Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2016 Predictions:
- Week 13: 8 - 7
- Week 12: 11 - 5
- Week 11: 9 - 5
- Week 10: 9 - 5
- Week 9: 8 - 5
- Week 8: 6.5 - 6.5
- Week 7: 8.5 - 6.5
- Week 6: 8 - 7
- Week 5: 8 - 6
- Week 4: 7 - 8
- Week 3: 9 - 7
- Week 2: 11 - 5
_________________________________________________________________________________
Recap Week 14:
Summary:
Recap Week 14:
Summary:
- Outcome model: 11 - 5
- Ensemble model: 11.5 - 4.5
- Expected value: 10.652
- Running total: 114 - 78 (59%)
- Surprises:
- Titans beat Broncos
- Quick Titans TD, Broncos fumble, Titans FG, Titans FG. Then the Broncos get a TD in 4th quarter. But then another Broncos fumble. Looks like the Broncos just couldn't get the offense going soon enough.
- Giants beat Cowboys
- Cowboys had several opportunities but couldn't get points off of them. Cowboys led for most of the game, but had a long interception in the end of the 3rd quarter that eventually led to a long Giants TD. A fumble late in the 4th quarter stopped another Cowboy's drive. Looks more like the Cowboys beat themselves.
- Packers beat Seahawks
- Worst game ever. Seahawks were pathetic. I don't want to talk about it. Ridiculous.
Overall, a great week for my predictions. A terrible week for the Seahawks. Looking forward to next week!
_________________________________________________________________________________
Week 14:
No changes this week. Wrapping up final projects and tests in school, changing clients at work, and preparing for Christmas are keeping me busy. Maybe next week ;)
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- Chiefs vs. Raiders
- All models agree: Chiefs victory. Raiders are 10-2 and Chiefs are 9-3. Chiefs are playing at home. Outcome model is 50.7%, but the other models are more confident, predicting a PD of 5 and a final score of 28-24. Going with the Chiefs.
- Buccaneers vs. Saints
- All models agree on a Buccaneers win. But the outcome model, even out to three decimal places, still says 0.500. So essentially a predicted tie. PD is predicted to be 2, with final score 26-25. Buccaneers have been playing pretty well, so I am inclined to stick with them.
- Cardinals vs. Dolphins
- Dolphins predicted to win (64%), by 3 points, with a final score of 19 - 22. So the models are conflicted. Dolphins play at home and are 7-5, while the Cardinals are 5-6. I think I'd go with the Dolphins.
- Chargers vs. Panthers
- Chargers predicted to beat Panthers?? Yep. 59% outcome, but with a 0 PD and final score of 20-23. So the models disagree again. Panthers are 4-8 and Chargers are 5-7, and Chargers are in a much harder division. Chargers play on the road, but I am still inclined to go with them.
Expected value this week is 10.652 correct predictions out of 16 games. So hoping for between 10 and 11 correct. Packers play Seahawks, so a fun and historical matchup for those of us in Seattle. The models agree much more this week than last week, and the predictions have wider margins on average, so I am more hopeful for a good outcome. Good luck!
Here are the predictions for Week 14:
Week
|
Date
|
Team
|
Home Away
|
Opponent
|
Prob. Win
|
Pred. Team Win
|
Actual Team Win
|
Pred. Team PD
|
Actual Team PD
|
Pred. Team Score
|
Pred. Opp. Score
|
Actual Team Score
|
Actual Opp. Score
|
Ensemble Prediction
Win
|
14
|
12/8/2016
|
Chiefs
|
Raiders
|
0.507
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
8
|
28
|
24
|
21
|
13
|
1
| |
14
|
12/8/2016
|
Raiders
|
@
|
Chiefs
|
0.493
|
0
|
0
|
-5
|
-8
|
24
|
28
|
13
|
21
|
0
|
14
|
12/11/2016
|
49ers
|
Jets
|
0.328
|
0
|
0
|
-4
|
-6
|
15
|
19
|
17
|
23
|
0
| |
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Bears
|
@
|
Lions
|
0.221
|
0
|
0
|
-12
|
-3
|
15
|
29
|
17
|
20
|
0
|
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Bengals
|
@
|
Browns
|
0.822
|
1
|
1
|
6
|
13
|
21
|
16
|
23
|
10
|
1
|
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Bills
|
Steelers
|
0.451
|
0
|
0
|
-5
|
-7
|
21
|
26
|
20
|
27
|
0
| |
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Broncos
|
@
|
Titans
|
0.616
|
1
|
0
|
4
|
-3
|
24
|
18
|
10
|
13
|
1
|
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Browns
|
Bengals
|
0.178
|
0
|
0
|
-6
|
-13
|
16
|
21
|
10
|
23
|
0
| |
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Buccaneers
|
Saints
|
0.5
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
5
|
26
|
25
|
16
|
11
|
1
| |
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Cardinals
|
@
|
Dolphins
|
0.351
|
0
|
0
|
-3
|
-3
|
22
|
19
|
23
|
26
|
0.33
|
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Chargers
|
@
|
Panthers
|
0.597
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
-12
|
20
|
23
|
16
|
28
|
0.5
|
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Colts
|
Texans
|
0.535
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
-5
|
23
|
22
|
17
|
22
|
1
| |
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Cowboys
|
@
|
Giants
|
0.594
|
1
|
0
|
6
|
-3
|
31
|
20
|
7
|
10
|
1
|
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Dolphins
|
Cardinals
|
0.649
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
3
|
19
|
22
|
26
|
23
|
0.67
| |
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Eagles
|
Redskins
|
0.216
|
0
|
0
|
-3
|
-5
|
21
|
24
|
22
|
27
|
0
| |
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Falcons
|
@
|
Rams
|
0.75
|
1
|
1
|
9
|
28
|
24
|
18
|
42
|
14
|
1
|
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Giants
|
Cowboys
|
0.406
|
0
|
1
|
-6
|
3
|
20
|
31
|
10
|
7
|
0
| |
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Jaguars
|
Vikings
|
0.114
|
0
|
0
|
-11
|
-9
|
14
|
23
|
16
|
25
|
0
| |
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Jets
|
@
|
49ers
|
0.672
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
6
|
19
|
15
|
23
|
17
|
1
|
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Lions
|
Bears
|
0.779
|
1
|
1
|
12
|
3
|
29
|
15
|
20
|
17
|
1
| |
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Packers
|
Seahawks
|
0.23
|
0
|
1
|
-9
|
28
|
19
|
24
|
38
|
10
|
0
| |
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Panthers
|
Chargers
|
0.403
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
12
|
23
|
20
|
28
|
16
|
0.5
| |
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Rams
|
Falcons
|
0.25
|
0
|
0
|
-9
|
-28
|
18
|
24
|
14
|
42
|
0
| |
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Redskins
|
@
|
Eagles
|
0.784
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
5
|
24
|
21
|
27
|
22
|
1
|
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Saints
|
@
|
Buccaneers
|
0.5
|
0
|
0
|
-2
|
-5
|
25
|
26
|
11
|
16
|
0
|
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Seahawks
|
@
|
Packers
|
0.77
|
1
|
0
|
9
|
-28
|
24
|
19
|
10
|
38
|
1
|
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Steelers
|
@
|
Bills
|
0.549
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
7
|
26
|
21
|
27
|
20
|
1
|
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Texans
|
@
|
Colts
|
0.465
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
5
|
22
|
23
|
22
|
17
|
0
|
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Titans
|
Broncos
|
0.384
|
0
|
1
|
-4
|
3
|
18
|
24
|
13
|
10
|
0
| |
14
|
12/11/2016
|
Vikings
|
@
|
Jaguars
|
0.886
|
1
|
1
|
11
|
9
|
23
|
14
|
25
|
16
|
1
|
14
|
12/12/2016
|
Patriots
|
Ravens
|
0.642
|
1
|
1
|
8
|
7
|
24
|
18
|
30
|
23
|
1
| |
14
|
12/12/2016
|
Ravens
|
@
|
Patriots
|
0.358
|
0
|
0
|
-8
|
-7
|
18
|
24
|
23
|
30
|
0
|
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