2016 NFL Game Predictions: Week 16

 

 Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2016 Predictions:

• Week 15: 13 - 3
• Week 14: 11 -5
• Week 13: 8 - 7
• Week 12: 11 - 5 
• Week 11: 9 - 5
• Week 10: 9 - 5
• Week 9: 8 - 5
• Week 8: 6.5 - 6.5
• Week 7: 8.5 - 6.5
• Week 6: 8 - 7
• Week 5: 8 - 6
• Week 4: 7 - 8
• Week 3: 9 - 7
• Week 2: 11 - 5

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Recap Week 16:

Summary:

• Outcome model: 10 - 6
• Ensemble model: 9 - 7
• Expected value: 11.057
• Running total: 137 - 87 (61%)
• Surprises:
• Eagles beat Giants
• Browns beat Chargers
• Cardinals beat Seahawks
• Jaguars beat Titans

Lots of upsets, but overall, the model did fairly well.  No time now for commentary.  On to the final week of regular season games before the playoffs!
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 Week 16:

Merry Christmas! Last week was great!  Two more weeks to go before playoffs.  What does this week look like?

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

•  Bills vs. Dolphins
• My models agree on a Bills victory, but the Dolphins do have a better record and have been playing well recently.  The probability is at 51% with a PD of 3 and final score of 25-22, so the margins are small.  Dolphins are on the road, but I am slightly more inclined to go with them.
• Buccaneers vs. Saints
• Buccaneers to lose at 49.8%, with a PD of 1 and a final score of 29-26.  So the models disagree.  This is really too close to call.  Buccaneers play on the road, but have the better record.  I am inclined to go with the Buccaneers.
• Colts vs. Raiders
• The outcome model gives the game to the Raiders (56%) who play at home.  The PD is 0 and the final score is 26-26.  So the models predict a close (tied) game.  Going with the Raiders.
• Falcons vs. Panthers
• Falcons play on the road and are predicted to win at 72%, with a PD of 5, and a final score of 25-23.  So the models agree on a Falcons win.  They do have the better record, but the Panthers are showing life again.  Still inclined to go with the Falcons.
• Packers vs. Vikings
• Packers expected to win (70%), with a PD of -1 and a final score of 21-20.  So a little disagreement. Going with the Packers.
• Broncos vs. Chiefs
• This is a great matchup.  Chiefs are 10-4 and Broncos are 8-6.  All models agree on a Chiefs victory.  58%, PD of 2, final score 22-17.  Chiefs play at home.  Should be a good game.  Going with the Chiefs.

Lots of good divisional matchups this week.  Expected value this week is 11.057 correct predictions out of 16 games.  So hoping for between 11 and 12 correct, but given the above, I wouldn't be surprised with 10 correct.  Good luck!

Here are the predictions for Week 16:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Prob. Win	Pred. Team Win	Actual Team Win	Pred. Team PD	Actual Team PD	Pred. Team Score	Pred. Opp. Score	Actual Team Score	Actual Opp. Score	Ensemble Prediction Win
16	12/22/2016	Eagles		Giants	0.269	0	1	-5	5	20	25	24	19	0
16	12/22/2016	Giants	@	Eagles	0.731	1	0	5	-5	25	20	19	24	1
16	12/24/2016	49ers	@	Rams	0.323	0	1	-2	1	14	21	22	21	0
16	12/24/2016	Bears		Redskins	0.125	0	0	-7	-20	17	26	21	41	0
16	12/24/2016	Bengals	@	Texans	0.288	0	0	-1	-2	18	21	10	12	0
16	12/24/2016	Bills		Dolphins	0.51	1	0	3	-3	25	22	31	34	1
16	12/24/2016	Browns		Chargers	0.189	0	1	-3	3	18	21	20	17	0
16	12/24/2016	Buccaneers	@	Saints	0.498	0	0	1	-7	29	26	24	31	0.67
16	12/24/2016	Cardinals	@	Seahawks	0.186	0	1	-11	3	18	24	34	31	0
16	12/24/2016	Chargers	@	Browns	0.811	1	0	3	-3	21	18	17	20	1
16	12/24/2016	Colts	@	Raiders	0.431	0	0	0	-8	26	26	25	33	0.33
16	12/24/2016	Dolphins	@	Bills	0.49	0	1	-3	3	22	25	34	31	0
16	12/24/2016	Falcons	@	Panthers	0.723	1	1	5	17	25	23	33	16	1
16	12/24/2016	Jaguars		Titans	0.163	0	1	-7	21	20	25	38	17	0
16	12/24/2016	Jets	@	Patriots	0.12	0	0	-14	-38	15	29	3	41	0
16	12/24/2016	Packers		Vikings	0.703	1	1	-1	13	21	20	38	25	0.67
16	12/24/2016	Panthers		Falcons	0.277	0	0	-5	-17	23	25	16	33	0
16	12/24/2016	Patriots		Jets	0.88	1	1	14	38	29	15	41	3	1
16	12/24/2016	Raiders		Colts	0.569	1	1	0	8	26	26	33	25	0.67
16	12/24/2016	Rams		49ers	0.677	1	0	2	-1	21	14	21	22	1
16	12/24/2016	Redskins	@	Bears	0.875	1	1	7	20	26	17	41	21	1
16	12/24/2016	Saints		Buccaneers	0.502	1	1	-1	7	26	29	31	24	0.33
16	12/24/2016	Seahawks		Cardinals	0.814	1	0	11	-3	24	18	31	34	1
16	12/24/2016	Texans		Bengals	0.712	1	1	1	2	21	18	12	10	1
16	12/24/2016	Titans	@	Jaguars	0.837	1	0	7	-21	25	20	17	38	1
16	12/24/2016	Vikings	@	Packers	0.297	0	0	1	-13	20	21	25	38	0.33
16	12/25/2016	Broncos	@	Chiefs	0.416	0	0	-2	-23	17	22	10	33	0
16	12/25/2016	Chiefs		Broncos	0.584	1	1	2	23	22	17	33	10	1
16	12/25/2016	Ravens	@	Steelers	0.417	0	0	-6	-4	18	26	27	31	0
16	12/25/2016	Steelers		Ravens	0.583	1	1	6	4	26	18	31	27	1
16	12/26/2016	Cowboys		Lions	0.546	1	1	3	21	29	26	42	21	1
16	12/26/2016	Lions	@	Cowboys	0.454	0	0	-3	-21	26	29	21	42	0