2015 NFL Game Predictions: Week 11

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous predictions:

• Week 8
• Week 4

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Week 11: Recap

My predictions were 9-5 (actual results in below table).  That is 64% accurate.  Not great, but consistent with my model accuracy of 68% (if I had gone 10-4, then it would have been 71% accurate).  Any insights from what happened?

• Titans/Jaguars
• The game went back and forth, and the Titans were winning most of the time.  However, they gave up 10 points in the 4th quarter and didn't score at all. They couldn't finish.  A familiar theme for those of us in Seattle.
• Bengals/Cardinals
• It was going to be a close game anyway, and it was.  The lead went back and forth between the teams.  So it could have gone my way.  Unlucky.
• Eagles/Buccaneers
• Eagles got crushed by Buccaneers.  This was surprising.  The Eagles played badly - lots of punting, interceptions, and fumbling.  Not a good game for them, nor typical of their play.
• Falcons/Colts
• Another example of not being able to finish.  The Falcons didn't score in the 4th quarter and gave up 10 points instead.  Lots of punting and interceptions and a missed field goal.
• Raiders/Lions
• Once again.  The Raiders had the victory but lost it in the 4th quarter.  They gave up 9 points without scoring any in the 4th.  To be fair, they weren't winning most of the game anyway.  And it was predicted to be close.

The lesson seems to be that I need to get more information about how teams do in each quarter, and particularly, how they close out the game. Once again, I need better data, and better models, to improve the overall predictions.

Good luck in week 12!

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Week 11: Third Published Predictions (Win/Lose)

Below is the next round of predictions I was able to make.  I've been continuing to work on cleaning up the code, automating data pulls, and creating new features to use in the prediction.  So far, my model has topped out at 68% accurate (i.e., (TP + TN)/(TP+FP+TN+FN)).  While that may not sound great, other professional sports models for predicting the outcome of any particular game are about as accurate (see here for example).  So I am in good company.

Any oddities in the below predictions?  If we assume that the team with the better record will win, then the following teams are predicted to pull an upset: Titans, Texans, Cowboys, Ravens, and Packers.  Looking at pro-football-reference.com, my predictions disagree in the predicted outcome in the following games: Jaguars/Titans, Broncos/Bears, Vikings/Packers, and Cardinals/Bengals.  There are lot's of good matchups so it should be an exciting week!

Here are the predictions for week 11:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Probability Win	Predicted Team Win	Actual Team Win
11	11/19/2015	Jaguars		Titans	0.31	0	1
11	11/19/2015	Titans	@	Jaguars	0.69	1	0
11	11/22/2015	49ers	@	Seahawks	0.4	0	0
11	11/22/2015	Bears		Broncos	0.45	0	0
11	11/22/2015	Bengals	@	Cardinals	0.57	1	0
11	11/22/2015	Broncos	@	Bears	0.55	1	1
11	11/22/2015	Buccaneers	@	Eagles	0.4	0	1
11	11/22/2015	Cardinals		Bengals	0.43	0	1
11	11/22/2015	Chargers		Chiefs	0.46	0	0
11	11/22/2015	Chiefs	@	Chargers	0.54	1	1
11	11/22/2015	Colts	@	Falcons	0.3	0	1
11	11/22/2015	Cowboys	@	Dolphins	0.51	1	1
11	11/22/2015	Dolphins		Cowboys	0.49	0	0
11	11/22/2015	Eagles		Buccaneers	0.6	1	0
11	11/22/2015	Falcons		Colts	0.7	1	0
11	11/22/2015	Jets	@	Texans	0.43	0	0
11	11/22/2015	Lions		Raiders	0.43	0	1
11	11/22/2015	Packers	@	Vikings	0.56	1	1
11	11/22/2015	Panthers		Redskins	0.83	1	1
11	11/22/2015	Raiders	@	Lions	0.57	1	0
11	11/22/2015	Rams	@	Ravens	0.25	0	0
11	11/22/2015	Ravens		Rams	0.75	1	1
11	11/22/2015	Redskins	@	Panthers	0.17	0	0
11	11/22/2015	Seahawks		49ers	0.6	1	1
11	11/22/2015	Texans		Jets	0.57	1	1
11	11/22/2015	Vikings		Packers	0.44	0	0
11	11/23/2015	Bills	@	Patriots	0.25	0	0
11	11/23/2015	Patriots		Bills	0.75	1	1

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