2017 NFL Game Predictions: Division

 Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

• Week 16, 17, Initial Playoffs, Initial Best Team

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I couldn't resist.  I have previously posted on predictions for week 16, week 17, the playoffs, and the "best" team of the year.  But I haven't updated my model with the latest data since week 16, and obviously, things have changed a little.  So here are the latest predictions.

Division Week:

I had predicted the Rams to beat the Falcons, the Jaguars to beat the Bills, the Titans to beat the Chiefs, and the Panthers to beat the Saints.  So I was 2-2 on a three-week-old data.  What does the latest data and model predict for the division round?

• Eagles vs. Falcons
• Eagles win divisional round.  Not a surprise there, and not a change from previously.
• Patriots vs. Titans
• Patriots win.  No surprise there either.  I had them previously winning the divisional round as well.
• Jaguars vs. Steelers
• Jaguars lose!  I originally had them going all the way, winning the Superbowl, AND claiming the title of best team of 2017.  But their performance the past couple weeks hasn't been good.  With new data, the model predicts a Steeler's victory with a probability swing of 3.6%, enough to go from a Jaguars victory to a Jaguars loss.
• Vikings vs. Saints
• Vikings win.  This is the same as previously predicted.  The Vikings have increased their probability of victory by 1.2%.

So only one outcome has changed, but it is a big one: I no longer favor the Jaguars to win the Superbowl, much less win their next playoff game.

Week	Date	Team	HomeAway	Opponent	ProbabilityWin	PredictedTeamWin
Division	1/13/2018	Eagles		Falcons	0.551	1
Division	1/13/2018	Falcons	@	Eagles	0.449	0
Division	1/13/2018	Patriots		Titans	0.66	1
Division	1/13/2018	Titans	@	Patriots	0.34	0
Division	1/14/2018	Jaguars	@	Steelers	0.487	0
Division	1/14/2018	Saints	@	Vikings	0.474	0
Division	1/14/2018	Steelers		Jaguars	0.513	1
Division	1/14/2018	Vikings		Saints	0.526	1

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Division Week Results:

• Expected: 2.25 correct (so 2-2 after rounding)
• Actual: 3-1. 
• Jaguars beat the Steelers
• Comments:
• The Jaguars did it!  Oh me of little faith.  Excepting the Patriots/Titans game, each game could have easily gone the other way.  Really exciting to watch these games, which is what we should expect from the playoffs.
• Obviously the loss of the Steelers impacts my predictions below.  See my next post for the latest predictions...

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So who do I favor now?

Division:

Patriots (1) vs. Titans (5) -> Patriots (1) (0.66)
Steelers (2) vs. Jaguars (3) -> Steelers (2) (0.513)
  

Eagles (1) vs. Falcons (6) -> Eagles (1) (0.551)
Vikings (2) vs. Saints (4) -> Vikings (2) (0.526)

Conference:
Patriots (1) vs. Steelers (2) -> Steelers (2) (0.517)
Eagles (1) vs. Vikings (2) -> Vikings (2) (0.509)

Superbowl:

Vikings (2) vs. Steelers (2) -> Steelers (2) (0.500)

I have a Steelers Superbowl victory, but BARELY.  Out to 3 decimal places the value is 0.5.  When looking at the unrounded prediction, it is 0.5001414, which is still basically a tie.

Best Team of 2017

So now who might be regarded as the best team?  If each team played every other team, who would come out on top?  The latest model suggests that if measured by total probability of wins, the Panthers, Patriots, and Rams take 1, 2, and 3. If measured by total games won, then the Panthers, Steelers, and Vikings take 1, 2, and 3.  When averaged across both ways of measuring, then the Panthers, Steelers, and Patriots take 1, 2, and 3.

If the Panthers were still in the playoffs, I would say the Panther get this claim this week.  But they lost, so this is rather ironic.  Rams are out too.  Based on my playoff predictions, I am inclined to give the title this week to the Steelers.  If they can win the Superbowl, then obviously this fits.  But even if they can beat the Patriots in the playoffs, this will be a great accomplishment.  Patriots and Vikings are still in contention for this title too.  Eagles have dropped down in both lists so I think their claim to this has greatly decreased.

The Browns can congratulate themselves on not being the "worst" team of 2017, despite going 0-16.

Total Probability:

Rank	Team	Expected Value
1	Panthers	23.824
2	Patriots	22.888
3	Rams	22.396
4	Steelers	22.224
5	Vikings	21.683
6	Jaguars	20.965
7	Chargers	20.417
8	Eagles	20.183
9	Saints	20.153
10	Bills	19.893
11	Falcons	19.891
12	Chiefs	19.652
13	49ers	19.601
14	Seahawks	19.371
15	Lions	18.677
16	Titans	18.597
17	Cardinals	17.94
18	Bengals	17.564
19	Ravens	17.396
20	Cowboys	15.942
21	Packers	14.717
22	Bears	13.323
23	Redskins	13.314
24	Dolphins	11.186
25	Jets	10.449
26	Broncos	9.822
27	Colts	8.769
28	Raiders	7.391
29	Texans	6.754
30	Buccaneers	6.474
31	Browns	5.516
32	Giants	5.028

Total Wins:

Rank	Team	Total Wins
1	Panthers	32
2	Steelers	31
3	Vikings	30
4	Rams	29
5	Patriots	28
6	Jaguars	27
7	Eagles	26
8	Chargers	25
9	Saints	24
10	49ers	23
11	Falcons	22
12	Bills	21
13	Chiefs	20
14	Seahawks	19
15	Lions	18
16	Titans	17
17	Cardinals	16
18	Bengals	15
19	Ravens	14
20	Cowboys	13
21	Packers	12
22	Redskins	11
23	Bears	10
24	Dolphins	9
25	Broncos	8
26	Jets	7
27	Colts	6
28	Raiders	5
29	Texans	4
30	Buccaneers	3
31	Browns	2
32	Giants	1

Average:

Rank	Team	AverageRank
1	Panthers	1
2	Steelers	3
3	Patriots	3.5
3	Rams	3.5
5	Vikings	4
6	Jaguars	6
7	Eagles	7.5
7	Chargers	7.5
9	Saints	9
10	Falcons	11
10	Bills	11
12	49ers	11.5
13	Chiefs	12.5
14	Seahawks	14
15	Lions	15
16	Titans	16
17	Cardinals	17
18	Bengals	18
19	Ravens	19
20	Cowboys	20
21	Packers	21
22	Redskins	22.5
22	Bears	22.5
24	Dolphins	24
25	Jets	25.5
25	Broncos	25.5
27	Colts	27
28	Raiders	28
29	Texans	29
30	Buccaneers	30
31	Browns	31
32	Giants	32

Conclusion

 All of this can change, and some of it surely will.  Good luck in Division week!