Welcome! I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores. My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data. I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't. See below for latest updates. Enjoy!
Previous 2016 Predictions:
- Week 10: 9 - 5
- Week 9: 8 - 5
- Week 8: 6.5 - 6.5
- Week 7: 8.5 - 6.5
- Week 6: 8 - 7
- Week 5: 8 - 6
- Week 4: 7 - 8
- Week 3: 9 - 7
- Week 2: 11 - 5
_________________________________________________________________________________
Recap Week 11:
- 9 - 5 for the outcome model.
- 10 - 4 for the ensemble.
- The expected value for outcomes was 9.735.
- The running total is now 84 - 61 (58%).
- Surprises?
- Buccaneers beat Chiefs
- Chiefs played at home and I gave them a 79% chance of winning. Based on the highlights, the crucial play looks like a Buccaneers interception in the end zone which cost the Chiefs decisive points. Otherwise, it looked like a back and forth game.
Happy Thanksgiving!
_________________________________________________________________________________
Week 11:
I still haven't made any updates. The busy rush to finish projects before the holidays begin hit this week. I may have some time next week, but again, don't hold your breath. Last week's predictions were satisfactory so I am hoping for more of the same. The model probabilities sum up to 9.735, so I hope for 9 to 10 correct predictions. What is coming up this week?
Oddities and Bold Predictions:
- Panthers vs. Saints
- My outcome predicts a Saints win, while my PD and score final models predict ties. Panthers play at home, so it shouldn't be easy for the Saints. I expect a close game, but I'll still go with the Saints.
- Bengals vs. Bills
- This is essentially a predicted tie. Bengals are barely predicted to win (50.7%), with a PD of 0 and Bills to beat the Bengals 22 to 21. Bengals play at home so maybe that will give them a slight edge. Not sure who I would pick personally.
- Cardinals vs. Vikings
- All models agree on a Cardinal's win. Vikings have a slightly better record and are playing at home. Still not sure what to make of either team as neither has been consistent. I guess I'll go with the Cardinals.
- Raiders vs. Texans
- My outcome model barely predicts the Texans to win (50.5%), but gives the Raiders 1 PD and a final score of 26 - 23. So essentially another predicted tie or too close to call. Raiders are playing at home, and given that they have the better record, I would probably personally predict them for the outcome as well. We shall see.
Good luck in week 11!
Here are the predictions for Week 11:
|
Week
|
Date
|
Team
|
Home Away
|
Opponent
|
Prob. Win
|
Pred. Team Win
|
Actual Team Win
|
Pred. Team PD
|
Actual Team PD
|
Pred. Team
Score
|
Pred. Opp.
Score
|
Actual Team
Score
|
Actual Opp.
Score
|
Ensemble
Prediction Win
|
11
|
11/17/2016
|
Panthers
|
Saints
|
0.426
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
20
|
0.33
| |
11
|
11/17/2016
|
Saints
|
@
|
Panthers
|
0.574
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
-3
|
24
|
24
|
20
|
23
|
0.67
|
11
|
11/20/2016
|
49ers
|
Patriots
|
0.107
|
0
|
0
|
-10
|
-13
|
16
|
25
|
17
|
30
|
0
| |
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Bears
|
@
|
Giants
|
0.17
|
0
|
0
|
-4
|
-6
|
19
|
25
|
16
|
22
|
0
|
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Bengals
|
Bills
|
0.507
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
-4
|
22
|
21
|
12
|
16
|
0.83
| |
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Bills
|
@
|
Bengals
|
0.493
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
4
|
21
|
22
|
16
|
12
|
0.17
|
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Browns
|
Steelers
|
0.158
|
0
|
0
|
-9
|
-15
|
17
|
23
|
9
|
24
|
0
| |
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Buccaneers
|
@
|
Chiefs
|
0.207
|
0
|
1
|
-10
|
2
|
19
|
26
|
19
|
17
|
0
|
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Cardinals
|
@
|
Vikings
|
0.711
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
-6
|
23
|
19
|
24
|
30
|
1
|
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Chiefs
|
Buccaneers
|
0.793
|
1
|
0
|
10
|
-2
|
26
|
19
|
17
|
19
|
1
| |
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Colts
|
Titans
|
0.528
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
7
|
25
|
23
|
24
|
17
|
1
| |
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Cowboys
|
Ravens
|
0.603
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
10
|
25
|
22
|
27
|
17
|
1
| |
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Dolphins
|
@
|
Rams
|
0.605
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
4
|
24
|
22
|
14
|
10
|
1
|
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Eagles
|
@
|
Seahawks
|
0.273
|
0
|
0
|
-5
|
-11
|
19
|
26
|
15
|
26
|
0
|
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Giants
|
Bears
|
0.83
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
6
|
25
|
19
|
22
|
16
|
1
| |
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Jaguars
|
@
|
Lions
|
0.204
|
0
|
0
|
-9
|
-7
|
19
|
28
|
19
|
26
|
0
|
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Lions
|
Jaguars
|
0.796
|
1
|
1
|
9
|
7
|
28
|
19
|
26
|
19
|
1
| |
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Packers
|
@
|
Redskins
|
0.179
|
0
|
0
|
-4
|
-18
|
20
|
31
|
24
|
42
|
0
|
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Patriots
|
@
|
49ers
|
0.893
|
1
|
1
|
10
|
13
|
25
|
16
|
30
|
17
|
1
|
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Rams
|
Dolphins
|
0.395
|
0
|
0
|
-2
|
-4
|
22
|
24
|
10
|
14
|
0
| |
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Ravens
|
@
|
Cowboys
|
0.397
|
0
|
0
|
-3
|
-10
|
22
|
25
|
17
|
27
|
0
|
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Redskins
|
Packers
|
0.821
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
18
|
31
|
20
|
42
|
24
|
1
| |
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Seahawks
|
Eagles
|
0.727
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
11
|
26
|
19
|
26
|
15
|
1
| |
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Steelers
|
@
|
Browns
|
0.842
|
1
|
1
|
9
|
15
|
23
|
17
|
24
|
9
|
1
|
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Titans
|
@
|
Colts
|
0.472
|
0
|
0
|
-2
|
-7
|
23
|
25
|
17
|
24
|
0
|
11
|
11/20/2016
|
Vikings
|
Cardinals
|
0.289
|
0
|
1
|
-3
|
6
|
19
|
23
|
30
|
24
|
0
| |
11
|
11/21/2016
|
Raiders
|
Texans
|
0.495
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
7
|
26
|
23
|
27
|
20
|
0.67
| |
11
|
11/21/2016
|
Texans
|
@
|
Raiders
|
0.505
|
1
|
0
|
-1
|
-7
|
23
|
26
|
20
|
27
|
0.33
|
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