Again, I use "best" in the sense that, according to my models, the team that is "best" would have the most wins in a tournament in which every team in the NFL played every other team in the NFL. There are 32 games total for each team (and playing yourself is a win), so the team with the most wins out of 32 would be the "best" team. Note that my models assume that every player is healthy (i.e., no injuries).
In my previous analysis in week 14, the Cowboys, Seahawks, Chiefs, Broncos, and Patriots were the best (in that order) by expected value of wins when summing up probabilities. Each of these teams was expected to win 21.x games out of 32. By expected total number of wins (all or nothing), the Cowboys, Chiefs, Broncos, Seahawks, and Raiders were the top 5 best. The Patriots finished at number 6.
What has changed since then? Here are the final predictions of where each team would rank in a tournament of each team against every other team for the 2016 season:
Expected Value of Wins:
The Patriots are on top! They moved up to 24.5 games won out of 32. The Cowboys slide down to second at 23.9, while the Falcons take third at 22.8. The Raiders, Chiefs, and Seahawks follow these.
The worst? Browns finish last at 6.4 games out of 32. The Browns are followed by the 49ers (7.2), Jaguars (7.4), Rams (7.6), and Bears (8.2) as being the worst teams this year. Here are the full results:
Rank
|
Team
|
Expected Value
|
1
|
Patriots
|
24.544
|
2
|
Cowboys
|
23.926
|
3
|
Falcons
|
22.845
|
4
|
Raiders
|
22.799
|
5
|
Chiefs
|
22.729
|
6
|
Seahawks
|
22.281
|
7
|
Steelers
|
22.071
|
8
|
Giants
|
21.081
|
9
|
Lions
|
20.87
|
10
|
Dolphins
|
20.805
|
11
|
Packers
|
20.763
|
12
|
Texans
|
19.713
|
13
|
Titans
|
18.784
|
14
|
Redskins
|
18.438
|
15
|
Buccaneers
|
17.4
|
16
|
Colts
|
15.755
|
17
|
Ravens
|
15.566
|
18
|
Broncos
|
15.386
|
19
|
Cardinals
|
13.909
|
20
|
Saints
|
13.882
|
21
|
Vikings
|
13.881
|
22
|
Bills
|
13.386
|
23
|
Eagles
|
12.649
|
24
|
Bengals
|
11.664
|
25
|
Chargers
|
10.601
|
26
|
Jets
|
10.032
|
27
|
Panthers
|
9.274
|
28
|
Bears
|
8.242
|
29
|
Rams
|
7.628
|
30
|
Jaguars
|
7.437
|
31
|
49ers
|
7.237
|
32
|
Browns
|
6.422
|
Total Wins (All or Nothing):
With total wins, the Cowboys take the top slot as the only team predicted to beat the Patriots (52.2%) and to win all games. Second are the Patriots, followed by the Raiders, Chiefs, Falcons, and Seahawks. The worst are the Rams, followed by the Browns, Jaguars, 49ers, and Bears. Here are the full results:
Rank
|
Team
|
Total Wins
|
1
|
Cowboys
|
32
|
2
|
Patriots
|
31
|
3
|
Raiders
|
30
|
4
|
Chiefs
|
29
|
5
|
Falcons
|
28
|
6
|
Seahawks
|
27
|
7
|
Giants
|
26
|
8
|
Steelers
|
25
|
9
|
Dolphins
|
24
|
10
|
Lions
|
23
|
11
|
Packers
|
22
|
12
|
Texans
|
21
|
13
|
Titans
|
20
|
14
|
Redskins
|
19
|
15
|
Buccaneers
|
18
|
16
|
Ravens
|
16
|
16
|
Colts
|
16
|
16
|
Broncos
|
16
|
19
|
Cardinals
|
14
|
20
|
Saints
|
13
|
21
|
Vikings
|
12
|
22
|
Bills
|
11
|
23
|
Eagles
|
10
|
24
|
Bengals
|
9
|
25
|
Chargers
|
8
|
26
|
Panthers
|
7
|
27
|
Jets
|
6
|
28
|
Bears
|
5
|
29
|
49ers
|
4
|
30
|
Jaguars
|
3
|
31
|
Browns
|
2
|
32
|
Rams
|
1
|
Conclusion:
I think it is safe to say that this year, the "best" team won the SuperBowl. The only other contender for that title in my analysis was the Cowboys who finished second in expected value but first in total wins, trading spots with the Patriots. It's too bad we didn't see a Patriots vs. Cowboys showdown in the SuperBowl. But there is always next year...
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