2015 NFL Game Predictions: Week 4

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

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Week 4: Results

The predictions and the results are below.

My predictions went 9-6.  Not great, but a little better than just flipping a coin.  What happened?  What needs to improve?  Let’s look at each game where the prediction was wrong, and see what we can find:

·         Bears vs. Raiders

o   Predicted: 24% Bears likely to Lose, but Won.

o   Bears were 0-3 and Raiders were 2-1 going into this game.  Bears won 22-20, so it was close.  Jay Cutler (QB) was back after being out the previous week.  I expect that would help the Bears.  Other sites predicted a Bears loss.

·         Bills  vs. Giants

o   Predicted 65% Bills likely to Win, but lost.

o   Bills were 2-1 and Giants were 1-2 going into the game.  Giants clearly controlled the game throughout.  The final results was 24-10, so it wasn’t close.   Both sides are pretty injured, but perhaps the Giants are more injured.  Other sites predicted a Giants win.

·         Cardinals  vs. Rams

o   Predicted:  83% Cardinals likely to Win, but lost.

o   Cardinals were 3-0 and Rams were 1-2 going into the game.  Rams led the entire game, but it was always close and finished at 24-22.  Both teams are pretty healthy, but Cardinals were missing two wide receivers and their running back.  Other sites also predicted a Cardinals win.

·         Saints  vs. Cowboys

o   Predicted Saints to lose at 32%, but they won 26-20.

o    Saints were 0-3 and Cowboys were 2-1 going into the game.  The game went into overtime.  Cowboys were pretty injured, with major starters out (QB, WR), while Saints were pretty healthy.  Other sites predicted a Saints win, so in this I disagreed.

·         Redskins  vs. Eagles

o   Predicted Redskins to lose at 48%, but they won 23-20.

o   Redskins were 1-2 and Eagles were 1-2 going into the game.  The Redskins got ahead early but the Eagles came back heavily in the third quarter.  Eagles took the lead in the 4^th quarter but lost it with less than a minute to play.  Both teams have lots of injuries, but Redskins were a bit more beat up.  Other sites predicted a Redskins loss as well.

·         Steelers  vs. Ravens

o   Predicted Steelers to win at 73%, but they lost 23-20.

o   Steelers were 2-1 and Ravens were 0-3 going into the game.  The lead went back and forth and went into overtime.  Steelers were pretty injured, including starting and backup Qbs.  Ravens were also pretty injured.  Other sites predicted a Steelers loss, so in this I disagreed.

I was in agreement with other sites for 4 of these 6 games in my prediction.  Each of these games I had predicted the team with the better record to win.  Every game but one was close, and two went into overtime.  So these could have gone the other way pretty easily.  Some players were injured that weren’t injured in previous games and vice versa.  The difference in healthiness of each team seems to matter.  So going forward, it looks like I need to account for injuries in my model.  I also need less emphasis on who has the best record going into the game.  Instead, I should look at previous season records and also the strength of opponents in previous games this season.

I’ll make some adjustments and try again in a few weeks.

Week 4: First Published Predictions (Win/Lose)

I have to start somewhere, so this is where I am starting.  In alphabetical order, each team is listed with its associated next game.  Details include Home vs. Away, the Opponent, the Probability of Winning (according to my model) and the predicted result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss).  I'll analyze and comment after these games are played and the final results are in.

(Note: already I see issues.  For example, at least the Steelers vs. Ravens predictions are wrong because the Steelers starting QB is out.  Injuries to starters is something my model does not yet account for.  But it looks like it should.  Next time :) )

Team	HomeAway	Opponent	ProbabilityWin	PredictedTeamWin	ActualTeamWin
49ers		Packers	0.22	0	0
Bears		Raiders	0.24	0	1
Bengals		Chiefs	0.7	1	1
Bills		Giants	0.65	1	0
Broncos		Vikings	0.58	1	1
Browns	@	Chargers	0.5	0	0
Buccaneers		Panthers	0.24	0	0
Cardinals		Rams	0.83	1	0
Chargers		Browns	0.5	1	1
Chiefs	@	Bengals	0.3	0	0
Colts		Jaguars	0.55	1	1
Cowboys	@	Saints	0.68	1	0
Dolphins		Jets	0.3	0	0
Eagles	@	Redskins	0.52	1	0
Falcons		Texans	0.69	1	1
Giants	@	Bills	0.35	0	1
Jaguars	@	Colts	0.45	0	0
Jets	@	Dolphins	0.7	1	1
Lions	@	Seahawks	0.3	0	0
Packers	@	49ers	0.78	1	1
Panthers	@	Buccaneers	0.76	1	1
Raiders	@	Bears	0.76	1	0
Rams	@	Cardinals	0.17	0	1
Ravens	@	Steelers	0.27	0	1
Redskins		Eagles	0.48	0	1
Saints		Cowboys	0.32	0	1
Seahawks		Lions	0.7	1	1
Steelers		Ravens	0.73	1	0
Texans	@	Falcons	0.31	0	0
Vikings	@	Broncos	0.42	0	0

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