Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2016 Predictions:
- Wildcard Week: 2 - 2
- Week 17: 10 - 6
- Week 16: 10 - 6
- Week 15: 13 - 3
- Week 14: 11 -5
- Week 13: 8 - 7
- Week 12: 11 - 5
- Week 11: 9 - 5
- Week 10: 9 - 5
- Week 9: 8 - 5
- Week 8: 6.5 - 6.5
- Week 7: 8.5 - 6.5
- Week 6: 8 - 7
- Week 5: 8 - 6
- Week 4: 7 - 8
- Week 3: 9 - 7
- Week 2: 11 - 5
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Recap Divisional Round:
Summary:
Ouch. Not a good week. Only the Patriots actually won in my predictions. Seahawks, Chiefs, and Cowboys all lost. I am not surprised by the Seahawks. They have been consistently inconsistent all season, and with so many injuries on offense and defense, this was bound to happen sooner or later. Looks like the Cowboys and the Packers had a back and forth game with an amazing Aaron Rodgers game and finish. Cowboys got a little too far behind and never got a good lead, despite 18 points in the 4th quarter. Great game. Chiefs vs. Steelers: no TDs for the Steelers, but they still won! Another back and forth game, even some trading of interceptions. A couple critical mistakes by the Chiefs, and although the defense never let a TD occur, they didn't do much to stop the Steelers from driving downfield. Holding penalty on would be 2-point conversion to tie the game, and the second attempt doesn't get in. Tough break.
On to the conference championships!
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Recap Divisional Round:
Summary:
- Outcome model: 1 - 3
- Ensemble model: 1 - 3
- Expected value: 2.311
- Running total: 150 - 98 (60%)
On to the conference championships!
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Divisional Round:
Predictions:
- Falcons vs. Seahawks
- All models agree on a Seahawks victory: 50.8% with a 1 PD and a final score of 25 - 24. Seahawks are on the road though and haven't been consistent. Last week was great, but can they bring that same energy? It's a toss up.
- Patriots vs. Texans
- Patriots will win: 67.4% with 8 PD and a final score of 26 - 21. If the Texans win, this will be a major upset. Going with the Patriots.
- Chiefs vs. Steelers
- Models are not in agreement. Outcome predicts 51.3% Chiefs victory, with a -1 PD and a final score of 26 - 24. Steelers are solid and pretty consistent, but I am inclined to go with the Chiefs who are at home. Chief's victory.
- Cowboys vs. Packers
- All models agree on a Cowboys win: 61.6%, 5 PD, 28 - 21. Cowboys are at home. Definitely picking the Cowboys.
Expected value this week is 2.311 correct predictions out of 4 games. So hoping for between 2 and 3 correct. Again, that is basically just guessing with only 4 games to predict. A little more optimistic than last week though. Each prediction favors the higher seed except the Falcons/Seahawks game. I hope it is correct.
Here are the predictions for the Divisional Round:
Week
|
Date
|
Team
|
Home Away
|
Opponent
|
Prob. Win
|
Pred. Team Win
|
Actual Team Win
|
Pred. Team PD
|
Actual Team PD
|
Pred. Team Score
|
Pred. Opp. Score
|
Actual Team Score
|
Actual Opp. Score
|
Ensemble Prediction
Win
|
Division
|
1/14/2017
|
Falcons
|
Seahawks
|
0.492
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
16
|
24
|
25
|
36
|
20
|
0
| |
Division
|
1/14/2017
|
Patriots
|
Texans
|
0.674
|
1
|
1
|
8
|
18
|
26
|
21
|
34
|
16
|
1
| |
Division
|
1/14/2017
|
Seahawks
|
@
|
Falcons
|
0.508
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
-16
|
25
|
24
|
20
|
36
|
1
|
Division
|
1/14/2017
|
Texans
|
@
|
Patriots
|
0.326
|
0
|
0
|
-8
|
-18
|
21
|
26
|
16
|
34
|
0
|
Division
|
1/15/2017
|
Chiefs
|
Steelers
|
0.513
|
1
|
0
|
-1
|
-2
|
26
|
24
|
16
|
18
|
0.67
| |
Division
|
1/15/2017
|
Cowboys
|
Packers
|
0.616
|
1
|
0
|
5
|
-3
|
28
|
21
|
31
|
34
|
1
| |
Division
|
1/15/2017
|
Packers
|
@
|
Cowboys
|
0.384
|
0
|
1
|
-5
|
3
|
21
|
28
|
34
|
31
|
0
|
Division
|
1/15/2017
|
Steelers
|
@
|
Chiefs
|
0.487
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
24
|
26
|
18
|
16
|
0.33
|
The Road to the Superbowl
Here is the latest projection:
Divisional Round:
AFC:
Patriots (1) vs. Texans (4) -> Patriots (1) (0.674)
Chiefs (2) vs. Steelers (3) -> Chiefs (2) (0.513)
NFC:
Cowboys (1) vs. Packers (4) -> Cowboys (1) (0.616)
Falcons (2) vs. Seahawks (3)-> Seahawks (3) (0.508)
Conference Championships:
AFC:
Patriots (1) vs. Chiefs (2) -> Patriots (1) (0.543)
NFC:
Cowboys (1) vs. Seahawks (3) -> Cowboys (1) (0.539)
Superbowl:
Patriots (1) vs. Cowboys (1) ->Patriots (1) (0.501)
Oh no! Patriots are now my favorite to win the Superbowl. Don't worry, it is only 50.1% likely according to my model if the Patriots get to the Superbowl. The likelihood that any particular team makes it to the Superbowl is small. And the model didn't know that many Cowboy starters rested in the final game (which was a loss), so that definitely impacted the prediction. Not too worried :)
Good luck this weekend!
