2015 NFL Game Predictions: SuperBowl

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous predictions:

• Conference Championships
• Division Week
• WildCard Week
• Week 17
• Week 16
• Week 15
• Week 14
• Week 13
• Week 11
• Week 8
• Week 4

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Superbowl Recap:

Anything is possible!  As you already know, the Broncos beat the Panthers in the Superbowl.  So my predictions were 0-1.  Oh well.  And with that, the 2015 NFL season is over, as are my predictions for the regular season.  Check in every now and then for football related posts during the offseason, as well as posts and analyses on other topics.  Predictions will resume this coming Fall!

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Prob. Win	Pred. Team Win	Actual Team Win	Pred. Team PD	Actual Team PD	Pred. Team Score	Pred. Opp. Score	Actual Team Score	Actual Opp. Score
SuperBowl	2/7/2016	Broncos	@	Panthers	0.408	0	1	-4	14	20	24	24	10
SuperBowl	2/7/2016	Panthers	@	Broncos	0.592	1	0	4	-14	24	20	10	24

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Superbowl Prediction:

It's finally here: the Superbowl!  And there are only two teams left: the Broncos and the Panthers.  Who will win? Pro Football Reference gives the Panthers a 65% chance of winning.  Bing gives the Panthers a 64.4% chance of winning.  What do I say?

• Broncos (1) vs. Panthers (1)  -> Panthers (0.592)

My model agrees: the Panthers will win the Superbowl.  However, my model is a bit more favorable towards the Broncos, giving them a 41% change of winning as opposed to a 35% chance.  Still, all of my models are in agreement on the final outcome.  Panthers should win by 4, and the final score should by Panthers 24, Broncos 20.  So I am pretty confident that the Panthers will in fact win.

But as is always the case, you never really know.  Anything is possible...  Good luck!

Here are the full predictions for the Superbowl:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Probability Win	Predicted Team Win	Predicted Team Point Difference	Predicted Team Score	Predicted Opponent Score
SuperBowl	2/7/2016	Broncos	@	Panthers	0.408	0	-4	20	24
SuperBowl	2/7/2016	Panthers	@	Broncos	0.592	1	4	24	20