2016 NFL Game Predictions: Week 15

 

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2016 Predictions:

• Week 14: 11 -5
• Week 13: 8 - 7
• Week 12: 11 - 5 
• Week 11: 9 - 5
• Week 10: 9 - 5
• Week 9: 8 - 5
• Week 8: 6.5 - 6.5
• Week 7: 8.5 - 6.5
• Week 6: 8 - 7
• Week 5: 8 - 6
• Week 4: 7 - 8
• Week 3: 9 - 7
• Week 2: 11 - 5

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Recap Week 15:

Summary:

• Outcome model: 13 - 3
• Ensemble model: 11 - 5
• Expected value: 11.146
• Running total: 127 - 81 (61%)
• Surprises:
• Titans beat Chiefs
• Chiefs score early, Titans fumble near the end zone and Chiefs recover.  Titans get a TD, but Chiefs recover another fumble.  They can't get it in the end zone.  Chiefs led 17 - 7 at the half.  Another Chiefs interception, but Titans get an interception in the end zone.  Titans get 12 points in the 4th quarter to take the win.  Looks like the Chief's defense just gave up in the 4th quarter.
• Panthers beat the Redskins
• Redskins had many turnovers, including a fumble at their own goal line which led to a TD.  Panthers were able to keep the ball moving and kept getting points, especially in third quarter.  Jordon Reed threw a punch and got ejected.  Looks like things just went well for the Panthers and didn't go well for the Redskins. 

 13-3!  Interesting that the ensemble model did worse, although it was more consistent with what I expected.  With this week, I am back over 60% correct predictions.  Only two more weeks before playoffs.  Let's keep it going.

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 Week 15:

No changes this week.  Still busy.   But here is what I see in the latest round of predictions:

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

•  Cardinals vs. Saints
• Saints predicted to win (barely above 50%),  with a PD of 3 points and a final score of 21-24 (Cardinals win).  The models are split.  Cardinals play at home.  I could go either way.
• Colts vs. Vikings
• My outcome model predicts a Colts victory (52%), with a PD of -1, and a final score of 19-21.  So the other models favor a Viking's victory.  Vikings have the better record and are playing at home, so I would personally pick the Vikings.

There is a lot of agreement in my models this week, and the predictions make a lot of intuitive sense.  Expected value this week is 11.146 correct predictions out of 16 games.  So hoping for between 11 and 12 correct, where 12 would be the highest this season.  Here's hoping.  Good luck!

Here are the predictions for Week 15:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Prob. Win	Pred. Team Win	Actual Team Win	Pred. Team PD	Actual Team PD	Pred. Team Score	Pred. Opp. Score	Actual Team Score	Actual Opp. Score	Ensemble Prediction Win
15	12/15/2016	Rams	@	Seahawks	0.196	0	0	-11	-21	15	24	3	24	0.00
15	12/15/2016	Seahawks		Rams	0.804	1	1	11	21	24	15	24	3	1.00
15	12/17/2016	Dolphins	@	Jets	0.632	1	1	-1	21	18	19	34	13	0.33
15	12/17/2016	Jets		Dolphins	0.368	0	0	1	-21	19	18	13	34	0.67
15	12/18/2016	49ers	@	Falcons	0.133	0	0	-10	-28	14	26	13	41	0.00
15	12/18/2016	Bears		Packers	0.144	0	0	-9	-3	15	25	27	30	0.00
15	12/18/2016	Bengals		Steelers	0.257	0	0	-6	-4	19	24	20	24	0.00
15	12/18/2016	Bills		Browns	0.859	1	1	9	20	26	17	33	13	1.00
15	12/18/2016	Broncos		Patriots	0.412	0	0	-6	-13	18	24	3	16	0.00
15	12/18/2016	Browns	@	Bills	0.141	0	0	-9	-20	17	26	13	33	0.00
15	12/18/2016	Buccaneers	@	Cowboys	0.396	0	0	-6	-6	20	28	20	26	0.00
15	12/18/2016	Cardinals		Saints	0.5	0	0	-3	-7	24	21	41	48	0.33
15	12/18/2016	Chargers		Raiders	0.377	0	0	-4	-3	21	27	16	19	0.00
15	12/18/2016	Chiefs		Titans	0.607	1	0	7	-2	29	19	17	19	1.00
15	12/18/2016	Colts	@	Vikings	0.521	1	1	-1	28	19	21	34	6	0.33
15	12/18/2016	Cowboys		Buccaneers	0.604	1	1	6	6	28	20	26	20	1.00
15	12/18/2016	Eagles	@	Ravens	0.283	0	0	-3	-1	18	19	26	27	0.00
15	12/18/2016	Falcons		49ers	0.867	1	1	10	28	26	14	41	13	1.00
15	12/18/2016	Giants		Lions	0.457	0	1	-2	11	24	28	17	6	0.00
15	12/18/2016	Jaguars	@	Texans	0.106	0	0	-11	-1	13	26	20	21	0.00
15	12/18/2016	Lions	@	Giants	0.543	1	0	2	-11	28	24	6	17	1.00
15	12/18/2016	Packers	@	Bears	0.856	1	1	9	3	25	15	30	27	1.00
15	12/18/2016	Patriots	@	Broncos	0.588	1	1	6	13	24	18	16	3	1.00
15	12/18/2016	Raiders	@	Chargers	0.623	1	1	4	3	27	21	19	16	1.00
15	12/18/2016	Ravens		Eagles	0.717	1	1	3	1	19	18	27	26	1.00
15	12/18/2016	Saints	@	Cardinals	0.5	1	1	3	7	21	24	48	41	0.67
15	12/18/2016	Steelers	@	Bengals	0.743	1	1	6	4	24	19	24	20	1.00
15	12/18/2016	Texans		Jaguars	0.894	1	1	11	1	26	13	21	20	1.00
15	12/18/2016	Titans	@	Chiefs	0.393	0	1	-7	2	19	29	19	17	0.00
15	12/18/2016	Vikings		Colts	0.479	0	0	1	-28	21	19	6	34	0.67
15	12/19/2016	Panthers	@	Redskins	0.212	0	1	-4	11	21	25	26	15	0.00
15	12/19/2016	Redskins		Panthers	0.788	1	0	4	-11	25	21	15	26	1.00