2016 NFL Game Predictions: Week 2

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

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Recap Week 2:

11-5!  Pretty good, eh?  Especially since when I simulate the outcomes using the probabilities from the model, the average comes out to 9.36 correct predictions, with 9 correct predictions being the most common.  So in a certain sense I got lucky.  A lot of the close games went my way. 

As I suspected, the Panthers won and the Broncos won, against my model predictions.  The biggest surprise?  According to my model, the Seahawks had an 88% chance of beating the Rams.  But as any Seattle fan knows, we ALWAYS struggle against the Rams.  And with Wilson hurt, we just couldn't pull it out this week. 

Overall, I am pleased with this first round of predictions.  A good start for me.  Let's keep going.

Updated outcomes below.

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Week 2:

Welcome back!  It's the beginning of a new NFL season.  With a week's worth of data available for the 2016 teams, we can start making predictions on the upcoming games.  I admit that I have not improved anything in the model since the end of last season as I have been busy working on other blogs and starting a MS program in Data Analytics, so we start where we left off.  The model currently has a training and test accuracy of about 65%, so we should get 10 or 11 games out of 16 correct on average.  As we only have one weeks worth of data so far, I wouldn't be surprised if the model underperforms in these first couple of weeks.  I do have some ideas for improvements that I hope to incorporate over the course of the season, so I hope I can improve that predictive accuracy as we go.  Enjoy!

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

-49ers are picked to beat the Panthers with 61% likelihood.  I doubt this will happen as the Panthers are a much stronger team.  The 49ers look good from week 1, but they were playing the Rams.  And the Panthers barely lost to the Broncos in a Superbowl recap.  So this is probably a bad pick: I'd go with the Panthers.
-Broncos are supposed to lose to the Colts at 49%.  So really the model thinks it is 50-50.  However, the Broncos played the Panthers last week, so with the two Superbowl teams playing against each other in week 1, both team's stats are likely not going to look as good in comparison to other teams.  But as they play other (weaker) teams, their stats will improve.  So I'd bet on the Broncos to win this one.  The predicted PD and Final Scores both support a Bronco's win, so there is disagreement in my models.

Here we go! Good luck in Week 2!

Here are the predictions for Week 2:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Prob. Win	Pred. Team Win	Actual Team Win	Pred. Team PD	Actual Team PD	Pred. Team Score	Pred. Opp. Score	Actual Team Score	Actual Opp. Score
2	9/15/2016	Bills		Jets	0.44	0	0	-1	-6	20	22	31	37
2	9/15/2016	Jets	@	Bills	0.56	1	1	1	6	22	20	37	31
2	9/18/2016	49ers	@	Panthers	0.608	1	0	0	-19	23	20	27	46
2	9/18/2016	Bengals	@	Steelers	0.313	0	0	-4	-8	28	31	16	24
2	9/18/2016	Broncos		Colts	0.487	0	1	3	14	30	25	34	20
2	9/18/2016	Browns		Ravens	0.33	0	0	-7	-5	17	21	20	25
2	9/18/2016	Buccaneers	@	Cardinals	0.488	0	0	-1	-33	24	25	7	40
2	9/18/2016	Cardinals		Buccaneers	0.512	1	1	1	33	25	24	40	7
2	9/18/2016	Chargers		Jaguars	0.529	1	1	1	24	25	25	38	14
2	9/18/2016	Chiefs	@	Texans	0.543	1	0	0	-7	26	24	12	19
2	9/18/2016	Colts	@	Broncos	0.513	1	0	-3	-14	25	30	20	34
2	9/18/2016	Cowboys	@	Redskins	0.501	1	1	0	4	25	28	27	23
2	9/18/2016	Dolphins	@	Patriots	0.449	0	0	-7	-7	18	24	24	31
2	9/18/2016	Falcons	@	Raiders	0.529	1	1	1	7	29	32	35	28
2	9/18/2016	Giants		Saints	0.522	1	1	2	3	29	28	16	13
2	9/18/2016	Jaguars	@	Chargers	0.471	0	0	-1	-24	25	25	14	38
2	9/18/2016	Lions		Titans	0.531	1	0	5	-1	27	22	15	16
2	9/18/2016	Packers	@	Vikings	0.496	0	0	-1	-3	21	23	14	17
2	9/18/2016	Panthers		49ers	0.392	0	1	0	19	20	23	46	27
2	9/18/2016	Patriots		Dolphins	0.551	1	1	7	7	24	18	31	24
2	9/18/2016	Raiders		Falcons	0.471	0	0	-1	-7	32	29	28	35
2	9/18/2016	Rams		Seahawks	0.119	0	1	-16	6	9	26	9	3
2	9/18/2016	Ravens	@	Browns	0.67	1	1	7	5	21	17	25	20
2	9/18/2016	Redskins		Cowboys	0.499	0	0	0	-4	28	25	23	27
2	9/18/2016	Saints	@	Giants	0.478	0	0	-2	-3	28	29	13	16
2	9/18/2016	Seahawks	@	Rams	0.881	1	0	16	-6	26	9	3	9
2	9/18/2016	Steelers		Bengals	0.687	1	1	4	8	31	28	24	16
2	9/18/2016	Texans		Chiefs	0.457	0	1	0	7	24	26	19	12
2	9/18/2016	Titans	@	Lions	0.469	0	1	-5	1	22	27	16	15
2	9/18/2016	Vikings		Packers	0.504	1	1	1	3	23	21	17	14
2	9/19/2016	Bears		Eagles	0.291	0	0	-6	-15	19	25	14	29
2	9/19/2016	Eagles	@	Bears	0.709	1	1	6	15	25	19	29	14