2016 NFL Game Predictions: Week 17

 

 Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2016 Predictions:

• Week 16: 10 - 6
• Week 15: 13 - 3
• Week 14: 11 -5
• Week 13: 8 - 7
• Week 12: 11 - 5 
• Week 11: 9 - 5
• Week 10: 9 - 5
• Week 9: 8 - 5
• Week 8: 6.5 - 6.5
• Week 7: 8.5 - 6.5
• Week 6: 8 - 7
• Week 5: 8 - 6
• Week 4: 7 - 8
• Week 3: 9 - 7
• Week 2: 11 - 5

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Recap Week 17:

Summary:

• Outcome model: 10 - 6
• Ensemble model: 10 - 6
• Expected value: 10.863
• Running total: 147 - 93 (61%)
• Surprises:
• Bengals beat Ravens
• Bengals played at home and looked good.  Ravens defense couldn't stop Bengals in first quarter, and the Bengals intercepted an end-zone pass late in the second quarter.  The hole from the first half was too much for the Ravens to overcome. 
• Jets beat the Bills
• Rex Ryan was recently fired from being the head coach of the Bills.  His former former team (Jets) were able to get going in the second quarter while his former team (Bills) couldn't get much going all game.  Bills missed a wide open would be touchdown in the second quarter.  10 points in the second, third, and fourth quarters for the Jets.  Bills had a couple turn overs and their QB didn't do too well.  More interceptions against the Bills, a punt that turned into a touchdown for the Jets, and in short, the Bills played terribly.
• Eagles beat the Cowboys
• Eagles played at home.  Tony Romo got to play at QB again and got a TD.  But he also had a couple interceptions.  The teams were tied at the half.  Cowboys offense couldn't get anything going under Sanchez at QB in the second half.  A blocked punt leading to another Eagles touchdown, and in short, the Eagles played really well while the Cowboy's backups couldn't keep up. 

The models performed as expected.  Now on to the playoffs!

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Week 17:

Final week before the playoffs!  Compared to my previous playoffs prediction, the current AFC picture looks the same except that the Broncos are out and the Dolphins are in.  For the NFC, the Redskins are out and the Packers are in, at least for the moment, and the seeding has changed a bit.  What can we expect this week?

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

•   Broncos vs. Raiders
• Broncos play at home and are predicted to lose (42%) with a PD of 0 and a final score of 22-23.  Raider's QB is out injured and they may want to rest other starters, so  I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos win this.
• Giants vs. Redskins
• Giants are in the playoffs, but Redskins are looking to get in too.  The Giants play on the road and are predicted to win at 50.7%, with a PD of 1 and a final score of 26-26.  This game can go either way, but I think the Redskins may come out and win it since they have more to gain in a win than the Giants do.
• Lions vs. Packers
• Both teams are currently in playoffs, but neither has it clinched.  Lions play at home and are predicted to win with 50.3%, a PD of 1, and a final score of 26-23.  So the models barely agree on a Lions victory.  I'll stick with the Lions, but it could go either way.

Lots of good divisional matchups this final week, with playoffs in the balance for several teams (Redskins, Buccaneers, Lions, and Packers).  Expected value this week is 10.863 correct predictions out of 16 games.  So hoping for between 10 and 11 correct.

Here are the predictions for Week 17:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Prob. Win	Pred. Team Win	Actual Team Win	Pred. Team PD	Actual Team PD	Pred. Team Score	Pred. Opp. Score	Actual Team Score	Actual Opp. Score	Ensemble Prediction Win
17	1/1/2017	49ers		Seahawks	0.17	0	0	-14	-2	11	27	23	25	0.00
17	1/1/2017	Bears	@	Vikings	0.296	0	0	-6	-28	16	21	10	38	0.00
17	1/1/2017	Bengals		Ravens	0.273	0	1	-1	17	20	18	27	10	0.33
17	1/1/2017	Bills	@	Jets	0.767	1	0	4	-20	22	18	10	30	1.00
17	1/1/2017	Broncos		Raiders	0.42	0	1	0	18	22	23	24	6	0.17
17	1/1/2017	Browns	@	Steelers	0.187	0	0	-10	-3	15	25	24	27	0.00
17	1/1/2017	Buccaneers		Panthers	0.705	1	1	4	1	26	24	17	16	1.00
17	1/1/2017	Cardinals	@	Rams	0.726	1	1	4	38	23	17	44	6	1.00
17	1/1/2017	Chargers		Chiefs	0.214	0	0	-10	-10	18	28	27	37	0.00
17	1/1/2017	Chiefs	@	Chargers	0.786	1	1	10	10	28	18	37	27	1.00
17	1/1/2017	Colts		Jaguars	0.769	1	1	8	4	25	17	24	20	1.00
17	1/1/2017	Cowboys	@	Eagles	0.762	1	0	9	-14	29	20	13	27	1.00
17	1/1/2017	Dolphins		Patriots	0.461	0	0	-10	-21	19	30	14	35	0.00
17	1/1/2017	Eagles		Cowboys	0.238	0	1	-9	14	20	29	27	13	0.00
17	1/1/2017	Falcons		Saints	0.6	1	1	3	6	28	26	38	32	1.00
17	1/1/2017	Giants	@	Redskins	0.507	1	1	1	9	26	26	19	10	0.83
17	1/1/2017	Jaguars	@	Colts	0.231	0	0	-8	-4	17	25	20	24	0.00
17	1/1/2017	Jets		Bills	0.233	0	1	-4	20	18	22	30	10	0.00
17	1/1/2017	Lions		Packers	0.503	1	0	1	-7	26	23	24	31	1.00
17	1/1/2017	Packers	@	Lions	0.497	0	1	-1	7	23	26	31	24	0.00
17	1/1/2017	Panthers	@	Buccaneers	0.295	0	0	-4	-1	24	26	16	17	0.00
17	1/1/2017	Patriots	@	Dolphins	0.539	1	1	10	21	30	19	35	14	1.00
17	1/1/2017	Raiders	@	Broncos	0.58	1	0	0	-18	23	22	6	24	0.83
17	1/1/2017	Rams		Cardinals	0.274	0	0	-4	-38	17	23	6	44	0.00
17	1/1/2017	Ravens	@	Bengals	0.727	1	0	1	-17	18	20	10	27	0.67
17	1/1/2017	Redskins		Giants	0.493	0	0	-1	-9	26	26	10	19	0.17
17	1/1/2017	Saints	@	Falcons	0.4	0	0	-3	-6	26	28	32	38	0.00
17	1/1/2017	Seahawks	@	49ers	0.83	1	1	14	2	27	11	25	23	1.00
17	1/1/2017	Steelers		Browns	0.813	1	1	10	3	25	15	27	24	1.00
17	1/1/2017	Texans	@	Titans	0.545	1	0	5	-7	26	18	17	24	1.00
17	1/1/2017	Titans		Texans	0.455	0	1	-5	7	18	26	24	17	0.00
17	1/1/2017	Vikings		Bears	0.704	1	1	6	28	21	16	38	10	1.00