcons
0.574
1
1
5
6
29
23
34
28
1
Good luck and enjoy the game!

Thursday, January 19, 2017

2016 NFL Game Predictions: Conference Championship



 










 Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2016 Predictions:


 _________________________________________________________________________________

Recap Conference Championships:

Summary:
  • Outcome model: 2 - 0
  • Ensemble model: 2 - 0
  • Expected value: 1.116
  • Running total: 152 - 98 (61%)
Both predictions were correct.  Falcons beat the Packers and Patriots beat the Steelers, meaning its Patriots vs. Falcons in the Superbowl. 

Falcons offense crushed the Packers in the first half: 24 - 0.  Packers had some missed plays, an interception, and a fumble near the end zone.  Falcons added another TD to make it 31 - 0.  The second half traded scoring, but the first half hole was just too much to come back from this time for the Packers.

Patriots played good, consistent football.  Up 10 - 0 in first quarter.  Steelers offense struggled to get going and couldn't get in the endzone at the end of the second quarter.  Patriots pulled away in the third quarter with 16 unanaswered points.  Patriots were up 33 - 9 at the end of the 3rd quarter.  Steelers still couldn't get a TD in the beginning of the 4th quarter, and gave up an interception.  Despite a late TD by the Steelers, they just couldn't come back against a solid, consistent Patriots team.

Last round of predictions for this season with the Superbowl!  It's Patriots vs. Falcons.  Who will come out on top in the last prediction?  ___________________________________________________________________________________
Conference Championships:
1 - 3 in the Divisional.  I guess I should have been worried about the Cowboys.  That's football I guess.  Moving on, only 2 games this week.  What do my models predict?

Predictions:
  • Falcons vs. Packers
    •  Falcons play at home and predicted to win (55.7%) with a PD of 3 and final score of 26-23.  All models agree on a Falcons win.  Packers are on fire and Aaron Rodgers is playing so well.  Can they pull off another win?  I hope so, but I gotta go with my models: predicting a Falcons victory.
  • Patriots vs. Steelers
    • No surprise.  Patriots will win: 55.9% with 8 PD and a final score of 27 - 20.  Going with the Patriots to win .

Expected value this week is 1.116 correct predictions out of 2 games.  So it might as well be a coin toss.  With only two games, one can't really do much better than that.  Hoping for at least one correct prediction.
Here are the predictions for the Conference Championships:
Week
Date
Team
Home Away
Opponent
Prob. Win
Pred. Team Win
Actual Team Win
Pred. Team PD
Actual Team PD
Pred. Team Score
Pred. Opp. Score
Actual Team Score
Actual Opp. Score  
Ensemble Prediction Win     
Conf. Champ.
1/22/2017
Falcons
Packers
0.557
1
1
3
23
26
23
44
21
1
Conf. Champ.
1/22/2017
Packers
@
Falcons
0.443
0
0
-3
-23
23
26
21
44
0
Conf. Champ.
1/22/2017
Patriots
Steelers
0.559
1
1
8
19
27
20
36
17
1
Conf. Champ.
1/22/2017
Steelers
@
Patriots
0.441
0
0
-8
-19
20
27
17
36
0
The Road to the Superbowl
Here is the latest projection:

Conference Championships:

AFC:

Patriots (1) vs. Steelers (3) -> Patriots (1)  (0.559)

NFC:

Falcons (2)  vs. Packers (4) -> Falcons (2)  (0.557)

Superbowl:

Patriots (1)  vs. Falcons (2) ->Patriots (1) (0.619)

It's looking more and more likely that the Patriots will win the Superbowl, again.  I never thought I would say this, but, go Steelers!?
Good luck this weekend!

Thursday, January 12, 2017

2016 NFL Game Predictions: Divisional Round


 














Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2016 Predictions:


 _________________________________________________________________________________

Recap Divisional Round:

Summary:
  • Outcome model: 1 - 3
  • Ensemble model: 1 - 3
  • Expected value: 2.311
  • Running total: 150 - 98 (60%)
Ouch.  Not a good week.  Only the Patriots actually won in my predictions.  Seahawks, Chiefs, and Cowboys all lost.  I am not surprised by the Seahawks.  They have been consistently inconsistent all season, and with so many injuries on offense and defense, this was bound to happen sooner or later.  Looks like the Cowboys and the Packers had a back and forth game with an amazing Aaron Rodgers game and finish.  Cowboys got a little too far behind and never got a good lead, despite 18 points in the 4th quarter.  Great game.  Chiefs vs. Steelers: no TDs for the Steelers, but they still won!  Another back and forth game, even some trading of interceptions.  A couple critical mistakes by the Chiefs, and although the defense never let a TD occur, they didn't do much to stop the Steelers from driving downfield.  Holding penalty on would be 2-point conversion to tie the game, and the second attempt doesn't get in.  Tough break.

On to the conference championships!

_____________________________________________________________________________________
Divisional Round:
2 - 2 in the Wildcard round.  What do I foresee in the Divisional round?

Predictions:
  • Falcons vs. Seahawks
    • All models agree on a Seahawks victory: 50.8% with a 1 PD and a final score of 25 - 24.  Seahawks are on the road though and haven't been consistent.  Last week was great, but can they bring that same energy?  It's a toss up.
  • Patriots vs. Texans
    • Patriots will win: 67.4% with 8 PD and a final score of 26 - 21.  If the Texans win, this will be a major upset.  Going with the Patriots.
  • Chiefs vs. Steelers
    • Models are not in agreement.  Outcome predicts 51.3% Chiefs victory, with a -1 PD and a final score of 26 - 24.  Steelers are solid and pretty consistent, but I am inclined to go with the Chiefs who are at home.  Chief's victory.
  • Cowboys vs. Packers
    • All models agree on a Cowboys win: 61.6%, 5 PD, 28 - 21.  Cowboys are at home.  Definitely picking the Cowboys.

Expected value this week is 2.311 correct predictions out of 4 games.  So hoping for between 2 and 3 correct.  Again, that is basically just guessing with only 4 games to predict.  A little more optimistic than last week though.  Each prediction favors the higher seed except the Falcons/Seahawks game.  I hope it is correct.
Here are the predictions for the Divisional Round:
Week
Date
Team
Home Away
Opponent
Prob. Win
Pred. Team Win
Actual Team Win
Pred. Team PD
Actual Team PD
Pred. Team Score
Pred. Opp. Score
Actual Team Score
Actual Opp. Score  
Ensemble Prediction Win     
Division
1/14/2017
Falcons
Seahawks
0.492
0
1
-1
16
24
25
36
20
0
Division
1/14/2017
Patriots
Texans
0.674
1
1
8
18
26
21
34
16
1
Division
1/14/2017
Seahawks
@
Falcons
0.508
1
0
1
-16
25
24
20
36
1
Division
1/14/2017
Texans
@
Patriots
0.326
0
0
-8
-18
21
26
16
34
0
Division
1/15/2017
Chiefs
Steelers
0.513
1
0
-1
-2
26
24
16
18
0.67
Division
1/15/2017
Cowboys
Packers
0.616
1
0
5
-3
28
21
31
34
1
Division
1/15/2017
Packers
@
Cowboys
0.384
0
1
-5
3
21
28
34
31
0
Division
1/15/2017
Steelers
@
Chiefs
0.487
0
1
1
2
24
26
18
16
0.33
The Road to the Superbowl
Here is the latest projection:

Divisional Round:

AFC:

Patriots (1) vs. Texans (4) -> Patriots (1)  (0.674)
Chiefs (2) vs. Steelers (3) -> Chiefs (2) (0.513)

NFC:

Cowboys (1) vs. Packers (4) -> Cowboys (1) (0.616)
Falcons (2) vs. Seahawks (3)-> Seahawks (3) (0.508)


Conference Championships:

AFC:

Patriots (1) vs. Chiefs (2) -> Patriots (1)  (0.543)

NFC:

Cowboys (1)  vs. Seahawks (3) -> Cowboys (1)  (0.539)

Superbowl:

Patriots (1)  vs. Cowboys (1) ->Patriots (1) (0.501)

Oh no!  Patriots are now my favorite to win the Superbowl.  Don't worry, it is only 50.1% likely according to my model if the Patriots get to the Superbowl.  The likelihood that any particular team makes it to the Superbowl is small.  And the model didn't know that many Cowboy starters rested in the final game (which was a loss), so that definitely impacted the prediction.  Not too worried :)
Good luck this weekend!