2017 NFL Game Predictions: Conference Championships

 Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

• Playoffs: Division
• Week 16, 17, Initial Playoffs, Initial Best Team

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Conference Championships:

Jaguars beat the Steelers, upsetting my latest prediction for the Steelers to win the Superbowl.  But I am pleased as I'd like to see the Jaguars go on.  But will they survive the Patriots?

• Patriots vs. Jaguars
• I originally had the Jaguars winning this game and going all the way to win the Superbowl.  Then I had the Jaguars losing to the Steelers, who then went to the Superbowl to win it.  This week, the prediction is that the Patriots beat the Jaguars.  We all knew the Patriots were going to win again, right?
• Eagles vs. Vikings
• This match-up is what I have predicted from the beginning, with the Vikings getting to the Superbowl.  This is still the prediction: Vikings will beat the Eagles.

Week	Date	Team	HomeAway	Opponent	ProbabilityWin	PredictedTeamWin
Conf. Champ.	1/21/2018	Eagles		Vikings	0.49	0
Conf. Champ.	1/21/2018	Jaguars	@	Patriots	0.476	0
Conf. Champ.	1/21/2018	Patriots		Jaguars	0.524	1
Conf. Champ.	1/21/2018	Vikings	@	Eagles	0.51	1

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 Conference Championships Recap:

• Actual: 1-1
• Comments:
• Patriots won.  After watching the highlights, it looks like the Jaguars offense just couldn't get it going in the second half, so the defense was on the field a long time against the Patriots offense.  Which with Tom Brady is tough to beat.
• Vikings lost badly.  Too many turnovers.
• So it will be a Patriots vs. Eagles Superbowl.  I am pleased that the Eagles made it to the Superbowl, especially since they lost Carson Wentz to injury at the end of the season and tied for the best regular season win-loss record.  Both the Patriots and the Eagles went 13-3 (so did the Vikings and Steelers).  Can the Eagles overcome the Patriots?

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So who will win the Superbowl?

Conference:
Patriots (1) vs. Jaguars (3) -> Patriots (1) (0.524)
Eagles (1) vs. Vikings (2) -> Vikings (2) (0.51)

Superbowl:

 Patriots (1) vs. Vikings (2) -> Patriots (1) (0.504)

The latest data and model predict that the Patriots will win the Superbowl.  Hard to argue with that given the playoff success of the Patriots.  But you never know...

Conclusion

Good luck in the Conference Championships!