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Welcome! In years past I have predicted NFL scores and outcomes through the season and into the playoffs and Superbowl. With work, school, and family life, this was not possible this year. However, I managed to scrap together a little time to run the code to see what the rest of the season looked like. With a few minor changes to the code, I was able to successfully run predictions for week 16, 17, the playoffs, Superbowl, and a "best" team prediction. Given that I may not have time to revisit this, I lay out the predictions for the rest of the season below.
Week 16:
Not having followed much of the NFL this year, I am not sure I can really comment on the below games. But from what little I know (a quick sanity check using win/loss comparisons), the below outcome predictions seem reasonable, although some of the probabilities strike me as a little strange.
Week
|
Date
|
Team
|
HomeAway
|
Opponent
|
ProbabilityWin
|
PredictedTeamWin
|
16
|
12/23/2017
|
Colts
|
@
|
Ravens
|
0.133
|
0
|
16
|
12/23/2017
|
Packers
|
Vikings
|
0.211
|
0
| |
16
|
12/23/2017
|
Ravens
|
Colts
|
0.867
|
1
| |
16
|
12/23/2017
|
Vikings
|
@
|
Packers
|
0.789
|
1
|
16
|
12/24/2017
|
49ers
|
Jaguars
|
0.406
|
0
| |
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Bears
|
Browns
|
0.727
|
1
| |
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Bengals
|
Lions
|
0.295
|
0
| |
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Bills
|
@
|
Patriots
|
0.371
|
0
|
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Broncos
|
@
|
Redskins
|
0.257
|
0
|
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Browns
|
@
|
Bears
|
0.273
|
0
|
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Buccaneers
|
@
|
Panthers
|
0.075
|
0
|
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Cardinals
|
Giants
|
0.866
|
1
| |
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Chargers
|
@
|
Jets
|
0.774
|
1
|
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Chiefs
|
Dolphins
|
0.628
|
1
| |
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Cowboys
|
Seahawks
|
0.399
|
0
| |
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Dolphins
|
@
|
Chiefs
|
0.372
|
0
|
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Falcons
|
@
|
Saints
|
0.447
|
0
|
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Giants
|
@
|
Cardinals
|
0.134
|
0
|
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Jaguars
|
@
|
49ers
|
0.594
|
1
|
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Jets
|
Chargers
|
0.226
|
0
| |
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Lions
|
@
|
Bengals
|
0.705
|
1
|
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Panthers
|
Buccaneers
|
0.925
|
1
| |
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Patriots
|
Bills
|
0.629
|
1
| |
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Rams
|
@
|
Titans
|
0.581
|
1
|
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Redskins
|
Broncos
|
0.743
|
1
| |
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Saints
|
Falcons
|
0.553
|
1
| |
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Seahawks
|
@
|
Cowboys
|
0.601
|
1
|
16
|
12/24/2017
|
Titans
|
Rams
|
0.419
|
0
| |
16
|
12/25/2017
|
Eagles
|
Raiders
|
0.813
|
1
| |
16
|
12/25/2017
|
Raiders
|
@
|
Eagles
|
0.187
|
0
|
16
|
12/25/2017
|
Steelers
|
@
|
Texans
|
0.948
|
1
|
16
|
12/25/2017
|
Texans
|
Steelers
|
0.052
|
0
|
Week 16 Results:
- Estimated: 11.743 (12) correct, so 4 incorrect
- Actual: 14 - 2
- Jaguars lost to the 49ers
- Bengals beat the Lions
- Comments
- Seahawks may actually make it! I have the Falcon's losing in week 17 and the Seahawks winning. If both happen, Seahawks make the wildcard spot!
- I have the Titans losing to the Jaguars, so they would go 8-8. Chargers will beat the Raiders, so they will go 9-7. Bills will beat the Dolphins so they will go 9-7. Since the Chargers beat the Bills earlier this season, I'd now pick the Chargers to get into the playoffs over the Bills.
- I'm a little shaken in my confidence in the Jaguars to be the team to win the Superbowl. The 49ers are looking really good though and are a different team with Jimmy Garoppolo, having won 4 in a row since he became the starter. So perhaps it is not the end of the world for my audacious predictions.
Week 17:
What about week 17? Again, hard to comment since I haven't been following closely. But the below again looks reasonable.
Week
|
Date
|
Team
|
HomeAway
|
Opponent
|
ProbabilityWin
|
PredictedTeamWin
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
49ers
|
@
|
Rams
|
0.416
|
0
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Bears
|
@
|
Vikings
|
0.233
|
0
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Bengals
|
@
|
Ravens
|
0.375
|
0
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Bills
|
@
|
Dolphins
|
0.652
|
1
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Broncos
|
Chiefs
|
0.129
|
0
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Browns
|
@
|
Steelers
|
0.072
|
0
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Buccaneers
|
Saints
|
0.089
|
0
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Cardinals
|
@
|
Seahawks
|
0.259
|
0
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Chargers
|
Raiders
|
0.817
|
1
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Chiefs
|
@
|
Broncos
|
0.871
|
1
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Colts
|
Texans
|
0.473
|
0
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Cowboys
|
@
|
Eagles
|
0.338
|
0
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Dolphins
|
Bills
|
0.348
|
0
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Eagles
|
Cowboys
|
0.662
|
1
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Falcons
|
Panthers
|
0.419
|
0
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Giants
|
Redskins
|
0.093
|
0
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Jaguars
|
@
|
Titans
|
0.591
|
1
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Jets
|
@
|
Patriots
|
0.101
|
0
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Lions
|
Packers
|
0.737
|
1
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Packers
|
@
|
Lions
|
0.263
|
0
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Panthers
|
@
|
Falcons
|
0.581
|
1
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Patriots
|
Jets
|
0.899
|
1
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Raiders
|
@
|
Chargers
|
0.183
|
0
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Rams
|
49ers
|
0.584
|
1
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Ravens
|
Bengals
|
0.625
|
1
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Redskins
|
@
|
Giants
|
0.907
|
1
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Saints
|
@
|
Buccaneers
|
0.911
|
1
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Seahawks
|
Cardinals
|
0.741
|
1
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Steelers
|
Browns
|
0.928
|
1
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Texans
|
@
|
Colts
|
0.527
|
1
|
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Titans
|
Jaguars
|
0.409
|
0
| |
17
|
12/31/2017
|
Vikings
|
Bears
|
0.767
|
1
|
|
Week 17 Results:
- Estimated: 11.8 (so expected 12 correct, 4 incorrect)
- Actual: 7-9
- Comments
- I really need to look at what happens when a team has secured a playoff spot and has nothing to gain by winning their last game. It makes sense for a team in this position to not make an effort to win the last game, to rest their players, avoid injuries, and prepare for the playoffs. Although I haven't watched the replays, I suspect this can help explain why the Eagles, Jaguars, Panthers, Rams, and Saints all lost. Maybe next year I can adjust my model to account for this factor.
- Falcons won and the Seahawks lost, so the Falcons made the playoffs after all. The missed field goal at the end of the game is, in a way, a summary of the Seahawks entire season: at times, greatness, but too often, a miss.
- In the AFC, the Ravens are out and the Titans are in the playoffs. Bills made it in over the Chargers. Lots of tie breaking rules at play here. Four teams tied at 9-7: Titans, Ravens, Chargers, and Bills. See here for how this tie breaking worked out.
- In the NFC, all of the teams made it that I thought would, although the Rams are seeded at 3 and the Saints are seeded at 4. Panthers, Saints, and Rams tied at 11-5. The Rams beat the Saints earlier in the season so they go ahead of the Saints, and the Saints beat the Panthers, so they go ahead of the Panthers.
- Playoff impact?
- Titans vs. Chiefs - my model picks the Titans to win and the Chief's to lose. Titan's will lose to Patriots, so that doesn't change.
- Rams vs. Falcons-Rams beat Falcons and then play Vikings but lose to Vikings, so the Vikings continue.
- Panthers vs. Saints - my model predicts a Panther's victory. Panthers play the Eagles and lose, so the Eagles go on.
- So while things are initially different, the ultimate outcome is not changed (based on my model from two weeks ago, which should probably be updated).
Playoffs and Superbowl
So what if the above is mostly correct? Who will get into the playoffs? My current predictions suggest the following by seed:
- AFC - Patriots (1), Steelers (2), Jaguars (3), Chiefs (4), Ravens (5), Bills (6)
- Patriots beat the Steelers, so in an expected tie in record, Patriots get the first seed.
- The Chiefs beat the Chargers twice, so in the case of a tie, they get the division.
- Ravens will likely go 10-6, so would have the top wildcard spot.
- The Bills lost to the Chargers, so if they tie, the Chargers would go in ahead of them. Neither of them has played the Titans. Bills have a slightly higher probability of winning, so I am giving them the 6th seed, although it could be the Chargers or Titans.
- NFC - Eagles (1), Vikings (2), Saints (3), Rams (4), Panthers (5), Falcons (6)
- Eagles will likely go 14-2 and get the top spot, with Vikings second.
- Saints beat the Panthers twice and I expect will go 12-4 so I gave them the third seed. I also expect the Panthers to go 12-4, but Saints would win in the tie break.
- Rams should win the West and get the 4 seed.
- Panthers then get the highest wildcard (5), and the Falcons get (6).
Sadly (at least for me), it looks like the Seahawks are out of the playoffs. But clearly, a lot can still change...
Suppose that the above playoff spot predictions are true. Then what happens? Using head to head predictions based on the season so far:
Team
|
Remaining Predicted Wins
|
Remaining Predicted Losses
|
Previous Wins
|
Previous Losses
|
Total Wins
|
Total Losses
|
Round Wins
|
Round Losses
|
Conference
|
Division
|
Rank Conference
|
Patriots
|
1.528
|
0.472
|
11
|
3
|
12.528
|
3.472
|
13
|
3
|
AFC
|
East
|
1
|
Steelers
|
1.876
|
0.124
|
11
|
3
|
12.876
|
3.124
|
13
|
3
|
AFC
|
North
|
2
|
Jaguars
|
1.185
|
0.815
|
10
|
4
|
11.185
|
4.815
|
11
|
5
|
AFC
|
South
|
3
|
Ravens
|
1.492
|
0.508
|
8
|
6
|
9.492
|
6.508
|
9
|
7
|
AFC
|
North
|
4
|
Chiefs
|
1.499
|
0.501
|
8
|
6
|
9.499
|
6.501
|
9
|
7
|
AFC
|
West
|
5
|
Bills
|
1.023
|
0.977
|
8
|
6
|
9.023
|
6.977
|
9
|
7
|
AFC
|
East
|
6
|
Titans
|
0.828
|
1.172
|
8
|
6
|
8.828
|
7.172
|
9
|
7
|
AFC
|
South
|
7
|
Chargers
|
1.591
|
0.409
|
7
|
7
|
8.591
|
7.409
|
9
|
7
|
AFC
|
West
|
8
|
Dolphins
|
0.72
|
1.28
|
6
|
8
|
6.72
|
9.28
|
7
|
9
|
AFC
|
East
|
9
|
Raiders
|
0.37
|
1.63
|
6
|
8
|
6.37
|
9.63
|
6
|
10
|
AFC
|
West
|
10
|
Bengals
|
0.67
|
1.33
|
5
|
9
|
5.67
|
10.33
|
6
|
10
|
AFC
|
North
|
11
|
Broncos
|
0.386
|
1.614
|
5
|
9
|
5.386
|
10.614
|
5
|
11
|
AFC
|
West
|
12
|
Jets
|
0.327
|
1.673
|
5
|
9
|
5.327
|
10.673
|
5
|
11
|
AFC
|
East
|
13
|
Texans
|
0.579
|
1.421
|
4
|
10
|
4.579
|
11.421
|
5
|
11
|
AFC
|
South
|
14
|
Colts
|
0.606
|
1.394
|
3
|
11
|
3.606
|
12.394
|
4
|
12
|
AFC
|
South
|
15
|
Browns
|
0.345
|
1.655
|
0
|
14
|
0.345
|
15.655
|
0
|
16
|
AFC
|
North
|
16
|
Eagles
|
1.475
|
0.525
|
12
|
2
|
13.475
|
2.525
|
13
|
3
|
NFC
|
East
|
1
|
Vikings
|
1.556
|
0.444
|
11
|
3
|
12.556
|
3.444
|
13
|
3
|
NFC
|
North
|
2
|
Saints
|
1.464
|
0.536
|
10
|
4
|
11.464
|
4.536
|
11
|
5
|
NFC
|
South
|
3
|
Panthers
|
1.506
|
0.494
|
10
|
4
|
11.506
|
4.494
|
12
|
4
|
NFC
|
South
|
4
|
Rams
|
1.165
|
0.835
|
10
|
4
|
11.165
|
4.835
|
11
|
5
|
NFC
|
West
|
5
|
Falcons
|
0.866
|
1.134
|
9
|
5
|
9.866
|
6.134
|
10
|
6
|
NFC
|
South
|
6
|
Seahawks
|
1.342
|
0.658
|
8
|
6
|
9.342
|
6.658
|
9
|
7
|
NFC
|
West
|
7
|
Lions
|
1.442
|
0.558
|
8
|
6
|
9.442
|
6.558
|
9
|
7
|
NFC
|
North
|
8
|
Cowboys
|
0.737
|
1.263
|
8
|
6
|
8.737
|
7.263
|
9
|
7
|
NFC
|
East
|
9
|
Packers
|
0.474
|
1.526
|
7
|
7
|
7.474
|
8.526
|
7
|
9
|
NFC
|
North
|
10
|
Redskins
|
1.65
|
0.35
|
6
|
8
|
7.65
|
8.35
|
8
|
8
|
NFC
|
East
|
11
|
Cardinals
|
1.125
|
0.875
|
6
|
8
|
7.125
|
8.875
|
7
|
9
|
NFC
|
West
|
12
|
Bears
|
0.96
|
1.04
|
4
|
10
|
4.96
|
11.04
|
5
|
11
|
NFC
|
North
|
13
|
49ers
|
0.822
|
1.178
|
4
|
10
|
4.822
|
11.178
|
5
|
11
|
NFC
|
West
|
14
|
Buccaneers
|
0.164
|
1.836
|
4
|
10
|
4.164
|
11.836
|
4
|
12
|
NFC
|
South
|
15
|
Giants
|
0.227
|
1.773
|
2
|
12
|
2.227
|
13.773
|
2
|
14
|
NFC
|
East
|
16
|
Suppose that the above playoff spot predictions are true. Then what happens? Using head to head predictions based on the season so far:
Wildcard:
Jaguars (3) vs. Bills (6) -> Jaguars (3) (0.569)
Chiefs (4) vs. Ravens (5) -> Ravens (5) (0.529)
Saints (3) vs. Falcons (6) -> Saints (3) (0.55)
Rams (4) vs. Panthers (5) -> Rams (4) (0.501)
Rams (4) vs. Panthers (5) -> Rams (4) (0.501)
Division:
Patriots (1) vs. Ravens (5) -> Patriots (1) (0.71)
Steelers (2) vs. Jaguars (3) -> Jaguars (3) (0.523)
Steelers (2) vs. Jaguars (3) -> Jaguars (3) (0.523)
Eagles (1) vs. Rams (4) -> Eagles (1) (0.501)
Vikings (2) vs. Saints (3) -> Vikings (2) (0.514)
Vikings (2) vs. Saints (3) -> Vikings (2) (0.514)
Conference:
Patriots (1) vs. Jaguars (3) -> Jaguars (3) (0.542)
Eagles (1) vs. Vikings (2) -> Vikings (2) (0.501)
Patriots (1) vs. Jaguars (3) -> Jaguars (3) (0.542)
Eagles (1) vs. Vikings (2) -> Vikings (2) (0.501)
Superbowl:
Vikings (2) vs. Jaguars (3) -> Jaguars (3) (0.509)
Shocking! The Jaguars will beat the Steelers, then the Patriots, before beating the Vikings in the Superbowl! I should note that I originally had the Eagles going all the way and winning the Superbowl, but after factoring in injuries into my model, this was enough to push the Eagles out. It's too bad Carson Wentz is injured, otherwise I would have the Eagles going all the way.
Best Team of 2017
If each team played every other team, who would come out on top? If measured by total probability of wins, the Patriots, Vikings, and Steelers take 1, 2, and 3. The Jaguars come in 4th. The Eagles are down in 9th (before injuries, they were at 3). The Giants, Texans, and Buccaneers, take 32,31, and 30. If measured by total games won, then the Jaguars, Vikings, and Eagles take 1, 2, and 3, while the Giants, Colts, and Buccaneers take 32,31, and 30. The Patriots drop to number 7.
What does this mean? In short, it means that the Patriots have the highest total probability of winning each game when they are predicted to win. However, they are predicted to win fewer times than other teams. As such, they are less consistent, prone to have a high probability of winning one week but then losing the next week by a narrow probability. Meanwhile, for example, the Vikings are the only team to appear in both top three lists, meaning that they are expected to win with a fairly high probability when they are predicted to win AND predicted to win every game. However, their total probabilities are lower than the Patriots, meaning that they are predicted to have closer victories than the Patriots, but more victories in total.
I should note that before factoring in injuries, the Eagles were my top choice. But after injuries and the loss of their QB, their ranking has significantly fallen.
I should note that before factoring in injuries, the Eagles were my top choice. But after injuries and the loss of their QB, their ranking has significantly fallen.
The Vikings appear in both lists at 2. Jaguars are at 4 and 1. Patriots are at 1 and 9. Eagles are at 9 and 3. Steelers are at 3 and 6. Any of these teams has a claim at being considered the best team of the season. Originally, I would have said the Eagles, as I had predicted them to win the Superbowl and they appeared in both top 3 lists. After factoring in injuries, total probability of winning, and total games predicted to win, I am inclined to pick the Jaguars with the Vikings barely behind. If the Jaguars can beat the Patriots, Steelers, and then beat the Vikings in the Superbowl as I have predicted, they will without a doubt be the best team of the year. Thus, I conclude that the Jaguars are (or will be) the best team of the year.
Total Probability:
Rank
|
Team
|
Expected Value
|
1
|
Patriots
|
23.376
|
2
|
Vikings
|
22.234
|
3
|
Steelers
|
22.124
|
4
|
Jaguars
|
21.967
|
5
|
Panthers
|
21.914
|
6
|
Rams
|
21.623
|
7
|
Saints
|
21.236
|
8
|
Falcons
|
21.046
|
9
|
Eagles
|
20.896
|
10
|
Chargers
|
20.286
|
11
|
Lions
|
19.844
|
12
|
Seahawks
|
19.799
|
13
|
Bills
|
19.246
|
14
|
Titans
|
19.121
|
15
|
49ers
|
18.623
|
16
|
Ravens
|
18.326
|
17
|
Cowboys
|
17.831
|
18
|
Chiefs
|
17.524
|
19
|
Dolphins
|
15.069
|
20
|
Bengals
|
15.046
|
21
|
Packers
|
14.251
|
22
|
Redskins
|
14.011
|
23
|
Cardinals
|
13.375
|
24
|
Bears
|
13.13
|
25
|
Raiders
|
11.364
|
26
|
Jets
|
10.437
|
27
|
Broncos
|
8.201
|
28
|
Browns
|
6.772
|
29
|
Colts
|
6.725
|
30
|
Buccaneers
|
6.511
|
31
|
Texans
|
6.315
|
32
|
Giants
|
3.777
|
Total Wins:
Rank
|
Team
|
Total Wins
|
1
|
Jaguars
|
32
|
2
|
Vikings
|
31
|
3
|
Eagles
|
30
|
4
|
Rams
|
29
|
5
|
Panthers
|
28
|
6
|
Steelers
|
27
|
7
|
Patriots
|
26
|
8
|
Saints
|
25
|
9
|
Falcons
|
24
|
10
|
Chargers
|
23
|
11
|
Lions
|
22
|
12
|
Seahawks
|
21
|
13
|
Bills
|
20
|
14
|
Titans
|
19
|
15
|
49ers
|
18
|
16
|
Ravens
|
17
|
17
|
Cowboys
|
16
|
18
|
Chiefs
|
15
|
19
|
Dolphins
|
14
|
20
|
Bengals
|
13
|
21
|
Packers
|
12
|
22
|
Redskins
|
11
|
23
|
Cardinals
|
10
|
24
|
Bears
|
9
|
25
|
Raiders
|
8
|
26
|
Jets
|
7
|
27
|
Broncos
|
6
|
28
|
Texans
|
5
|
29
|
Browns
|
4
|
30
|
Buccaneers
|
3
|
31
|
Colts
|
2
|
32
|
Giants
|
1
|
Averages:
Team
|
AverageRank
|
AverageWins
|
Jaguars
|
2.5
|
26.9835
|
Vikings
|
2
|
26.617
|
Eagles
|
6
|
25.448
|
Rams
|
5
|
25.3115
|
Panthers
|
5
|
24.957
|
Patriots
|
4
|
24.688
|
Steelers
|
4.5
|
24.562
|
Saints
|
7.5
|
23.118
|
Falcons
|
8.5
|
22.523
|
Chargers
|
10
|
21.643
|
Lions
|
11
|
20.922
|
Seahawks
|
12
|
20.3995
|
Bills
|
13
|
19.623
|
Titans
|
14
|
19.0605
|
49ers
|
15
|
18.3115
|
Ravens
|
16
|
17.663
|
Cowboys
|
17
|
16.9155
|
Chiefs
|
18
|
16.262
|
Dolphins
|
19
|
14.5345
|
Bengals
|
20
|
14.023
|
Packers
|
21
|
13.1255
|
Redskins
|
22
|
12.5055
|
Cardinals
|
23
|
11.6875
|
Bears
|
24
|
11.065
|
Raiders
|
25
|
9.682
|
Jets
|
26
|
8.7185
|
Broncos
|
27
|
7.1005
|
Texans
|
29.5
|
5.6575
|
Browns
|
28.5
|
5.386
|
Buccaneers
|
30
|
4.7555
|
Colts
|
30
|
4.3625
|
Giants
|
32
|
2.3885
|
Conclusion
So there you have it. If you haven't been paying attention all season, now having read this post, you can speak somewhat accurately about which teams are good, bad, and likely to make or do well in the playoffs. Just make sure no one asks you why...
Good luck!
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