2016 NFL Game Predictions: Playoffs, Superbowl, and Best Team (Week 14)

Here are my best predictions for who will get to the playoffs, win the Superbowl, and is the "best" team as of Week 14 with 4 more games to go for each team.

Get to the Playoffs

Totaling up the probabilities of wins and losses per team for the remainder of the season along with the previous actual wins and losses, we get the expected values of wins and losses per team for the entire season.   Here is the projection of teams that will get into the playoffs (by seed order):

• AFC: Patriots, Raiders, Steelers, Texans, Chiefs, Broncos
• NFC: Cowboys, Seahawks, Lions, Falcons, Giants, Redskins

So the order has changed slightly from the previous prediction two weeks ago, but it is largely the same.

Team	Remaining Predicted Wins	Remaining Predicted Losses	Previous Wins	Previous Losses	Total Wins	Total Losses	Conference	Division	Rank Conference
Patriots	2.441	1.559	10	2	12.441	3.559	AFC	East	1
Dolphins	2.181	1.819	7	5	9.181	6.819	AFC	East	7
Bills	2.414	1.586	6	6	8.414	7.586	AFC	East	9
Jets	1.682	2.318	3	9	4.682	11.318	AFC	East	14
Steelers	2.695	1.305	7	5	9.695	6.305	AFC	North	5
Ravens	2.245	1.755	7	5	9.245	6.755	AFC	North	6
Bengals	1.585	2.415	4.5	7.5	6.085	9.915	AFC	North	13
Browns	0.696	3.304	0	12	0.696	15.304	AFC	North	16
Texans	2.661	1.339	6	6	8.661	7.339	AFC	South	8
Colts	2.336	1.664	6	6	8.336	7.664	AFC	South	10
Titans	1.978	2.022	6	6	7.978	8.022	AFC	South	11
Jaguars	0.573	3.427	2	10	2.573	13.427	AFC	South	15
Raiders	2.205	1.795	10	2	12.205	3.795	AFC	West	2
Chiefs	2.418	1.582	9	3	11.418	4.582	AFC	West	3
Broncos	2.182	1.818	8	4	10.182	5.818	AFC	West	4
Chargers	1.917	2.083	5	7	6.917	9.083	AFC	West	12
Cowboys	2.596	1.404	11	1	13.596	2.404	NFC	East	1
Giants	2.067	1.933	8	4	10.067	5.933	NFC	East	4
Redskins	2.939	1.061	6.5	5.5	9.439	6.561	NFC	East	6
Eagles	1.094	2.906	5	7	6.094	9.906	NFC	East	12
Lions	2.434	1.566	8	4	10.434	5.566	NFC	North	3
Vikings	2.662	1.338	6	6	8.662	7.338	NFC	North	8
Packers	1.852	2.148	6	6	7.852	8.148	NFC	North	9
Bears	0.673	3.327	3	9	3.673	12.327	NFC	North	15
Falcons	2.745	1.255	7	5	9.745	6.255	NFC	South	5
Buccaneers	1.712	2.288	7	5	8.712	7.288	NFC	South	7
Saints	2.143	1.857	5	7	7.143	8.857	NFC	South	10
Panthers	1.518	2.482	4	8	5.518	10.482	NFC	South	13
Seahawks	3.237	0.763	8.5	3.5	11.737	4.263	NFC	West	2
Cardinals	1.814	2.186	5	6	6.814	8.186	NFC	West	11
Rams	1.446	2.554	4	8	5.446	10.554	NFC	West	14
49ers	0.859	3.141	1	11	1.859	14.141	NFC	West	16

 

Win the Superbowl 

So who will win the Superbowl, assuming the above prediction and seed order is correct?  Here it is again:

• AFC: Patriots, Raiders, Steelers, Texans, Chiefs, Broncos
• NFC: Cowboys, Seahawks, Lions, Falcons, Giants, Redskins

I predicted the outcome of each matchup in the playoffs on the way to the Superbowl.  If the predicted team to win always won (which of course won't happen), then the playoffs would play out in the following way (I include the likelihood of winning for the victorious team):

Wildcard Round:

AFC:

Steelers (3) vs. Broncos (6) -> Broncos (6)  (0.642)
Texans (4) vs. Chiefs (5) -> Chiefs (5) (0.639)

NFC:

Lions (3) vs. Redskins (6) -> Redskins (6) (0.504)
Falcons (4) vs. Giants (5) -> Giants (5) (0.537)

Divisional Round:

AFC:

Patriots (1) vs. Broncos (6) -> Broncos (6)  (0.538)
Raiders (2) vs. Chiefs (5) -> Chiefs (5) (0.511)

NFC:

Cowboys (1) vs. Redskins (6) -> Cowboys (1) (0.575)
Seahawks (2) vs. Giants (5) -> Seahawks (2) (0.558)

Conference Championships:

AFC:

Chiefs (5) vs. Broncos (6) -> Chiefs (5)  (0.512)

NFC:

Cowboys (1)  vs. Seahawks (2) -> Cowboys (1)  (0.547)

Superbowl:

Chiefs (5)  vs. Cowboys (1) ->Cowboys (1) (0.522)


Wow!  Predicting wildcard team victories in both conferences.  The AFC West and the NFC East are really good this year.  In the AFC, predicting the wildcards to upset the Patriots and Raiders!  In the NFC, no real surprise: Cowboys and Seahawks go into the conference championships.  The Chiefs win the AFC and the Cowboys win the NFC, with the Cowboys going on to take the Superbowl! 

So the Cowboys are my favorite team to win the Superbowl at this point.

 

Best Team

Which team is the best at this point?  I use "best" in the sense that, according to my model, the team that is "best" would have the most wins in a tournament in which every team in the NFL played every other team in the NFL. There are 32 games total for each team (and playing yourself is a win).

If we go by the expected value of wins by summing up probabilities, the Cowboys, Seahawks, Chiefs, Broncos, and Patriots are the best (in that order).  The worst are the Jaguars, Browns, 49ers, Bears, and Rams (in that order).

Rank	Team	Total Wins
1	Cowboys	21.835
2	Seahawks	21.707
3	Chiefs	21.706
4	Broncos	21.437
5	Patriots	21.353
6	Redskins	20.558
7	Raiders	19.783
8	Lions	19.326
9	Giants	18.765
10	Steelers	18.425
11	Dolphins	18.305
12	Texans	17.963
13	Ravens	17.898
14	Falcons	17.884
15	Colts	17.531
16	Bills	17.43
17	Saints	17.189
18	Titans	16.588
19	Cardinals	15.88
20	Vikings	15.737
21	Buccaneers	15.22
22	Packers	14.803
23	Chargers	14.669
24	Panthers	13.604
25	Jets	13.22
26	Eagles	12.883
27	Bengals	11.9
28	Rams	11.493
29	Bears	7.284
30	49ers	7.15
31	Browns	6.621
32	Jaguars	5.853

If we go by the expected total number of wins (all or nothing), then the Cowboys, Chiefs, Broncos, Seahawks, and Raiders are the top 5 best.  The worst are the Jaguars, Bears, Browns, 49ers, and Rams.

Rank	Team	Total Wins
1	Cowboys	32
2	Chiefs	31
3	Broncos	30
4	Seahawks	29
5	Raiders	28
6	Patriots	27
7	Redskins	26
8	Lions	25
9	Giants	24
10	Dolphins	23
11	Steelers	22
12	Texans	20
12	Ravens	20
12	Falcons	20
15	Colts	18
16	Bills	17
17	Saints	16
18	Titans	15
19	Cardinals	14
20	Vikings	13
21	Packers	12
22	Buccaneers	11
23	Chargers	10
24	Panthers	9
25	Eagles	8
26	Jets	7
27	Bengals	6
28	Rams	5
29	49ers	4
30	Browns	3
31	Bears	2
32	Jaguars	1

 Conclusion

It is amazing what a difference a year makes.  Last year, the Bengals, Panthers, and Cardinals were among the top best teams.  And at the bottom?  The Redskins and Giants.  Some teams have stayed at the top (Patriots, Seahawks) and some have stayed at the bottom (Rams, Jaguars), but there has been a considerable shuffling of team ranks.  This is what makes the NFL so much fun to watch, game after game, year after year: anyone can win.

The Cowboys are the favorite to win the Superbowl and they are also the "best"!  Chiefs are second best (by total number of games won) and are expected to go to the Superbowl.  And my team, the Seahawks, are 2nd or 4th best, and should make it to the NFC championship.

I'll update in a few weeks with any changes, but for now, this is my best bet for who will get to the playoffs, win the Superbowl, and finish the season as the "best" team.