2015 NFL Game Predictions: Week 8

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous predictions

• Week 4

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Recap of Week 8:

My most recent attempt wasn’t great.  My predictions went 8-6.  Let’s look at what happened:

·         49ers vs. Rams

o   Predicted: 49ers 64% likely to win, but they lost.

o   Other sites predicted a Ram’s victory.  I should have agreed.  49ers have been struggling and had the worst of the two records going into the game.  Kaepernick is getting benched and Vernon Davis has been traded, so things are looking really grim for the 49ers going forward.  No real injuries I see, so my prediction was just bad.  Especially since the 49ers got trounced.

·         Packers vs. Broncos

o   Predicted: 64% Packers likely to win, but they lost.

o   Other sites also favored the Packers.  Packers didn’t have any new major injuries.  Again, it looks like another missed prediction, although this time I was on the side of other predictions.  Unfortunately, the game wasn’t even close.

·         Falcons vs. Buccaneers

o   Predicted: 65% Falcons likely to win, but they lost.

o   This game went into overtime, and other sites thought the Falcons would win too, so I don’t feel too bad.  Falcons had a much stronger record and were playing at home.  I’ll call this one unlucky.

·         Lions vs. Chiefs

o   Predicted: 55% Lions likely to beat Chiefs, but they lost.

o   Other sites favored the Chiefs, but not by much.  Both teams had pretty bad records, but the Lions were worse.  Lions got destroyed 45 to 10.  Lions were a bit healthier than in previous games.  Another bad prediction on my part.

·         Jets vs. Raiders

o   Predicted: Jets 53% likely to win, but they lost.

o   Other sites favored the Jets, and they had a slightly better record going into the game.  Jets have a lot of injuries on their offense, including their QB.  Raiders look comparatively healthy, so perhaps this can help explain some of the error in prediction (my model does not yet account for injuries/starters).

·         Titans vs. Texans

o   Predicted: Titans 56% likely to win, but they lose.

o   Texans were favored to win by other sites and they had a slightly better record going into the game.  Texans look more injured than Titans.  So again, another bad call on my part.

I was in agreement with other sites on 3 of these 6 games.  It looks like injuries are partly making a difference, but not by much.  I think in the end, I need better data and a more accurate model as some of my predictions weren’t even close.  We’ll try again soon.

Week 8: Second Published Predictions (Win/Lose)

Below is the next round of predictions I was able to make.  I've been working on cleaning up the code, automating data pulls, creating new features, and making sure I wasn't using any information that was not known prior to the game in building my model.  Here are the predictions for week 8:

Week	Date	Team	HomeAway	Opponent	ProbabilityWin	PredictedTeamWin	ActualTeamWin
8	10/29/2015	Dolphins	@	Patriots	0.28	0	0
8	10/29/2015	Patriots		Dolphins	0.72	1	1
8	11/1/2015	49ers	@	Rams	0.64	1	0
8	11/1/2015	Bears		Vikings	0.31	0	0
8	11/1/2015	Bengals	@	Steelers	0.62	1	1
8	11/1/2015	Broncos		Packers	0.36	0	1
8	11/1/2015	Browns		Cardinals	0.34	0	0
8	11/1/2015	Buccaneers	@	Falcons	0.35	0	1
8	11/1/2015	Cardinals	@	Browns	0.66	1	1
8	11/1/2015	Chargers	@	Ravens	0.38	0	0
8	11/1/2015	Chiefs		Lions	0.45	0	1
8	11/1/2015	Cowboys		Seahawks	0.44	0	0
8	11/1/2015	Falcons		Buccaneers	0.65	1	0
8	11/1/2015	Giants	@	Saints	0.41	0	0
8	11/1/2015	Jets	@	Raiders	0.53	1	0
8	11/1/2015	Lions	@	Chiefs	0.55	1	0
8	11/1/2015	Packers	@	Broncos	0.64	1	0
8	11/1/2015	Raiders		Jets	0.47	0	1
8	11/1/2015	Rams		49ers	0.37	0	1
8	11/1/2015	Ravens		Chargers	0.62	1	1
8	11/1/2015	Saints		Giants	0.59	1	1
8	11/1/2015	Seahawks	@	Cowboys	0.56	1	1
8	11/1/2015	Steelers		Bengals	0.37	0	0
8	11/1/2015	Texans		Titans	0.44	0	1
8	11/1/2015	Titans	@	Texans	0.56	1	0
8	11/1/2015	Vikings	@	Bears	0.69	1	1
8	11/2/2015	Colts	@	Panthers	0.34	0	0
8	11/2/2015	Panthers		Colts	0.66	1	1

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