2015 NFL Game Predictions: Conference Championships and Playoff Predictions

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous predictions:

Division Week
WildCard Week
Week 17
Week 16
Week 15
Week 14
Week 13
Week 11
Week 8
Week 4

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Recap:

1-1, with an expected value of 1.14.  I am pleased I was not correct in my prediction of the Broncos vs. Patriots game, as is probably everyone except for Patriots fans.  Still, the Panthers destroyed the Cardinals, and so we have a Broncos vs. Panthers Superbowl.  I had predicted the Patriots to win the Superbowl, but they were matched against the Panthers who will be in it, so I wasn't too far off.

Who will win the Superbowl?  I had said that the Broncos had only a 41% chance of beating the Patriots, but they did.  According to last week's numbers, I would give the Broncos a 43% chance of beating the Panthers.  Given the Panther's overwhelmingly dominant play against the Cardinals, I will be surprised if the Broncos can pull off another upset.  But I hope they do :)  I'll run the numbers again next week for a final prediction on the Superbowl results.

Below are the final results for the Conference Championships.  The Broncos beat each of my models, though the point differences and final scores were not too far off.  The Panthers won as I had predicted, but by a much larger margin than I (or anyone) predicted.

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Prob. Win	Pred. Team Win	Actual Team Win	Pred. Team PD	Actual Team PD	Pred. Team Score	Pred. Opp. Score	Actual Team Score	Actual Opp. Score
Conf Champ	1/24/2016	Broncos		Patriots	0.409	0	1	-4	2	20	25	20	18
Conf Champ	1/24/2016	Cardinals	@	Panthers	0.449	0	0	-2	-34	25	24	15	49
Conf Champ	1/24/2016	Panthers		Cardinals	0.551	1	1	2	34	24	25	49	15
Conf Champ	1/24/2016	Patriots	@	Broncos	0.591	1	0	4	-2	25	20	18	20

 

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Conference Championships and Playoff Predictions:

Both the Panthers and Patriots advanced to the conference championships as I predicted, although the Steelers and Packers both got knocked out.  Still, the final outcome is still possible, though perhaps not desirable for most of us: Patriots vs. Panthers in the Superbowl.  This still appears to be the most likely outcome.
  

Conference Championships:

AFC:

Broncos (1) vs. Patriots (2)  -> Patriots (0.591)

NFC:

Panthers (1) vs. Cardinals (2) -> Panthers (0.551)

Superbowl:

Patriots (2) vs. Panthers (1)  -> Patriots (0.524)

The model still picks the Patriots to win the Superbowl against the Panthers, and this is slightly more likely than last week although not by much. 

As far as the conference championships are concerned, all three of my models are in agreement that the Patriots will beat the Broncos.  Two of my models predict that the Panthers will beat the Cardinals, while one (the final score prediction) gives the Cardinals the game by 1 point.  While the Cardinals/Panthers game may be a closer game to predict, I'd still favor the Panthers to win.  As much as I'd like to see a Broncos vs. Cardinals Superbowl, it is not likely to happen.

But you never know.  Anything is possible... Good luck in the Conference Championships!

Here are the full predictions for the Conference Championships:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Probability Win	Predicted Team Win	Predicted Team Point Difference	Predicted Team Score	Predicted Opponent Score
Conf Champ	1/24/2016	Broncos		Patriots	0.409	0	-4	20	25
Conf Champ	1/24/2016	Cardinals	@	Panthers	0.449	0	-2	25	24
Conf Champ	1/24/2016	Panthers		Cardinals	0.551	1	2	24	25
Conf Champ	1/24/2016	Patriots	@	Broncos	0.591	1	4	25	20