2017 NFL Game Predictions: Superbowl

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

• Playoffs: Conference Championships
• Playoffs: Division
• Week 16, 17, Initial Playoffs, Initial Best Team

 _________________________________________________________________________________

Superbowl:

Here we are.  The Patriots and the Eagles will face off in the Superbowl.  The Patriots are the best playoff team in recent history, and the Eagles were arguably the best team of the regular season, despite having lost their starting quarterback to injury.  Who will come out on top in this final game of the 2017 NFL season?

• Patriots vs. Eagles
• Patriots predicted to win against the Eagles, with a probability of 0.532.  Hard to argue with that.

Week	Date	Team	HomeAway	Opponent	ProbabilityWin	PredictedTeamWin
SuperBowl	2/4/2018	Eagles	@	Patriots	0.468	0
SuperBowl	2/4/2018	Patriots	@	Eagles	0.532	1

-----------------------
SuperBowl Recap:

• Actual: 0 - 1
• Eagles won!
• Comments:
• What a game.  Great SuperBowl.  It was close all the way through, both teams played very well, and several amazing plays.  Congrats to the Eagles.

-----------------------

Conclusion

Good luck in the Superbowl!  I'll see you afterwards for a season recap and final "best" team of the season assessment.