2016 NFL Game Predictions: Week 12

 

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2016 Predictions:

• Week 11: 9 - 5
• Week 10: 9 - 5
• Week 9: 8 - 5
• Week 8: 6.5 - 6.5
• Week 7: 8.5 - 6.5
• Week 6: 8 - 7
• Week 5: 8 - 6
• Week 4: 7 - 8
• Week 3: 9 - 7
• Week 2: 11 - 5

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Recap Week 12:

• 11 - 5 for the outcome model. 
• 11 - 5 for the ensemble. 
• The expected value for outcomes was 10.785 
• The running total is now 95 - 66 (59%). 
• Surprises?
• Buccaneers beat the Seahawks
• As a Seahawks fan, this game was painful to watch.  The Seahawks looked terrible. Several interceptions, a nonexistent offensive line, and two quick touchdowns at the beginning of the game by the Buccaneers put the Bucs on top.  Hopefully this humbling experience prevents future losses due to the expectation of an easy win.
• Chargers beat the Texans
• The Texans have been playing well and the Chargers are, well, the Chargers.  Looks like the Texans started well, but an interception led to a touchdown in the first half for the Chargers.  The Chargers were able to get a touchdown in the second half and another interception, while the Texans could only get two field goals.

The Cowboys beat the Redskins.  Not surprising, but it could have gone either way.  Chiefs beat the Broncos, but that could gone either way (and it did a couple times at the end).  And Packers beat the Eagles, which again is not terribly surprising.  I think the Packers are better than they have been playing, so maybe they are coming alive again.

Overall, a great week for me.  On to week 13!

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 Week 12:

Happy Thanksgiving!  And you are right: no new updates.  Short holiday week, client transition, and final projects in school means I still haven't had time to do any updates.  But my models have been doing better recently, so hopefully that will continue even with my recent neglect.  I won't make any predictions about when I can update and improve my code and models.  But I will make another round of football predictions :)  Enjoy!

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

• Cowboys vs. Redskins
• All three models agree on a Redskins victory.  I don't know.  Cowboys are looking so good (9 -1) and I feel like this is their year.  And the Cowboys are playing at home. So I'd personally go with the Cowboys, even though my models say otherwise.
• Lions vs. Vikings
• My outcome model gives the game to the Lions, but the other two models predict ties.  Hard to know since the Vikings have been very inconsistent and the Lions haven't been the model of dependability either.  Lions play at home.  Both teams are 6 - 4.  I'm going with the Lions.
• Bengals vs. Ravens
• The outcome sides with the Ravens with a PD of 1, but the final score is predicted to be 21 - 18 Bengals win.  Another challenging game to predict.  Bengals have shown great promise, but are inconsistent (3 - 6 -1).  Ravens are similar (5 - 5).  I guess we shall see which teams show up to play.  Going with the outcome model: Ravens victory.
• Cardinals vs. Falcons
• Falcons (6-4) are playing at home and predicted to win in the outcome.  But Cardinals (4-5-1) have 1 PD.  Yet Falcons predicted to win 25 - 24 final score.  Both teams are inconsistent, but Falcons are at home.  Going with a Falcons victory.
• Panthers vs. Raiders
• Outcome says Raiders (8-2), PD says Raiders win by 1, and the final score will be 25 to 25.  Raiders are looking good, and Panthers (4-6), although pretty pathetic earlier this season, are showing signs of life.  Should be a great game if the Panther's come to play.  Going with the Raiders.

So the only game I'd personally go against my models on is the Cowboys vs. Redskins game.  Expected value of probabilities is 10.785 correct predictions, so hoping for between 10 and 11 correct this time (out of 16 games).  Good luck in week 12!

Here are the predictions for Week 12:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Prob. Win	Pred. Team Win	Actual Team Win	Pred. Team PD	Actual Team PD	Pred. Team Score	Pred. Opp. Score	Actual Team Score	Actual Opp. Score	Ensemble Prediction Win
12	11/24/2016	Colts		Steelers	0.443	0	0	-6	-21	22	24	7	28	0.00
12	11/24/2016	Cowboys		Redskins	0.474	0	1	-4	5	24	28	31	26	0.00
12	11/24/2016	Lions		Vikings	0.617	1	1	0	3	22	22	16	13	0.67
12	11/24/2016	Redskins	@	Cowboys	0.526	1	0	4	-5	28	24	26	31	1.00
12	11/24/2016	Steelers	@	Colts	0.557	1	1	6	21	24	22	28	7	1.00
12	11/24/2016	Vikings	@	Lions	0.383	0	0	0	-3	22	22	13	16	0.33
12	11/27/2016	49ers	@	Dolphins	0.188	0	0	-4	-7	20	23	24	31	0.00
12	11/27/2016	Bears		Titans	0.131	0	0	-9	-6	20	22	21	27	0.00
12	11/27/2016	Bengals	@	Ravens	0.362	0	0	-1	-5	21	18	14	19	0.33
12	11/27/2016	Bills		Jaguars	0.787	1	1	5	7	26	18	28	21	1.00
12	11/27/2016	Broncos		Chiefs	0.521	1	0	3	-3	25	24	27	30	1.00
12	11/27/2016	Browns		Giants	0.107	0	0	-9	-14	18	23	13	27	0.00
12	11/27/2016	Buccaneers		Seahawks	0.284	0	1	-6	9	21	27	14	5	0.00
12	11/27/2016	Cardinals	@	Falcons	0.438	0	0	1	-19	24	25	19	38	0.33
12	11/27/2016	Chargers	@	Texans	0.258	0	1	-5	8	21	23	21	13	0.00
12	11/27/2016	Chiefs	@	Broncos	0.479	0	1	-3	3	24	25	30	27	0.00
12	11/27/2016	Dolphins		49ers	0.812	1	1	4	7	23	20	31	24	1.00
12	11/27/2016	Falcons		Cardinals	0.562	1	1	-1	19	25	24	38	19	0.67
12	11/27/2016	Giants	@	Browns	0.893	1	1	9	14	23	18	27	13	1.00
12	11/27/2016	Jaguars	@	Bills	0.213	0	0	-5	-7	18	26	21	28	0.00
12	11/27/2016	Jets		Patriots	0.37	0	0	-4	-5	22	27	17	22	0.00
12	11/27/2016	Panthers	@	Raiders	0.308	0	0	-1	-3	25	25	32	35	0.17
12	11/27/2016	Patriots	@	Jets	0.63	1	1	4	5	27	22	22	17	1.00
12	11/27/2016	Raiders		Panthers	0.692	1	1	1	3	25	25	35	32	0.83
12	11/27/2016	Rams	@	Saints	0.398	0	0	-3	-28	21	27	21	49	0.00
12	11/27/2016	Ravens		Bengals	0.638	1	1	1	5	18	21	19	14	0.67
12	11/27/2016	Saints		Rams	0.602	1	1	3	28	27	21	49	21	1.00
12	11/27/2016	Seahawks	@	Buccaneers	0.716	1	0	6	-9	27	21	5	14	1.00
12	11/27/2016	Texans		Chargers	0.742	1	0	5	-8	23	21	13	21	1.00
12	11/27/2016	Titans	@	Bears	0.869	1	1	9	6	22	20	27	21	1.00
12	11/28/2016	Eagles		Packers	0.621	1	0	1	-14	21	22	13	27	0.67
12	11/28/2016	Packers	@	Eagles	0.379	0	1	-1	14	22	21	27	13	0.33