Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2016 Predictions:
- Week 17: 10 - 6
- Week 16: 10 - 6
- Week 15: 13 - 3
- Week 14: 11 -5
- Week 13: 8 - 7
- Week 12: 11 - 5
- Week 11: 9 - 5
- Week 10: 9 - 5
- Week 9: 8 - 5
- Week 8: 6.5 - 6.5
- Week 7: 8.5 - 6.5
- Week 6: 8 - 7
- Week 5: 8 - 6
- Week 4: 7 - 8
- Week 3: 9 - 7
- Week 2: 11 - 5
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Recap Wild Card Week:
Summary:
No real surprises. Seahawks won, Steelers won as I had predicted. Texans won as I suspected they would (even though my model predicted otherwise). And I wasn't surprised by a Packer's win, although the magnitude of the win was a bit surprising. So nothing unusual here. On to the divisional round!
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Recap Wild Card Week:
Summary:
- Outcome model: 2 - 2
- Ensemble model: 3 - 1
- Expected value: 2.214
- Running total: 149 - 95 (61%)
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Wild Card Week:
Here we go! My playoff spot predictions from several weeks ago were the following:
- AFC: Patriots, Raiders, Steelers, Texans, Chiefs, Broncos
- NFC: Cowboys, Seahawks, Lions, Falcons, Giants, Redskins
Instead, the actuals are:
- AFC: Patriots, Chiefs, Steelers, Texans, Raiders, Dolphins
- NFC: Cowboys, Falcons, Seahawks, Packers, Giants, Lions
So what can we expect to happen during wildcard week? Who will win and go on to the divisional round?
Predictions:
- Lions vs. Seahawks
- Seahawks play at home and all models agree: Seahawks win. Going with the Seahawks.
- Raiders vs. Texans
- Raiders have the better record, but are playing on the road and are playing a rookie third-string QB. The outcome model is at 0.500 barely giving the game to the Raiders, but the PD is predicted to be 3 for the Texans with a final score of 26-21 Texans. I'd go with the Texans.
- Steelers vs. Dolphins
- Steelers play at home and all models agree on a Steeler's victory. I agree too.
- Giants vs. Packers
- All models favor the Giants to win, but they play on the road. PD is only 2 and final score is 26-25. I wouldn't be surprised by a Packer's win.
Expected value this week is 2.214 correct predictions out of 4 games. So hoping for between 2 and 3 correct. Not much better than a random guess, but with so few games and the best teams playing each other, it's not reasonable to expect much better. Here's hoping I get lucky :)
Here are the predictions for Wildcard Week:
Week
|
Date
|
Team
|
Home Away
|
Opponent
|
Prob. Win
|
Pred. Team Win
|
Actual Team Win
|
Pred. Team PD
|
Actual Team PD
|
Pred. Team Score
|
Pred. Opp. Score
|
Actual Team Score
|
Actual Opp. Score
|
Ensemble Prediction
Win
|
Wild Card
|
1/7/2017
|
Lions
|
@
|
Seahawks
|
0.417
|
0
|
0
|
-5
|
-20
|
23
|
26
|
6
|
26
|
0
|
Wild Card
|
1/7/2017
|
Raiders
|
@
|
Texans
|
0.5
|
1
|
0
|
-3
|
-13
|
21
|
26
|
14
|
27
|
0.33
|
Wild Card
|
1/7/2017
|
Seahawks
|
Lions
|
0.583
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
20
|
26
|
23
|
26
|
6
|
1
| |
Wild Card
|
1/7/2017
|
Texans
|
Raiders
|
0.5
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
13
|
26
|
21
|
27
|
14
|
0.67
| |
Wild Card
|
1/8/2017
|
Dolphins
|
@
|
Steelers
|
0.418
|
0
|
0
|
-9
|
-18
|
18
|
28
|
12
|
30
|
0
|
Wild Card
|
1/8/2017
|
Giants
|
@
|
Packers
|
0.549
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
-25
|
26
|
25
|
13
|
38
|
1
|
Wild Card
|
1/8/2017
|
Packers
|
Giants
|
0.451
|
0
|
1
|
-2
|
25
|
25
|
26
|
38
|
13
|
0
| |
Wild Card
|
1/8/2017
|
Steelers
|
Dolphins
|
0.582
|
1
|
1
|
9
|
18
|
28
|
18
|
30
|
12
|
1
|
The Road to the Superbowl
Assuming the above is correct, who will get to the Superbowl and win it? Here is my current projection:
Wildcard Round:
AFC:
Steelers (3) vs. Dolphins (6) -> Steelers (3) (0.582)
Texans (4) vs. Raiders (5) -> Raiders (5) (0.500)
NFC:
Seahawks (3) vs. Lions (6) -> Seahawks (3) (0.583)
Packers (4) vs. Giants (5) -> Giants (5) (0.549)
Divisional Round:
AFC:
Patriots (1) vs. Raiders (5) -> Patriots (1) (0.574)
Chiefs (2) vs. Steelers (3) -> Chiefs (2) (0.535)
NFC:
Cowboys (1) vs. Giants (5) -> Cowboys (1) (0.525)
Falcons (2) vs. Seahawks (3)-> Seahawks (3) (0.503)
Conference Championships:
AFC:
Patriots (1) vs. Chiefs (2) -> Patriots (1) (0.531)
NFC:
Cowboys (1) vs. Seahawks (3) -> Cowboys (1) (0.545)
Superbowl:
Patriots (1) vs. Cowboys (1) ->Cowboys (1) (0.512)
Cowboys win! I admit I am disappointed that I predict the Patriots to go to the Superbowl, again. But at least I don't think they will win. I'm still hoping for the Chiefs to make it instead. And by a prayer and some luck, for the Seahawks to go far.
So the Cowboys are still my favorite team to win the Superbowl.
We shall see what happens this weekend. Good luck!
