Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2016 Predictions:
- Week 12: 11 - 5
- Week 11: 9 - 5
- Week 10: 9 - 5
- Week 9: 8 - 5
- Week 8: 6.5 - 6.5
- Week 7: 8.5 - 6.5
- Week 6: 8 - 7
- Week 5: 8 - 6
- Week 4: 7 - 8
- Week 3: 9 - 7
- Week 2: 11 - 5
_________________________________________________________________________________
Recap Week 13:
Summary
So my personal leanings were mostly justified. Maybe next year I should track those as well. I knew my predictions were more bold than in previous weeks, and a lot of the close games didn't go my way. All things considered, it wasn't too bad. We'll try again next week.
_________________________________________________________________________________
Recap Week 13:
Summary
- Outcome model: 8 -7
- Ensemble model: 9 - 6
- Expected value: 9.688
- Running total: 103 - 73 (59%)
- Surprises:
- Bengals beat the Eagles
- Wow. The Bengals looked great! This game reminded me of recent years for the Bengals. Too bad they haven't been playing like this all season.
- Buccaneers beat the Chargers
- I was worried about this game (see below). It was going to be a close game. It looks like the Chargers led most of the game, lost the lead in the 3rd quarter, regained it, but lost it again in the 4th quarter.
- Cardinals beat the Redskins
- All three models agreed on a Redskins win and by quite a margin. Looks like the Redskins had a hard time getting into a rhythm. They had several missed key plays, interceptions, fumbles that allowed the Cardinals to stay with them. The lead went back and forth, but at the end of the game, the Cardinals had the lead.
- Steelers beat the Giants
- I suspected this one would go for the Steelers, and the ensemble predicted a Steeler's win. The outcome model just got it wrong this time.
- Packers beat the Texans
- All three models agreed on a Texan's win. My personal inclinations were justified as the Packers did win.
So my personal leanings were mostly justified. Maybe next year I should track those as well. I knew my predictions were more bold than in previous weeks, and a lot of the close games didn't go my way. All things considered, it wasn't too bad. We'll try again next week.
_________________________________________________________________________________
Week 13:
Five more weeks to go. The only major change was using adjusted R^2 instead of R^2 for score difference and score final models. Basically, this penalizes the model for increasing the number of variables. Since adding any variable ought to improve the model (although it may not generalize well), this keeps the models as simple as possible while making sure only the most predictive variables stay in the model. With that adjustment, what can we expect in week 13?
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- 49ers vs. Bears
- Both teams are at the bottom of their divisions. Which team will not lose? My models favor the 49ers. The game is in Chicago and the 49ers have a worse record. Meh.
- Chargers vs. Buccaneers
- The outcome favors the Chargers (55%), who will lose by 3, with a final score of 24 to 24. Should be a close game, although after last weeks performance against the Seahawks, I'm inclined to go with the Buccaneers. Maybe that says more about me than anything else.
- Chiefs vs. Falcons
- All models choose the Chiefs, although the Falcons play at home. This should be a close matchup. Going with the Chiefs.
- Dolphin vs. Ravens
- Dolphins play on the road, but the outcome model gives them the win at 57%. The other models predict ties. I could go either way.
- Giants vs. Steelers
- Steelers play at home, but my outcome picks the Giants at 58%. The other models disagree, saying the Steelers will win by 2, 26-24. I'm personally inclined to go with the Steelers.
- Lions vs. Saints
- Lions predicted to win with 55%, but lose by 2, with a final score of 29 - 25. Lions play on the road. Not sure what to say about this.
- Packers vs. Texans
- Packers play at home, but all of my models pick the Texans with pretty wide margins. The Packers looked really good last week while the Texans did not. I would personally pick the Packers on this one, but that may be more due to my past impressions of the Packers.
Expected value this week is 9.688 correct predictions out of 15 games. So hoping for between 9 and 10 correct. There are lots of close games though, and I am predicting lots of road wins. So it is a bit more bold than in past weeks. We shall see. Good luck!
Here are the predictions for Week 13:
|
Week
|
Date
|
Team
|
Home Away
|
Opponent
|
Prob. Win
|
Pred. Team Win
|
Actual Team Win
|
Pred. Team PD
|
Actual Team PD
|
Pred. Team
Score
|
Pred. Opp.
Score
|
Actual Team
Score
|
Actual Opp.
Score
|
Ensemble
Prediction Win
|
13
|
12/1/2016
|
Cowboys
|
@
|
Vikings
|
0.66
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
25
|
20
|
17
|
15
|
0.83
|
13
|
12/1/2016
|
Vikings
|
Cowboys
|
0.34
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
-2
|
20
|
25
|
15
|
17
|
0.17
| |
13
|
12/4/2016
|
49ers
|
@
|
Bears
|
0.587
|
1
|
0
|
4
|
-20
|
16
|
15
|
6
|
26
|
1
|
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Bears
|
49ers
|
0.413
|
0
|
1
|
-4
|
20
|
15
|
16
|
26
|
6
|
0
| |
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Bengals
|
Eagles
|
0.389
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
18
|
21
|
20
|
32
|
14
|
0.33
| |
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Bills
|
@
|
Raiders
|
0.451
|
0
|
0
|
-2
|
-14
|
26
|
28
|
24
|
38
|
0
|
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Broncos
|
@
|
Jaguars
|
0.889
|
1
|
1
|
13
|
10
|
26
|
15
|
20
|
10
|
1
|
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Buccaneers
|
@
|
Chargers
|
0.442
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
7
|
24
|
24
|
28
|
21
|
0.5
|
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Cardinals
|
Redskins
|
0.254
|
0
|
1
|
-7
|
8
|
20
|
25
|
31
|
23
|
0
| |
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Chargers
|
Buccaneers
|
0.558
|
1
|
0
|
-3
|
-7
|
24
|
24
|
21
|
28
|
0.5
| |
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Chiefs
|
@
|
Falcons
|
0.581
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
23
|
18
|
29
|
28
|
1
|
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Dolphins
|
@
|
Ravens
|
0.574
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
-32
|
21
|
21
|
6
|
38
|
0.67
|
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Eagles
|
@
|
Bengals
|
0.611
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
-18
|
20
|
21
|
14
|
32
|
0.67
|
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Falcons
|
Chiefs
|
0.419
|
0
|
0
|
-1
|
-1
|
18
|
23
|
28
|
29
|
0
| |
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Giants
|
@
|
Steelers
|
0.582
|
1
|
0
|
-2
|
-10
|
24
|
26
|
14
|
24
|
0.33
|
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Jaguars
|
Broncos
|
0.111
|
0
|
0
|
-13
|
-10
|
15
|
26
|
10
|
20
|
0
| |
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Lions
|
@
|
Saints
|
0.546
|
1
|
1
|
-2
|
15
|
29
|
25
|
28
|
13
|
0.67
|
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Packers
|
Texans
|
0.281
|
0
|
1
|
-4
|
8
|
19
|
25
|
21
|
13
|
0
| |
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Panthers
|
@
|
Seahawks
|
0.282
|
0
|
0
|
-6
|
-33
|
21
|
25
|
7
|
40
|
0
|
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Patriots
|
Rams
|
0.782
|
1
|
1
|
10
|
16
|
28
|
16
|
26
|
10
|
1
| |
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Raiders
|
Bills
|
0.549
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
14
|
28
|
26
|
38
|
24
|
1
| |
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Rams
|
@
|
Patriots
|
0.218
|
0
|
0
|
-10
|
-16
|
16
|
28
|
10
|
26
|
0
|
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Ravens
|
Dolphins
|
0.426
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
32
|
21
|
21
|
38
|
6
|
0.33
| |
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Redskins
|
@
|
Cardinals
|
0.746
|
1
|
0
|
7
|
-8
|
25
|
20
|
23
|
31
|
1
|
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Saints
|
Lions
|
0.454
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
-15
|
25
|
29
|
13
|
28
|
0.33
| |
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Seahawks
|
Panthers
|
0.718
|
1
|
1
|
6
|
33
|
25
|
21
|
40
|
7
|
1
| |
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Steelers
|
Giants
|
0.418
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
10
|
26
|
24
|
24
|
14
|
0.67
| |
13
|
12/4/2016
|
Texans
|
@
|
Packers
|
0.719
|
1
|
0
|
4
|
-8
|
25
|
19
|
13
|
21
|
1
|
13
|
12/5/2016
|
Colts
|
@
|
Jets
|
0.586
|
1
|
1
|
-2
|
31
|
22
|
19
|
41
|
10
|
0.67
|
13
|
12/5/2016
|
Jets
|
Colts
|
0.414
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
-31
|
19
|
22
|
10
|
41
|
0.33
|
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