- AFC: Raiders, Patriots, Texans, Steelers, Broncos, Dolphins
- NFC: Cowboys, Seahawks, Falcons, Lions, Redskins, Giants/Vikings
Team
|
Remaining Predicted Wins
|
Remaining Predicted Losses
|
Previous Wins
|
Previous Losses
|
Total Wins
|
Total Losses
|
Conference
|
Division
|
Rank Conference
|
Patriots
|
5
|
1
|
8
|
2
|
13
|
3
|
AFC
|
East
|
2
|
Dolphins
|
5
|
1
|
6
|
4
|
11
|
5
|
AFC
|
East
|
5
|
Bills
|
4
|
2
|
5
|
5
|
9
|
7
|
AFC
|
East
|
7
|
Jets
|
2
|
4
|
3
|
7
|
5
|
11
|
AFC
|
East
|
13
|
Steelers
|
4
|
2
|
5
|
5
|
9
|
7
|
AFC
|
North
|
8
|
Ravens
|
3
|
3
|
5
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
AFC
|
North
|
9
|
Bengals
|
1
|
5
|
3.5
|
6.5
|
4.5
|
11.5
|
AFC
|
North
|
14
|
Browns
|
0
|
5
|
0
|
11
|
0
|
16
|
AFC
|
North
|
16
|
Texans
|
6
|
0
|
6
|
4
|
12
|
4
|
AFC
|
South
|
4
|
Titans
|
2
|
3
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
9
|
AFC
|
South
|
10
|
Colts
|
1
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
10
|
AFC
|
South
|
11
|
Jaguars
|
0
|
6
|
2
|
8
|
2
|
14
|
AFC
|
South
|
15
|
Raiders
|
6
|
0
|
8
|
2
|
14
|
2
|
AFC
|
West
|
1
|
Broncos
|
5
|
1
|
7
|
3
|
12
|
4
|
AFC
|
West
|
3
|
Chiefs
|
3
|
3
|
7
|
3
|
10
|
6
|
AFC
|
West
|
6
|
Chargers
|
1
|
5
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
11
|
AFC
|
West
|
12
|
Cowboys
|
5
|
1
|
9
|
1
|
14
|
2
|
NFC
|
East
|
1
|
Redskins
|
6
|
0
|
6.5
|
3.5
|
12.5
|
3.5
|
NFC
|
East
|
3
|
Giants
|
3
|
3
|
7
|
3
|
10
|
6
|
NFC
|
East
|
6
|
Eagles
|
2
|
4
|
5
|
5
|
7
|
9
|
NFC
|
East
|
9
|
Lions
|
5
|
1
|
6
|
4
|
11
|
5
|
NFC
|
North
|
5
|
Vikings
|
4
|
2
|
6
|
4
|
10
|
6
|
NFC
|
North
|
7
|
Packers
|
1
|
5
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
11
|
NFC
|
North
|
12
|
Bears
|
0
|
6
|
2
|
8
|
2
|
14
|
NFC
|
North
|
16
|
Falcons
|
5
|
1
|
6
|
4
|
11
|
5
|
NFC
|
South
|
4
|
Buccaneers
|
3
|
3
|
5
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
NFC
|
South
|
8
|
Saints
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
6
|
7
|
9
|
NFC
|
South
|
10
|
Panthers
|
1
|
5
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
11
|
NFC
|
South
|
13
|
Seahawks
|
6
|
0
|
7.5
|
2.5
|
13.5
|
2.5
|
NFC
|
West
|
2
|
Cardinals
|
1
|
5
|
4.5
|
5.5
|
5.5
|
10.5
|
NFC
|
West
|
11
|
Rams
|
1
|
5
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
11
|
NFC
|
West
|
14
|
49ers
|
1
|
5
|
1
|
9
|
2
|
14
|
NFC
|
West
|
15
|
But this would suggest that teams that are barely likely to lose every game will not win a single one, and teams that are barely likely to win every game will win each one, which are not reasonable assumptions. So let's instead total up the probabilities of wins and losses per team for the remainder of the season to get the expected values of wins and losses per team. That will give us this picture, which is going to be more accurate because it is relying on the probability of win/loss:
- AFC: Patriots, Raiders, Texans, Steelers, Broncos, Chiefs
- NFC: Cowboys, Seahawks, Falcons, Lions, Redskins, Giants
So the Dolphins are out and the Chiefs are in for the AFC. For the NFC, the results stay the same but the Vikings lose out to the Giants.
Team
|
Remaining Predicted Wins
|
Remaining Predicted Losses
|
Previous Wins
|
Previous Losses
|
Total Wins
|
Total Losses
|
Conference
|
Division
|
Rank Conference
|
Patriots
|
3.815
|
2.185
|
8
|
2
|
11.815
|
4.185
|
AFC
|
East
|
1
|
Dolphins
|
3.906
|
2.094
|
6
|
4
|
9.906
|
6.094
|
AFC
|
East
|
6
|
Bills
|
3.78
|
2.22
|
5
|
5
|
8.78
|
7.22
|
AFC
|
East
|
7
|
Jets
|
2.389
|
3.611
|
3
|
7
|
5.389
|
10.611
|
AFC
|
East
|
14
|
Steelers
|
3.498
|
2.502
|
5
|
5
|
8.498
|
7.502
|
AFC
|
North
|
8
|
Ravens
|
2.989
|
3.011
|
5
|
5
|
7.989
|
8.011
|
AFC
|
North
|
9
|
Bengals
|
2.448
|
3.552
|
3.5
|
6.5
|
5.948
|
10.052
|
AFC
|
North
|
13
|
Browns
|
0.54
|
4.46
|
0
|
11
|
0.54
|
15.46
|
AFC
|
North
|
16
|
Texans
|
4.335
|
1.665
|
6
|
4
|
10.335
|
5.665
|
AFC
|
South
|
5
|
Colts
|
2.911
|
3.089
|
5
|
5
|
7.911
|
8.089
|
AFC
|
South
|
10
|
Titans
|
2.866
|
2.134
|
5
|
6
|
7.866
|
8.134
|
AFC
|
South
|
11
|
Jaguars
|
1.169
|
4.831
|
2
|
8
|
3.169
|
12.831
|
AFC
|
South
|
15
|
Raiders
|
3.707
|
2.293
|
8
|
2
|
11.707
|
4.293
|
AFC
|
West
|
2
|
Broncos
|
3.593
|
2.407
|
7
|
3
|
10.593
|
5.407
|
AFC
|
West
|
3
|
Chiefs
|
3.342
|
2.658
|
7
|
3
|
10.342
|
5.658
|
AFC
|
West
|
4
|
Chargers
|
2.625
|
3.375
|
4
|
6
|
6.625
|
9.375
|
AFC
|
West
|
12
|
Cowboys
|
3.473
|
2.527
|
9
|
1
|
12.473
|
3.527
|
NFC
|
East
|
1
|
Redskins
|
4.397
|
1.603
|
6.5
|
3.5
|
10.897
|
5.103
|
NFC
|
East
|
3
|
Giants
|
3.671
|
2.329
|
7
|
3
|
10.671
|
5.329
|
NFC
|
East
|
4
|
Eagles
|
2.432
|
3.568
|
5
|
5
|
7.432
|
8.568
|
NFC
|
East
|
9
|
Lions
|
3.858
|
2.142
|
6
|
4
|
9.858
|
6.142
|
NFC
|
North
|
6
|
Vikings
|
3.805
|
2.195
|
6
|
4
|
9.805
|
6.195
|
NFC
|
North
|
7
|
Packers
|
1.829
|
4.171
|
4
|
6
|
5.829
|
10.171
|
NFC
|
North
|
13
|
Bears
|
1.049
|
4.951
|
2
|
8
|
3.049
|
12.951
|
NFC
|
North
|
15
|
Falcons
|
3.976
|
2.024
|
6
|
4
|
9.976
|
6.024
|
NFC
|
South
|
5
|
Buccaneers
|
2.861
|
3.139
|
5
|
5
|
7.861
|
8.139
|
NFC
|
South
|
8
|
Saints
|
2.974
|
3.026
|
4
|
6
|
6.974
|
9.026
|
NFC
|
South
|
10
|
Panthers
|
1.772
|
4.228
|
4
|
6
|
5.772
|
10.228
|
NFC
|
South
|
14
|
Seahawks
|
4.733
|
1.267
|
7.5
|
2.5
|
12.233
|
3.767
|
NFC
|
West
|
2
|
Cardinals
|
2.301
|
3.699
|
4.5
|
5.5
|
6.801
|
9.199
|
NFC
|
West
|
11
|
Rams
|
2.212
|
3.788
|
4
|
6
|
6.212
|
9.788
|
NFC
|
West
|
12
|
49ers
|
1.744
|
4.256
|
1
|
9
|
2.744
|
13.256
|
NFC
|
West
|
16
|
