Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2016 Predictions:
- Divisional Round: 1 - 3
- Wildcard Week: 2 - 2
- Week 17: 10 - 6
- Week 16: 10 - 6
- Week 15: 13 - 3
- Week 14: 11 -5
- Week 13: 8 - 7
- Week 12: 11 - 5
- Week 11: 9 - 5
- Week 10: 9 - 5
- Week 9: 8 - 5
- Week 8: 6.5 - 6.5
- Week 7: 8.5 - 6.5
- Week 6: 8 - 7
- Week 5: 8 - 6
- Week 4: 7 - 8
- Week 3: 9 - 7
- Week 2: 11 - 5
_________________________________________________________________________________
Recap Conference Championships:
Summary:
Both predictions were correct. Falcons beat the Packers and Patriots beat the Steelers, meaning its Patriots vs. Falcons in the Superbowl.
Falcons offense crushed the Packers in the first half: 24 - 0. Packers had some missed plays, an interception, and a fumble near the end zone. Falcons added another TD to make it 31 - 0. The second half traded scoring, but the first half hole was just too much to come back from this time for the Packers.
Patriots played good, consistent football. Up 10 - 0 in first quarter. Steelers offense struggled to get going and couldn't get in the endzone at the end of the second quarter. Patriots pulled away in the third quarter with 16 unanaswered points. Patriots were up 33 - 9 at the end of the 3rd quarter. Steelers still couldn't get a TD in the beginning of the 4th quarter, and gave up an interception. Despite a late TD by the Steelers, they just couldn't come back against a solid, consistent Patriots team.
Last round of predictions for this season with the Superbowl! It's Patriots vs. Falcons. Who will come out on top in the last prediction? ___________________________________________________________________________________
Recap Conference Championships:
Summary:
- Outcome model: 2 - 0
- Ensemble model: 2 - 0
- Expected value: 1.116
- Running total: 152 - 98 (61%)
Falcons offense crushed the Packers in the first half: 24 - 0. Packers had some missed plays, an interception, and a fumble near the end zone. Falcons added another TD to make it 31 - 0. The second half traded scoring, but the first half hole was just too much to come back from this time for the Packers.
Patriots played good, consistent football. Up 10 - 0 in first quarter. Steelers offense struggled to get going and couldn't get in the endzone at the end of the second quarter. Patriots pulled away in the third quarter with 16 unanaswered points. Patriots were up 33 - 9 at the end of the 3rd quarter. Steelers still couldn't get a TD in the beginning of the 4th quarter, and gave up an interception. Despite a late TD by the Steelers, they just couldn't come back against a solid, consistent Patriots team.
Last round of predictions for this season with the Superbowl! It's Patriots vs. Falcons. Who will come out on top in the last prediction? ___________________________________________________________________________________
Conference Championships:
Predictions:
- Falcons vs. Packers
- Falcons play at home and predicted to win (55.7%) with a PD of 3 and final score of 26-23. All models agree on a Falcons win. Packers are on fire and Aaron Rodgers is playing so well. Can they pull off another win? I hope so, but I gotta go with my models: predicting a Falcons victory.
- Patriots vs. Steelers
- No surprise. Patriots will win: 55.9% with 8 PD and a final score of 27 - 20. Going with the Patriots to win .
Expected value this week is 1.116 correct predictions out of 2 games. So it might as well be a coin toss. With only two games, one can't really do much better than that. Hoping for at least one correct prediction.
Here are the predictions for the Conference Championships:
Week
|
Date
|
Team
|
Home Away
|
Opponent
|
Prob. Win
|
Pred. Team Win
|
Actual Team Win
|
Pred. Team PD
|
Actual Team PD
|
Pred. Team Score
|
Pred. Opp. Score
|
Actual Team Score
|
Actual Opp. Score
|
Ensemble Prediction
Win
|
Conf. Champ.
|
1/22/2017
|
Falcons
|
Packers
|
0.557
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
23
|
26
|
23
|
44
|
21
|
1
| |
Conf. Champ.
|
1/22/2017
|
Packers
|
@
|
Falcons
|
0.443
|
0
|
0
|
-3
|
-23
|
23
|
26
|
21
|
44
|
0
|
Conf. Champ.
|
1/22/2017
|
Patriots
|
Steelers
|
0.559
|
1
|
1
|
8
|
19
|
27
|
20
|
36
|
17
|
1
| |
Conf. Champ.
|
1/22/2017
|
Steelers
|
@
|
Patriots
|
0.441
|
0
|
0
|
-8
|
-19
|
20
|
27
|
17
|
36
|
0
|
The Road to the Superbowl
Here is the latest projection:
Conference Championships:
AFC:
Patriots (1) vs. Steelers (3) -> Patriots (1) (0.559)
NFC:
Falcons (2) vs. Packers (4) -> Falcons (2) (0.557)
Superbowl:
Patriots (1) vs. Falcons (2) ->Patriots (1) (0.619)
It's looking more and more likely that the Patriots will win the Superbowl, again. I never thought I would say this, but, go Steelers!?
Good luck this weekend!
