2016 NFL Game Predictions: Week 9

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2016 Predictions:

• Week 8: 6.5 - 6.5
• Week 7: 8.5 - 6.5
• Week 6: 8 - 7
• Week 5: 8 - 6
• Week 4: 7 - 8
• Week 3: 9 - 7
• Week 2: 11 - 5

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Recap Week 9:

 8 - 5 for the outcome model. Same for the ensemble.  The expected value for outcomes was 8.091 so this was, for the first time, right on target.  The running total is now 66 - 51 (56%).  Any surprising results?

• Raiders beat the Broncos
• My model gave the Broncos a 53% chance of winning the game, so this is not surprising from my model's perspective.  It is more psychologically  surprising since the Broncos won the Super Bowl last year and the Raiders have been bad for so long.  But apparently, no longer.
• Ravens beat the Steelers
• This one was surprising.  My model favored the Steelers heavily.  The Steelers weren't able to put up any points until the 4th quarter, and the hole was just too deep to get out of.  Lots of bad plays by the Steelers, and it appears that they just beat themselves.

Overall, a good week for my predictions.  No real upsets and the results match the expectations.  Hopefully that can continue going forward.

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Week 9:

Due to illness, homework, and a transition to a new client in my work, this week was too busy before it began.  So apart from a little code cleanup, no changes have been made.  Which perhaps is fine as my previous changes haven't born much fruit.  Will this be the week when things begin to look up for my predictions, or will I continue to be stymied?  We shall see.  Good luck to all of us in Week 9!

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

• Lions vs. Vikings
• All of my models agree that the Lions will beat the Vikings.  I personally would have gone with the Vikings.  Even after adjusting some of the variables to see if that would make a difference, the Lions still come out on top.  So I guess we shall see.

Apart from that, all of the other predictions seem reasonable to me.  Here's hoping...

Here are the predictions for Week 9:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Prob. Win	Pred. Team Win	Actual Team Win	Pred. Team PD	Actual Team PD	Pred. Team Score	Pred. Opp. Score	Actual Team Score	Actual Opp. Score	Ensemble Prediction Win
9	11/3/2016	Buccaneers		Falcons	0.44	0	0	-4	-15	22	27	28	43	0
9	11/3/2016	Falcons	@	Buccaneers	0.56	1	1	4	15	27	22	43	28	1
9	11/6/2016	49ers		Saints	0.362	0	0	0	-18	21	26	23	41	0.17
9	11/6/2016	Broncos	@	Raiders	0.529	1	0	4	-10	27	22	20	30	1
9	11/6/2016	Browns		Cowboys	0.147	0	0	-7	-25	18	28	10	35	0
9	11/6/2016	Chargers		Titans	0.434	0	1	-1	8	23	23	43	35	0.17
9	11/6/2016	Chiefs		Jaguars	0.71	1	1	3	5	23	21	19	14	1
9	11/6/2016	Colts	@	Packers	0.452	0	1	1	5	25	25	31	26	0.5
9	11/6/2016	Cowboys	@	Browns	0.853	1	1	7	25	28	18	35	10	1
9	11/6/2016	Dolphins		Jets	0.482	0	1	-1	4	21	23	27	23	0
9	11/6/2016	Eagles	@	Giants	0.467	0	0	1	-5	22	22	23	28	0.5
9	11/6/2016	Giants		Eagles	0.533	1	1	-1	5	22	22	28	23	0.5
9	11/6/2016	Jaguars	@	Chiefs	0.29	0	0	-3	-5	21	23	14	19	0
9	11/6/2016	Jets	@	Dolphins	0.518	1	0	1	-4	23	21	23	27	1
9	11/6/2016	Lions	@	Vikings	0.562	1	1	3	6	25	22	22	16	1
9	11/6/2016	Packers		Colts	0.548	1	0	-1	-5	25	25	26	31	0.5
9	11/6/2016	Panthers	@	Rams	0.69	1	1	6	3	23	19	13	10	1
9	11/6/2016	Raiders		Broncos	0.471	0	1	-4	10	22	27	30	20	0
9	11/6/2016	Rams		Panthers	0.31	0	0	-6	-3	19	23	10	13	0
9	11/6/2016	Ravens		Steelers	0.274	0	1	-6	7	17	24	21	14	0
9	11/6/2016	Saints	@	49ers	0.638	1	1	0	18	26	21	41	23	0.83
9	11/6/2016	Steelers	@	Ravens	0.726	1	0	6	-7	24	17	14	21	1
9	11/6/2016	Titans	@	Chargers	0.566	1	0	1	-8	23	23	35	43	0.83
9	11/6/2016	Vikings		Lions	0.438	0	0	-3	-6	22	25	16	22	0
9	11/7/2016	Bills	@	Seahawks	0.342	0	0	-5	-6	22	26	25	31	0
9	11/7/2016	Seahawks		Bills	0.658	1	1	5	6	26	22	31	25	1