2015 NFL Game Predictions: Week 15

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous predictions:

Week 14
Week 13
Week 11
Week 8
Week 4

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Recap Week 15:

12-4!  Not bad.  The probabilities this week were a little more favorable for correct predictions.  With the probabilities as I estimated them, we have 11 (20.4%), 10 (20.2%), 12 (15.8%) and 9 (15.2%) correct prediction counts as most likely.  We have an expected value of 10.4 correct predictions, so things went better than expected.  Here is a graph of the distribution of outcomes:

Biggest upset (that I got wrong): Rams beat Buccaneers
Biggest surprise (that I got right): Steelers beat Broncos

Updated table of predictions and outcomes below.
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Week 15:

I have not made any major code changes to the model or to the data apart from updating the data with the most recent information.  So these predictions will be as good (or bad) as previous weeks.  Here is hoping for 10-6 correct predictions.  I hope to continue to update the model and data but I didn't get to it this week.  Maybe next week...

Here are the predictions for Week 15:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Prob. Win	Pred. Team Win	Actual Team Win	Pred. Team PD	Actual Team PD	Pred. Team Score	Pred. Opp. Score	Actual Team Score	Actual Opp. Score
15	12/17/2015	Buccaneers	@	Rams	0.668	1	0	3	-8	25	21	23	31
15	12/17/2015	Rams		Buccaneers	0.332	0	1	-3	8	21	25	31	23
15	12/19/2015	Cowboys		Jets	0.494	0	0	7	-3	22	18	16	19
15	12/19/2015	Jets	@	Cowboys	0.506	1	1	-7	3	18	22	19	16
15	12/20/2015	49ers		Bengals	0.21	0	0	-8	-10	16	24	14	24
15	12/20/2015	Bears	@	Vikings	0.391	0	0	-7	-21	19	25	17	38
15	12/20/2015	Bengals	@	49ers	0.79	1	1	8	10	24	16	24	14
15	12/20/2015	Bills	@	Redskins	0.734	1	0	8	-10	29	22	25	35
15	12/20/2015	Broncos	@	Steelers	0.365	0	0	-5	-7	19	24	27	34
15	12/20/2015	Browns	@	Seahawks	0.237	0	0	-8	-17	19	26	13	30
15	12/20/2015	Cardinals	@	Eagles	0.702	1	1	5	23	29	23	40	17
15	12/20/2015	Chargers		Dolphins	0.453	0	1	-2	16	23	24	30	14
15	12/20/2015	Chiefs	@	Ravens	0.531	1	1	3	20	23	20	34	14
15	12/20/2015	Colts		Texans	0.504	1	0	1	-6	23	24	10	16
15	12/20/2015	Dolphins	@	Chargers	0.547	1	0	2	-16	24	23	14	30
15	12/20/2015	Eagles		Cardinals	0.298	0	0	-5	-23	23	29	17	40
15	12/20/2015	Falcons	@	Jaguars	0.724	1	1	-1	6	23	19	23	17
15	12/20/2015	Giants		Panthers	0.261	0	0	-8	-3	20	29	35	38
15	12/20/2015	Jaguars		Falcons	0.276	0	0	-1	-6	19	23	17	23
15	12/20/2015	Packers	@	Raiders	0.621	1	1	7	10	26	21	30	20
15	12/20/2015	Panthers	@	Giants	0.739	1	1	8	3	29	20	38	35
15	12/20/2015	Patriots		Titans	0.777	1	1	10	17	28	18	33	16
15	12/20/2015	Raiders		Packers	0.379	0	0	-7	-10	21	26	20	30
15	12/20/2015	Ravens		Chiefs	0.469	0	0	-3	-20	20	23	14	34
15	12/20/2015	Redskins		Bills	0.266	0	1	-8	10	22	29	35	25
15	12/20/2015	Seahawks		Browns	0.763	1	1	8	17	26	19	30	13
15	12/20/2015	Steelers		Broncos	0.635	1	1	5	7	24	19	34	27
15	12/20/2015	Texans	@	Colts	0.496	0	1	1	6	24	23	16	10
15	12/20/2015	Titans	@	Patriots	0.223	0	0	-10	-17	18	28	16	33
15	12/20/2015	Vikings		Bears	0.609	1	1	7	21	25	19	38	17
15	12/21/2015	Lions	@	Saints	0.589	1	1	3	8	26	25	35	27
15	12/21/2015	Saints		Lions	0.411	0	0	-3	-8	25	26	27	35