2015 NFL Game Predictions: Week 13

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous predictions:

• Week 11
• Week 8
• Week 4

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Week 13: Recap
My predictions went 10-6 (63%).  Again, not great, but also not terrible.  Lot's of exciting games and upsets, and many were close calls.  Biggest upsets: Falcons and Patriots.  Biggest surprise?  Cowboys.  Good luck in week 14!
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Week 13: Fourth Published Predictions (Win/Lose)

Below is the next round of predictions I was able to make.  I continued to clean and automate my code, trying to gather new data and test its usefulness in my model.  I also tested different kinds of algorithms for classification.  I was using a logistic regression that was capping out at 68% accurate.  I also tried a decision tree (65%) and random forests (66%).  I then tried an SVM, and that got up to 81%!  I have yet to do thorough testing on it so I am a bit skeptical as overfitting is a concern.  Still, my predictions are consistent with the other models I used.  I will continue to do more testing.

What is odd about the below predictions?  The biggest oddity is the Cowboys/Redskins game.  My model predicts a Cowboys win (67%), even though they are playing away, have a worse record, and are missing QB Tony Romo.  Pro-football-reference.com gives the Redskins a 61% chance of winning. My model is probably off in this prediction, but I'd need to look into the details to figure out why that is. Other than that, the predictions seem reasonable.

Note: I included 3 decimal places in the probability to highlight the Seahawks/Vikings game.  That is as close as it gets.

Here are the predictions for week 13:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Probability Win	Predicted Team Win	Actual Team Win
13	12/3/2015	Lions		Packers	0.416	0	0
13	12/3/2015	Packers	@	Lions	0.584	1	1
13	12/6/2015	49ers	@	Bears	0.484	0	1
13	12/6/2015	Bears		49ers	0.516	1	0
13	12/6/2015	Bengals	@	Browns	0.766	1	1
13	12/6/2015	Bills		Texans	0.549	1	1
13	12/6/2015	Broncos	@	Chargers	0.639	1	1
13	12/6/2015	Browns		Bengals	0.234	0	0
13	12/6/2015	Buccaneers		Falcons	0.394	0	1
13	12/6/2015	Cardinals	@	Rams	0.781	1	1
13	12/6/2015	Chargers		Broncos	0.361	0	0
13	12/6/2015	Chiefs	@	Raiders	0.618	1	1
13	12/6/2015	Colts	@	Steelers	0.311	0	0
13	12/6/2015	Dolphins		Ravens	0.421	0	1
13	12/6/2015	Eagles	@	Patriots	0.371	0	1
13	12/6/2015	Falcons	@	Buccaneers	0.606	1	0
13	12/6/2015	Giants		Jets	0.539	1	0
13	12/6/2015	Jaguars	@	Titans	0.432	0	0
13	12/6/2015	Jets	@	Giants	0.461	0	1
13	12/6/2015	Panthers	@	Saints	0.789	1	1
13	12/6/2015	Patriots		Eagles	0.629	1	0
13	12/6/2015	Raiders		Chiefs	0.382	0	0
13	12/6/2015	Rams		Cardinals	0.219	0	0
13	12/6/2015	Ravens	@	Dolphins	0.579	1	0
13	12/6/2015	Saints		Panthers	0.211	0	0
13	12/6/2015	Seahawks	@	Vikings	0.499	0	1
13	12/6/2015	Steelers		Colts	0.689	1	1
13	12/6/2015	Texans	@	Bills	0.451	0	0
13	12/6/2015	Titans		Jaguars	0.568	1	1
13	12/6/2015	Vikings		Seahawks	0.501	1	0
13	12/7/2015	Cowboys	@	Redskins	0.673	1	1
13	12/7/2015	Redskins		Cowboys	0.327	0	0

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