2016 NFL Game Predictions: Week 10

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous 2016 Predictions:

• Week 9: 8 - 5
• Week 8: 6.5 - 6.5
• Week 7: 8.5 - 6.5
• Week 6: 8 - 7
• Week 5: 8 - 6
• Week 4: 7 - 8
• Week 3: 9 - 7
• Week 2: 11 - 5

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Recap Week 10:

9 - 5 for the outcome model. 9.5 - 4.5 for the ensemble.  The expected value for outcomes was 8.956. Another good week where my models are performing as expected. The running total is now 75 -56 (57%).  Lot's of really close games this week that could have gone either way.  Any surprising results?

• Rams beat the Jets
• My model gave the Jets a 67% chance of beat the Rams, but they lost.  The Rams continue to be unpredictable.
• Titans beat the Packers
• My model gave the Packers a 59% chance of beating the Titans, but they got blown out.  The Packers continue to struggle and thwart expectations.

Overall, this week was a solid week.  So many games could have gone either way, but I had predicted that they would be close.  And most other games that weren't predicted to be close tended to go towards the team I predicted.  So I am pleased.

Keep it going.
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Week 10:

Another busy week due to illnesses, work, and homework.  Where does the time go?  The data is updated, but everything else remains the same.  Maybe next week I can get some coding updates done, but I won't hold my breath.  Last week was much better for my predictions, so hopefully I can keep that going forward. 

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

• Chiefs vs. Panthers
• All three models agree: the Chiefs will beat the Panthers.  I think this is the right call.
• Cowboys vs. Steelers
• My outcome gives the game to the Cowboys, while the PD model says the Cowboys will lose by 2, and the final score model says the Cowboys will win by 1.  The Cowboys are playing on the road.  It should be an exciting game.  I'll stick with the Cowboys, but I could go either way.
• Patriots vs. Seahawks
• This is the first predicted loss for the Seahawks my outcome model is making.  The outcome barely goes to the Patriots, while the PD favors the Seahawks by 1, and the final score predicts the Seahawks to win 26 - 24.  This is a road game for the Seahawks.  I think the Patriots will win this one.  As a Seahawks fan, I hope I am wrong.
• Redskins vs. Vikings
• All models agree: the Redskins will beat the Vikings.  The Redskins are at home and the Vikings haven't been playing well.  This is the right prediction.

Good luck in week 10! 

Here are the predictions for Week 10:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Prob. Win	Pred. Team Win	Actual Team Win	Pred. Team PD	Actual Team PD	Pred. Team Score	Pred. Opp. Score	Actual Team Score	Actual Opp. Score	Ensemble Prediction Win
10	11/10/2016	Browns	@	Ravens	0.179	0	0	-9	-21	16	25	7	28	0
10	11/10/2016	Ravens		Browns	0.821	1	1	9	21	25	16	28	7	1
10	11/13/2016	49ers	@	Cardinals	0.176	0	0	-6	-3	17	25	20	23	0
10	11/13/2016	Bears	@	Buccaneers	0.494	0	0	0	-26	21	19	10	36	0.5
10	11/13/2016	Broncos	@	Saints	0.578	1	1	4	2	27	26	25	23	1
10	11/13/2016	Buccaneers		Bears	0.506	1	1	0	26	19	21	36	10	0.5
10	11/13/2016	Cardinals		49ers	0.824	1	1	6	3	25	17	23	20	1
10	11/13/2016	Chargers		Dolphins	0.45	0	0	1	-7	22	24	24	31	0.33
10	11/13/2016	Chiefs	@	Panthers	0.653	1	1	1	3	25	22	20	17	1
10	11/13/2016	Cowboys	@	Steelers	0.576	1	1	-2	5	25	24	35	30	0.67
10	11/13/2016	Dolphins	@	Chargers	0.55	1	1	-1	7	24	22	31	24	0.67
10	11/13/2016	Eagles		Falcons	0.403	0	1	-5	9	17	26	24	15	0
10	11/13/2016	Falcons	@	Eagles	0.597	1	0	5	-9	26	17	15	24	1
10	11/13/2016	Jaguars		Texans	0.201	0	0	-8	-3	16	26	21	24	0
10	11/13/2016	Jets		Rams	0.674	1	0	2	-3	23	20	6	9	1
10	11/13/2016	Packers	@	Titans	0.588	1	0	4	-22	26	21	25	47	1
10	11/13/2016	Panthers		Chiefs	0.347	0	0	-1	-3	22	25	17	20	0
10	11/13/2016	Patriots		Seahawks	0.508	1	0	-1	-7	24	26	24	31	0.33
10	11/13/2016	Rams	@	Jets	0.326	0	1	-2	3	20	23	9	6	0
10	11/13/2016	Redskins		Vikings	0.687	1	1	4	6	23	20	26	20	1
10	11/13/2016	Saints		Broncos	0.422	0	0	-4	-2	26	27	23	25	0
10	11/13/2016	Seahawks	@	Patriots	0.492	0	1	1	7	26	24	31	24	0.67
10	11/13/2016	Steelers		Cowboys	0.424	0	0	2	-5	24	25	30	35	0.33
10	11/13/2016	Texans	@	Jaguars	0.799	1	1	8	3	26	16	24	21	1
10	11/13/2016	Titans		Packers	0.412	0	1	-4	22	21	26	47	25	0
10	11/13/2016	Vikings	@	Redskins	0.313	0	0	-4	-6	20	23	20	26	0
10	11/14/2016	Bengals	@	Giants	0.595	1	0	5	-1	23	21	20	21	1
10	11/14/2016	Giants		Bengals	0.405	0	1	-5	1	21	23	21	20	0