Wednesday, November 23, 2016

2016 NFL Game Predictions: Who Will Get to the Playoffs?

A friend asked about my playoff predictions.  So here is my best guess using the latest data and the outcome model that I use in my weekly predictions.   By totaling up the predicted wins/losses with previous wins/losses, I came up with the below projection of teams that will get into the playoffs (by seed order)

  • AFC: Raiders, Patriots, Texans, Steelers, Broncos, Dolphins
  • NFC: Cowboys, Seahawks, Falcons, Lions, Redskins, Giants/Vikings

 
Team
Remaining Predicted Wins
Remaining Predicted Losses
Previous Wins
Previous Losses
Total Wins
Total Losses
Conference
Division
Rank Conference
Patriots
5
1
8
2
13
3
AFC
East
2
Dolphins
5
1
6
4
11
5
AFC
East
5
Bills
4
2
5
5
9
7
AFC
East
7
Jets
2
4
3
7
5
11
AFC
East
13
Steelers
4
2
5
5
9
7
AFC
North
8
Ravens
3
3
5
5
8
8
AFC
North
9
Bengals
1
5
3.5
6.5
4.5
11.5
AFC
North
14
Browns
0
5
0
11
0
16
AFC
North
16
Texans
6
0
6
4
12
4
AFC
South
4
Titans
2
3
5
6
7
9
AFC
South
10
Colts
1
5
5
5
6
10
AFC
South
11
Jaguars
0
6
2
8
2
14
AFC
South
15
Raiders
6
0
8
2
14
2
AFC
West
1
Broncos
5
1
7
3
12
4
AFC
West
3
Chiefs
3
3
7
3
10
6
AFC
West
6
Chargers
1
5
4
6
5
11
AFC
West
12
Cowboys
5
1
9
1
14
2
NFC
East
1
Redskins
6
0
6.5
3.5
12.5
3.5
NFC
East
3
Giants
3
3
7
3
10
6
NFC
East
6
Eagles
2
4
5
5
7
9
NFC
East
9
Lions
5
1
6
4
11
5
NFC
North
5
Vikings
4
2
6
4
10
6
NFC
North
7
Packers
1
5
4
6
5
11
NFC
North
12
Bears
0
6
2
8
2
14
NFC
North
16
Falcons
5
1
6
4
11
5
NFC
South
4
Buccaneers
3
3
5
5
8
8
NFC
South
8
Saints
3
3
4
6
7
9
NFC
South
10
Panthers
1
5
4
6
5
11
NFC
South
13
Seahawks
6
0
7.5
2.5
13.5
2.5
NFC
West
2
Cardinals
1
5
4.5
5.5
5.5
10.5
NFC
West
11
Rams
1
5
4
6
5
11
NFC
West
14
49ers
1
5
1
9
2
14
NFC
West
15
 
 
But this would suggest that teams that are barely likely to lose every game will not win a single one, and teams that are barely likely to win every game will win each one, which are not reasonable assumptions.  So let's instead total up the probabilities of wins and losses per team for the remainder of the season to get the expected values of wins and losses per team.  That will give us this picture, which is going to be more accurate because it is relying on the probability of win/loss:
 
  • AFC: Patriots, Raiders, Texans, Steelers, Broncos, Chiefs
  • NFC: Cowboys, Seahawks, Falcons, Lions, Redskins, Giants
 
 
So the Dolphins are out and the Chiefs are in for the AFC.  For the NFC, the results stay the same but the Vikings lose out to the Giants.
 
Team
Remaining Predicted Wins
Remaining Predicted Losses
Previous Wins
Previous Losses
Total Wins
Total Losses
Conference
Division
Rank Conference
Patriots
3.815
2.185
8
2
11.815
4.185
AFC
East
1
Dolphins
3.906
2.094
6
4
9.906
6.094
AFC
East
6
Bills
3.78
2.22
5
5
8.78
7.22
AFC
East
7
Jets
2.389
3.611
3
7
5.389
10.611
AFC
East
14
Steelers
3.498
2.502
5
5
8.498
7.502
AFC
North
8
Ravens
2.989
3.011
5
5
7.989
8.011
AFC
North
9
Bengals
2.448
3.552
3.5
6.5
5.948
10.052
AFC
North
13
Browns
0.54
4.46
0
11
0.54
15.46
AFC
North
16
Texans
4.335
1.665
6
4
10.335
5.665
AFC
South
5
Colts
2.911
3.089
5
5
7.911
8.089
AFC
South
10
Titans
2.866
2.134
5
6
7.866
8.134
AFC
South
11
Jaguars
1.169
4.831
2
8
3.169
12.831
AFC
South
15
Raiders
3.707
2.293
8
2
11.707
4.293
AFC
West
2
Broncos
3.593
2.407
7
3
10.593
5.407
AFC
West
3
Chiefs
3.342
2.658
7
3
10.342
5.658
AFC
West
4
Chargers
2.625
3.375
4
6
6.625
9.375
AFC
West
12
Cowboys
3.473
2.527
9
1
12.473
3.527
NFC
East
1
Redskins
4.397
1.603
6.5
3.5
10.897
5.103
NFC
East
3
Giants
3.671
2.329
7
3
10.671
5.329
NFC
East
4
Eagles
2.432
3.568
5
5
7.432
8.568
NFC
East
9
Lions
3.858
2.142
6
4
9.858
6.142
NFC
North
6
Vikings
3.805
2.195
6
4
9.805
6.195
NFC
North
7
Packers
1.829
4.171
4
6
5.829
10.171
NFC
North
13
Bears
1.049
4.951
2
8
3.049
12.951
NFC
North
15
Falcons
3.976
2.024
6
4
9.976
6.024
NFC
South
5
Buccaneers
2.861
3.139
5
5
7.861
8.139
NFC
South
8
Saints
2.974
3.026
4
6
6.974
9.026
NFC
South
10
Panthers
1.772
4.228
4
6
5.772
10.228
NFC
South
14
Seahawks
4.733
1.267
7.5
2.5
12.233
3.767
NFC
West
2
Cardinals
2.301
3.699
4.5
5.5
6.801
9.199
NFC
West
11
Rams
2.212
3.788
4
6
6.212
9.788
NFC
West
12
49ers
1.744
4.256
1
9
2.744
13.256
NFC
West
16
 


 

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