2016 NFL Game Predictions: Superbowl

 
















Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2016 Predictions:

• Conference Championships: 2 - 0
• Divisional Round: 1 - 3
• Wildcard Week: 2 - 2
• Week 17: 10 - 6
• Week 16: 10 - 6
• Week 15: 13 - 3
• Week 14: 11 -5
• Week 13: 8 - 7
• Week 12: 11 - 5 
• Week 11: 9 - 5
• Week 10: 9 - 5
• Week 9: 8 - 5
• Week 8: 6.5 - 6.5
• Week 7: 8.5 - 6.5
• Week 6: 8 - 7
• Week 5: 8 - 6
• Week 4: 7 - 8
• Week 3: 9 - 7
• Week 2: 11 - 5

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Recap Superbowl:

Summary:

• Outcome model: 1 - 0
• Ensemble model: 1 - 0
• Expected value: 0.574
• Running total: 153 - 98 (61%)

Well, you watched the game.  Falcons owned the first half, Patriots owned the 4th quarter.  Falcons made some bad calls and had some unlucky plays, while the Patriots had some miracles and amazing plays.  Boring first half, with Falcons leading 21 - 3.  Exciting 4th quarter with 19 points by the Patriots to tie the game, send it into OT, and then win with a TD.  Ridiculous.  But, it's the Patriots, so we shouldn't be too surprised, right?
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Superbowl:

2 - 0 in the Conference Championships. 5 - 5 in the playoffs.  Playoffs are just harder to predict with more evenly matched teams and fewer games.  So what about this last round? This won't be a surprise to anyone, but what do the models predict for the Superbowl?

Predictions:

• Patriots vs. Falcons
•  Patriots will win: 57.4% with 5 PD and a final score of 29 - 23.  All models agree.  Going with the Patriots to win .

Expected value this week is 0.574 correct predictions out of 1 game.  Haha.  Last one of the season.  Hoping for a Falcon's victory, but c'mon, we know the Patriots are going to win. (sigh)  Or will they...? You never really know :)

Here are the predictions for the Superbowl:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Prob. Win	Pred. Team Win	Actual Team Win	Pred. Team PD	Actual Team PD	Pred. Team Score	Pred. Opp. Score	Actual Team Score	Actual Opp. Score	Ensemble Prediction Win
SuperBowl	2/5/2017	Falcons	@	Patriots	0.426	0	0	-5	-6	23	29	28	34	0
SuperBowl	2/5/2017	Patriots	@	Falcons	0.574	1	1	5	6	29	23	34	28	1

Good luck and enjoy the game!