2015 NFL Game Predictions: Week 16

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous predictions:

Week 15
Week 14
Week 13
Week 11
Week 8
Week 4

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Recap Week 16:

I got destroyed.  6-10.  If I can get lucky and do better than expected, I can also get unlucky and do much worse.  So many upsets this week as you already know: Panthers lost, Patriots lost, Seahawks lost, Steelers lost, and Bengals lost. The odds were already not as favorable with so many close games (expected 9.7 wins based on probabilities).  There was a 4.5% chance of getting 6 or fewer predictions correct, so if this were a hypothesis test, I'd reject the Null with 95% confidence and conclude that this was a statistically significant week.  That is, something is different about this week's games that makes them not quite fit with the distribution of games from which I built my model.

So what could be different?  Most of these teams were already in the playoffs, so perhaps some of the motivation is gone.  Only the Steelers are currently not in the playoffs.  The seeding is still up in the air for several teams, as well as home field advantage, but maybe this was not enough to keep these teams playing at the top of their game.  Combine that with too much holiday celebration and perhaps just enough of an edge was lost to allow these upsets to occur.

In any case, we'll try again next week.
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Week 16:

Happy Holidays!  Due to the busyness of the season, I have not made any major code changes to the model or to the data apart from updating the data with the most recent information.  Last week I went 12-4!  I do not expect the same level of success this week as there are a lot more close matchups.  There are lots of really important games this week in divisional and/or playoff deciding matchups, and previews of likely playoff matches.  So it should be a very exciting week.  Good luck in week 16!

Here are the predictions for Week 16:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Prob. Win	Pred. Team Win	Actual Team Win	Pred. Team PD	Actual Team PD	Pred. Team Score	Pred. Opp. Score	Actual Team Score	Actual Opp. Score
16	12/24/2015	Chargers	@	Raiders	0.512	1	0	-1	-3	22	24	20	23
16	12/24/2015	Raiders		Chargers	0.488	0	1	-1	3	24	22	23	20
16	12/26/2015	Eagles		Redskins	0.633	1	0	4	-14	30	25	24	38
16	12/26/2015	Redskins	@	Eagles	0.367	0	1	-4	14	25	30	38	24
16	12/27/2015	49ers	@	Lions	0.353	0	0	-8	-15	17	23	17	32
16	12/27/2015	Bears	@	Buccaneers	0.533	1	1	-2	5	23	25	26	21
16	12/27/2015	Bills		Cowboys	0.489	0	1	-1	10	22	23	16	6
16	12/27/2015	Browns	@	Chiefs	0.332	0	0	-6	-4	19	26	13	17
16	12/27/2015	Buccaneers		Bears	0.467	0	0	-2	-5	25	23	21	26
16	12/27/2015	Cardinals		Packers	0.485	0	1	-2	30	25	25	38	8
16	12/27/2015	Chiefs		Browns	0.668	1	1	6	4	26	19	17	13
16	12/27/2015	Colts	@	Dolphins	0.456	0	1	-3	6	20	23	18	12
16	12/27/2015	Cowboys	@	Bills	0.511	1	0	1	-10	23	22	6	16
16	12/27/2015	Dolphins		Colts	0.544	1	0	3	-6	23	20	12	18
16	12/27/2015	Falcons		Panthers	0.459	0	1	-8	7	17	24	20	13
16	12/27/2015	Giants	@	Vikings	0.324	0	0	-6	-32	20	28	17	49
16	12/27/2015	Jaguars	@	Saints	0.496	0	0	2	-11	23	23	27	38
16	12/27/2015	Jets		Patriots	0.33	0	1	-10	6	17	25	26	20
16	12/27/2015	Lions		49ers	0.647	1	1	8	15	23	17	32	17
16	12/27/2015	Packers	@	Cardinals	0.515	1	0	2	-30	25	25	8	38
16	12/27/2015	Panthers	@	Falcons	0.541	1	0	8	-7	24	17	13	20
16	12/27/2015	Patriots	@	Jets	0.67	1	0	10	-6	25	17	20	26
16	12/27/2015	Rams	@	Seahawks	0.21	0	1	-12	6	13	26	23	17
16	12/27/2015	Ravens		Steelers	0.305	0	1	-8	3	19	26	20	17
16	12/27/2015	Saints		Jaguars	0.504	1	1	-2	11	23	23	38	27
16	12/27/2015	Seahawks		Rams	0.79	1	0	12	-6	26	13	17	23
16	12/27/2015	Steelers	@	Ravens	0.695	1	0	8	-3	26	19	17	20
16	12/27/2015	Texans	@	Titans	0.668	1	1	9	28	25	15	34	6
16	12/27/2015	Titans		Texans	0.332	0	0	-9	-28	15	25	6	34
16	12/27/2015	Vikings		Giants	0.676	1	1	6	32	28	20	49	17
16	12/28/2015	Bengals	@	Broncos	0.66	1	0	3	-3	20	17	17	20
16	12/28/2015	Broncos		Bengals	0.34	0	1	-3	3	17	20	20	17